NFL Pick: 2023 AFC East– Buffalo Bills (+120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Shifting from its historical dominance by the New England Patriots, the AFC East has experienced a dramatic reversal of fortunes. Presently, it is the Patriots who find themselves without a definitive franchise quarterback, gazing upward at the other trio of teams. Each of these teams harbors playoff aspirations for the year 2023.
The Buffalo Bills aim to secure their divisional victory for the fourth consecutive season, a feat not achieved since 1988-91. However, their path is contested by the Jets, who secured Aaron Rodgers, and the Dolphins, who posed strong challenges to the Bills in their matchups last season.
The forthcoming NFL season might witness one of the most compelling divisional races, especially given the remarkably tight futures odds among the top three contenders in this division. The outcomes of their scheduled games possess the potential to significantly mold the narrative of the 2023 season, impacting factors ranging from the MVP accolade to the eventual Super Bowl champion.
The pivotal question remains: amidst this heated competition, which team stands as the wisest wager to emerge victorious in the AFC East?
Quick Overview
Here are the current AFC East odds from the top offshore sportsbooks, for the 2023-24 NFL season, as of August 16, 2023.
Key Facts
- Averaging the last three seasons, the Buffalo Bills are statistically the league leaders in scoring (29.4 PPG) and defense (19.4 PPG) and not so coincidentally have won the AFC East the last three consecutive years.
- The Bills have averaged 12.3 wins per season over the last three years and were ranked No. 2 in total yards per game (397.6 YPG) and points per game (28.4 PPG), trailing only the Chiefs in both of those categories in the 2022 season.
- New York’s Aaron Rodgers will be 40 in December and is coming off his worst statistical year with 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 3,695 yards passing in 17 games last year.
- Miami needed to retool its defense after finishing 24th in points allowed, surrendering 23.5 points per game, and 27th in passing yards allowed (234.8 YPG) so they signed 6x Pro-Bowler Jalen Ramsey and landed a new defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio.
- As Mac Jones goes, so too goes the New England Patriots. And with a new offensive coordinator, many expect him to be closer to his impressive rookie campaign than his underwhelming sophomore season in which he regressed in all major statistical categories.
Buffalo Bills
- 2022 Record (13-3)
- Super Bowl Odds: +950
Josh Allen is just one of many top-tier quarterbacks waiting to catch the brass ring – or in this case, hoist the Lombardi Trophy aloft. Yet, it is not as though he and his team haven’t tried, as the Bills own the top-scoring offense (29.4 PPG) and stingiest defense (19.4 PPG) over the last three seasons.
This group has also won the AFC East over the last three consecutive years and has averaged 12.3 wins per season during that time. Last year, they were second in total yards, averaging over 397 yards per game, and scoring production (28.4 PPG) which trailed only the Super Bowl winner Kansas City Chiefs.
Single Digit
Of Buffalo’s three losses last season – by a combined eight points – two of those came to teams within their division (Dolphins and Jets). The Bills avenged one of those narrow losses in the wild-card round of the playoffs when they defeated the Dolphins 34-31. However, the Bills would fall to the Bengals in the next round, 27-10, but they remain the team to beat in the AFC East.
This year should be more of the same. They drafted wisely in selecting an outstanding tight end in the opening round when they chose Utah’s Dalton Kincaid who will give Allen even more options in twin-tight end sets when paired with one of the best dual-purpose ends in the league, veteran Dawson Knox.
Viable Contender
Moreover, Buffalo’s offense could be even more prolific this season as the front office retooled a very average offensive line and signed former Patriot, Damien Harris, to share time in the backfield with James Cook.
As for the defense, it will remain stout which makes this Buffalo edition not only a division winner but a viable Super Bowl contender, something no other team in the AFC East can claim.
New York Jets
- 2022 Record (7-10)
- Super Bowl Odds: +1600
Unless you’ve been living under a rock then you have no doubt heard that Aaron Rodgers is a J-E-T…Jet! And because of that, Gang Green has some serious street cred this year as they come equipped with an elite defense – ranked fourth in points allowed last season – and a future Hall-of-Famer under center.
However, Rodgers will be 40 in December and is coming off his worst statistical year with 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 3,695 yards passing in 17 games. I’m not sure why nobody is factoring that into the equation when the Jets hype train goes into overdrive but it is a very real concern and one that has me leaning quite heavily on betting under 9 ½ to 10 wins, depending on where you shop for your NFL odds.
