NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns To Finish 4th in AFC North +190 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Since the 1970 NFL merger, there have only been three seasons where all the division winners in the AFC repeated as division champions the following year. It first happened in 1975-76, and it did not happen again until 2011-12 and 2018-19.
Repeating that success is difficult in the NFL, but some teams are safer bets to finish at the bottom of a division. The Jets and Broncos have finished 4th (last) in their divisions the last 3 seasons. Both are expected to do better this year, but the ability to visit one of our best U.S. betting sites and bet on exactly where a team will finish in its division can be a great betting market to take advantage of.
We are looking at our best bets for the exact division finish in the AFC this season.
AFC North – Cleveland Browns Finish 4th
- +190 at BetOnline
Since the 2002 realignment, the Browns have finished 4th in the AFC North in 14-of-21 seasons, including last year when they were 7-10. So, two-thirds of the time, the Browns bring up the rear in this tough division. They even finished the last 7 years in a row back in 2011-17.
It is not like the division has gotten any easier. The Bengals have won it the last two years and have reached the AFC Championship Game in back-to-back seasons behind Joe Burrow. That offense should still be one of the best in the league after adding left tackle Orlando Brown Jr.
The Ravens usually finish ahead of Cleveland too, and Lamar Jackson has a lot to prove after ending the last two seasons injured in December after good starts for the team. He has a new offensive coordinator and more weapons than ever. Baltimore also still has one of the top veteran coaches in John Harbaugh, and the best kicker ever in Justin Tucker.
The Steelers have finished ahead of Cleveland in the standings every year since 1990. Pittsburgh also has not had a losing season since 2003. Both streaks are likely to end soon, but Pittsburgh pairs some elite defenders (T.J. Watt, Cameron Heyward, Minkah Fitzpatrick) with intriguing young skill players (Kenny Pickett, Najee Harris, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth).
The only concern is retaining offensive coordinator Matt Canada instead of giving someone new the job to help these young players make a huge leap.
Why Betting on the Browns?
However, Cleveland actually got a 1-1 split in all division series last season and still finished last in the AFC North. The Browns also got a little lucky in beating the Steelers early in the year without T.J. Watt, the Bengals without Ja’Marr Chase, and the Ravens in December without Lamar Jackson. All the wins were at home too.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson looked terrible last year in taking over for Jacoby Brissett, who is no longer with the team. Watson should do better with a full offseason, but he still takes too many sacks and was 4-12 as a starter in his last full season.
With a coach, quarterback, and defense that may still be the worst in the division in 2023, the best AFC North bet is on the Browns to finish last again.
NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns To Finish 4th in AFC North +190 at BetOnline
AFC East – New England Patriots To Finish 4th
- -110 at BetOnline
Similar to the Browns, the Patriots play in a stacked division. The quarterback disparity may be the biggest in the NFL as Mac Jones, in his third year, will try to compete with MVP favorite Josh Allen (Bills), 2022’s passing efficiency leader Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), and future first-ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers (Jets).
Jones really struggled last year in an offense clumsily coordinated by Matt Patricia and Joe Judge. Bill Belichick needed help and brought back Bill O’Brien to call the plays, so that should at least improve the team.
But the loss of talent over the years and questionable drafts have led to a New England roster that plays some fundamentally sound ball because of Belichick, but it lacks the elite talent needed to beat more good opponents and win higher-scoring games. The Patriots lack the horses to win a shootout with Patrick Mahomes or Burrow these days.
The Patriots were also very sloppy with the ball at times last season, including a fumble near the goal line during a comeback attempt against the Bengals, and of course, they blew things with an ill-advised lateral in Las Vegas that was returned for a game-ending touchdown.
As much as people want to predict the Bills to fall off, that is still a top-tier NFL team with one of the best quarterbacks. They may have their playoff struggles, but they do well in the regular season against most teams.
Promising Outlooks and Changing Tides
The Dolphins had a good 9-8 years under new coach Mike McDaniel even if it was up and down with winning and losing streaks, but a lot of that had to do with Tua’s concussions. Hopefully, for everyone’s sake, he avoids those this year and improves on a season that saw him lead the NFL in a variety of passing efficiency stats.
That elite speed from the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is tough to deal with.
The Jets also can be a great team if Rodgers plays like the quarterback we know he can be. He will have his old offensive coordinator (Nathaniel Hackett) from Green Bay, a few familiar receivers (Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb), and a legit No. 1 wide receiver again (Garrett Wilson), and he could have his best running game in years, and his best defense since 2010.
