NCAAF Pick: Under 10.5 Wins (-180) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
For most other programs, 2022 would have been a remarkable success, but things are different in Alabama.
Yes, the Crimson Tide won their first six games, including a thrilling win at Texas and a four-point win over new rival Texas A&M, and yes, the Tide finished with four straight wins, including a 22-point blowout of rival Auburn and a 25-point Sugar Bowl win over Kansas State, clinching an 11-win season.
Will Alabama be able to achieve the same amount of wins in 2023? The top offshore sportsbooks are setting the over/under at 10.5 victories for the season.
Key Facts
- Alabama missed the College Football Playoff for just the second time ever last year.
- The Tide will have a new quarterback, among other positions transitioning.
- The O-line is talented but lacks the depth of previous seasons.
Down year … for Alabama
In 2022, there were no titles in ‘Bama. The Tide missed the College Football Playoff for just the second time in the nine-year history of the playoff. Heck, it’s only the third time over that span they haven’t been in the National Championship Game. They also didn’t win the SEC or even their division, losing to LSU on a tiebreaker.
Four points spoiled the Alabama year. The Tide lost at Tennessee by three and LSU by one, dropping two regular season games and sending the season down in flames.
As usual, Alabama also sent a whole host of players to the NFL, meaning there will be plenty of personnel transition decisions to make as Nick Saban prepares for 2023.
Offense
Tops on the reload/rebuild list is quarterback, where former Heisman winner Bryce Young was taken first overall in the draft. Everyone has an opinion over which player in the three-man race to replace Young will come out on top. Julian Sayin was last year’s backup, and he rushed for 91 yards to help beat Arkansas when Young was hurt. But of Alabama’s 16 turnovers on offense last year, Sayin produced five of them, and he only started one game.
Ty Simpson, a five-star last year, could be the favorite, although he’s coming off an off-season elbow problem. If neither of them is up to the job, Alabama also has Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner.
Whoever gets the job will have an upgraded set of targets. The Tide return their top two receivers in Jermaine Burton (40 for 677 and 7 scores) and Ja’Corey Brooks (39 for 674 and 8). They also add JUCO transfer Malik Benson and Maryland transfer CJ Dippre.
At running back, Bama has Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams, who combined for 905 yards and 11 touchdowns. They add freshman Justice Haynes, who could be a factor. The line has talent but depth may be shorter than in previous seasons.
Defense
This side of the ball has a hole as big as Young’s departure on offense, with pass-rushing superstar Will Anderson also departed to the NFL. The linebacker corps is loaded with players looking to step up and seize the opportunity to lead the defense. Chris Braswell and Dallas Turner will take the outside pass-rushing spots, and the inside is loaded, with Georgia transfer, Trezmen Marshall added to a group that includes Deontae Lawson, Jihaad Campbell and Justin Jefferson.
On the line, Justin Eboigbe returns from injury and joins a group that includes Tim Smith, Jaheim Otis, and Jah-Marien Latham.
The secondary should also be a strength, led by corner Kool-Aid McKinstry, Louisiana transfer Trey Amos and safeties Malachi Moore, UAB transfer Jaylen Key and freshman Caleb Downs.
Schedule
Will Alabama lose two regular season games again? Again, while other programs would be happy with the outlook for 2023, Saban will be motivating his team by the disrespect it is receiving in the preseason.
The Tide are “only” ranked fourth in the nation, and they weren’t the favorite to win the SEC at preseason media day. The last time that happened was 2015, and Bama went on to win both the SEC and the national title that year.
Bama hosts Texas, who nearly upset the Tide in Austin last year, in Week Two.
That game may determine whether Alabama can dodge the dreaded two-loss season because the SEC slate will be tough to navigate unbeaten.
Back-to-back trips to Mississippi State (Week 5) and A&M (Week 6), bookended by home games against Ole Miss (Week 4) and Arkansas (Week 7), is a tough stretch, and it ends with Tennessee (Week 8) coming to town.
November features LSU (Week 10), a trip to Kentucky (Week 11) and the Iron Bowl on the road (Auburn – Week 13).
The Pick
Bama will have new faces at key spots on the field and a killer schedule. That means another “down” year for the Tide. We’re looking for 10 wins or less.
NCAAF Pick: Under 10.5 Wins (-180) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product
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