Young Potential
And when discussing the weapons that the Jets have given to Rodgers, one name and one name only stands out, second-year wideout Garrett Wilson, even though he is suffering from an ankle injury.
The Jets bolstered an already stellar defense by taking Iowa State linebacker Will McDonald IV in the first round and then got more protection for Rodgers by selecting Wisconsin center Joe Tippmann in the second round.
But where are the skill players? Outside of Wilson, the Jets have reunited Rodgers with former Green Bay teammates Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb who join Mecole Hardman Jr. and Corey Davis in the wide receiving stable. At running back, Breece Hall will be running the rock, along with Dalvin Cook. Are you impressed? Me neither.
Miami Dolphins
- 2022 Record (9-8)
- Super Bowl Odds: +2200
It’s hard not to get excited if you’re a Fish fan with the electric Tua Tagovailoa scrambling all over the field in search of the most exciting one-two punch in the game with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as targets.
Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. will split time in the backfield and although there are better backfield tandems in the league, this one is not bad. They will also be joined by Texas A&M tailback De’Von Achane whom Miami plucked in the third round of this year’s draft.
Miami needed to retool its defense after finishing 24th in points allowed, surrendering 23.5 points per game, and 27th in passing yards allowed (234.8 YPG) so they signed 6x Pro-Bowler Jalen Ramsey and landed a new defensive coordinator in Vic Fangio.
Biggest Concern
The biggest concern with this Dolphins iteration is the same as the one last year and the year before that – the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He’s concussion prone, to begin with, and should his brain get scrambled again it could be a season-ending injury. It would also question the wisdom of his returning to play in a league where violence is rampant and head injuries are common.
If Tua does go down, Mike White, formerly of the Jets, will assume the reins under center. Without Tua’s mobility on the ground and alacrity through the air, the offense will slow down and any postseason aspirations the Dolphins had entering this season will likely be doomed unless White can sustain the flashes of brilliance we saw from him in New York.
New England Patriots
- 2022 Record (8-9)
- Super Bowl Odds: +5000
How do we gauge the Patriots’ starting quarterback, Mac Jones, after two distinctly different seasons? Jones’ rookie year he was better than many anticipated and exactly what his most ardent fans had hoped. The former first-round pick out of Alabama connected on 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,801 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 13 picks. It wasn’t a Rookie of the Year caliber season but it was a promising start and gave Jones a much higher ceiling than many had previously believed.
However, Bill Belichick decided he wasn’t going to formally replace his offensive guru, Josh McDaniels, and instead put a man in charge of the offense who had made his NFL bones on defense, Matt Patricia. It was an arrogant choice and one that had grave consequences not only for the offense but Jones’ growth as a young quarterback in this league.
Sophomore Regression
Last year, Jones’ regressed in every stat that mattered. His completion rate dipped to 65.2 percent while his passing numbers also suffered as evidenced by his 2,997 passing yards, as did his 14:11 touchdown to interception ratio. It seemed the only one who was surprised by this decline was Belichick himself. Does anyone still debate who was responsible for the Patriots’ two decades of dominance – Belichick or Brady?
At least this season Belichick has seen the error of his ways or felt the looming presence of owner Bob Kraft’s hammer. Belichick is on the hot seat for the first time in his 20-plus seasons as the Patriots head coach and rightfully summoned another offensive guru, Bill O’Brien, who worked with Jones at Alabama.
Better Receivers
With that, I see a major uptick in the offense and the receiving corps consisting of JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and the dragster Tyquan Thornton. This group will be much better than many believe as they will have the benefit of a real OC drawing up plays. New England also boasts one of the better tight-end tandems in Hunter Henry and former Dolphin Mike Gesicki.
The Patriots’ defense is sound and should be much better against the pass with first-round pick Christian Gonzalez bolstering an already stellar secondary. The biggest problem the Patriots have is a suspect offensive line that has not gotten appreciably better since last season.
Belichick didn’t pick an offensive lineman in the draft until the fourth and fifth rounds.
I see New England as being better than most and could likely slide into a wild-card spot but then make a quick postseason exit.
NFL Pick: 2023 AFC East– Buffalo Bills (+120) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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