MLB Pick: Angels ML (+170) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with last night’s Rickwood Field Game participants getting a day off. We are 4-1-1 in the last six plays, and as usual, we have another three best bets for today’s slate available at top sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model and the latest MLB odds. Our model favors a side in the Freeway Series Friday night with the Angels visiting the Dodgers.
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, June 21, 2024 – 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
We feel that an upset is afoot Friday in Los Angeles, so we are supporting the underdog Angels with Patrick Sandoval when they visit Landon Knack and the Dodgers in the Freeway Series.
Better Than the ERA
Sandoval comes in at 2-8 with a 5.24 ERA, but a quick glance at his much better 3.87 xFIP is an indication that the news is not all bad. In fact, his strikeout rate of 9.31/9 is at its highest point since 2021 and he combines that nicely with a good groundball rate of 44.2%. The ERA stems from being very unlucky.
We mean that literally as Patrick has suffered in the Luck stats, with a high BABIP allowed of .342 and a low strand rate of 64.5%. And that strand rate is even more unlucky for a guy with a good strikeout rate to strand more runners. Patrick has a career 4.03 ERA that aligns with a career 4.02 xFIP, so look for his ERA to positively regress toward those figures as the Luck stats normalize.
Not Worth This Price
The Dodgers have injuries in their starting rotation, which has pressed Knack into making his fifth start in his first taste of the Major Leagues. While he has a 2.67 ERA over his first four starts covering 20.2 innings, his metrics do not nearly support that ERA. He certainly seems overvalued as nearly a -190 favorite at this point in his young career, especially after probably being rushed up sooner than the Dodgers wanted to fill the injury void.
Landon owns a 4.48 xFIP that belies the ERA, and he combines a weak K/BB ratio of 6.97/2.61 per nine innings with a nondescript 37.3% groundball rate. He has an ugly soft/hard contact ratio of 13.6% / 40.7% but has escaped with a miniscule .196 BABIP that is certainly unsustainable. And he has lucked out even further for a pitcher without an abundance of strikeouts with an 89.9% strand rate.
The Pick
With positive regression expected for Sandoval and with Knack being extremely lucky over four Major League starts, bet on the Angels to pull the upset at an inflated price at Dodger Stadium.
Predicted Score: Angels 5 – Dodgers 3
MLB Pick: Angels ML (+170) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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