The Jets have lost 14 straight games to the Patriots, but that should end in 2023. That reversal of fortune also should help sink the Patriots to the bottom of the AFC East for the first time since 2000, the year Belichick became head coach. Now, he is really feeling the sting of not having a franchise quarterback while the rest of the division has found options.
NFL Pick: New England Patriots To Finish 4th in AFC East -110 at BetOnline
AFC West – Denver Broncos To Finish 2nd
- +270 at BetOnline
Denver has not won more than 7 games in any season since 2016 (9-7 finish), so it has been a rough era of football for Broncos fans. Things were supposed to be looking up last year when quarterback Russell Wilson joined the team, but right from Week 1 the Broncos ended up being a huge disappointment, finishing 5-12 and dead last in scoring.
But between the offensive injuries and blowing 5 fourth-quarter leads, the Broncos were already poised for some positive regression in 2023. Add in a Hall of Fame-caliber head coach Sean Payton who can fix the offense, and the Broncos are a fun dark horse pick to seriously challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West.
At the very least, Denver needs to end the 15-game losing streak to the Chiefs. Oddly enough, Wilson played some of his best ball last year against the Chiefs despite getting swept. Denver only had 4 games all season where it scored 24 points, but they all came in Week 14 and later.
The defense has the chance to remain the best in the division. The offense is where things need to make huge strides, but that is possible when you give Payton a healthy Javonte Williams at running back and work on that solid connection Wilson had with Jerry Jeudy.
The defense was always the killer for Payton in New Orleans, and it was never the offense that was the issue during those non-playoff years. This is a coach who has won over 63% of his games and been to the playoffs 9 times.
Coaching Impact in the AFC West
We saw how huge coaching is in the AFC West last year. That explains why Andy Reid and the Chiefs remained on top despite losing Tyreek Hill. Coaching explains why the Broncos were a disaster as Nathaniel Hackett was in over his head. It also showed up significantly with the Raiders, who found incredible ways to blow 6 fourth-quarter leads and a record number of 17-point leads.
But it was the Chargers who blew a 27-0 lead in a playoff game to the Jaguars as Brandon Staley continues to fail in giving Justin Herbert a defense. The Chargers also have some key players like Joey Bosa and Mike Williams who you cannot rely on to stay healthy for a full season.
If Payton can fix the offense and especially Wilson, then the Broncos should be able to win 10 games again and make the playoffs. The Chiefs likely still win enough to win the division, but the Chargers and Raiders are not trustworthy enough to slot them over Denver. Payton will make a difference this year.
NFL Pick: Denver Broncos To Finish 2nd in AFC West +270 at BetOnline
AFC South – Indianapolis Colts To Finish 2nd
- +250 at BetOnline
You could argue this division is the easiest and hardest to predict at the same time this year. The Jaguars -170 at BetOnline have the best NFL odds in the AFC at winning their division, but would it surprise anyone if the team that started 3-7 before the bye and trailed 27-0 in a playoff game would disappoint this year?
But Jacksonville should win the division again thanks to being the only team thriving at quarterback and head coach. Trevor Lawrence is getting MVP buzz and Doug Pederson has already won a Super Bowl with the Eagles.
The Texans have rookies in head coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Colts have rookies in head coach Shane Steichen and quarterback Anthony Richardson. Mike Vrabel’s Titans drafted Will Levis but will likely roll with Ryan Tannehill for another year. Expectations are low for the Titans after losing 7 straight games to end 2022.
Houston made bold moves in the draft, but it will likely take a couple of years to give that team an identity and get back to competing. Stroud is far from a sure thing at quarterback given the long history of Ohio State passers not excelling in the NFL.
Stroud also does not utilize running ability like Richardson (and No. 1 pick Bryce Young). That mobility at quarterback in Indianapolis could be a huge benefit to the team, which was favored last year to do damage before a massively disappointing season under Frank Reich and Matt Ryan.
Reimagining the Colts
Steichen takes over as head coach, and he will try to do the Jalen Hurts approach he took in Philadelphia with Richardson, who is a bit raw as a passer, but he has the ability to run like a Cam Newton or Lamar Jackson in this league. Putting a legit runner like Jonathan Taylor in the backfield with him should be successful if the offensive line can play better this year.
The Colts should also get more than 3 games out of star linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who was injured last season. The Colts blew an NFL record 33-0 lead to the Vikings, blew several other double-digit leads, and they were the only team to hold Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts under 20 points last year.
Building around the run with Richardson and Taylor and getting healthier on defense should be enough to give the Colts a much better season, but one that still ultimately comes up short of a division title in a weak division.
NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts Finish 2nd in AFC South +250 at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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