Super Bowl LVIII is a high-quality matchup with the San Francisco 49ers having the No. 3 scoring offense paired with the No. 3 scoring defense. The Chiefs are the No. 2 scoring defense, and despite rumors of their decline, they still have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce playing at a high level together to lead the offense.
However, not everyone is coming into this Super Bowl on a hot streak.
We look at some of the players for both teams who are coming in at their best and those who may not meet expectations come Super Bowl Sunday. It is up to you to decide who is included in your plays at the top-rated online sportsbooks.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Hot: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
It is still great to be Travis Kelce.
Despite being under the microscope more than ever, the 34-year-old tight end has got through his challenging year. He is now playing his best football going into another Super Bowl.
Kelce did snap his streak of 1,000-yard seasons this year when he finished with 984 yards. He averaged a career-low 10.6 yards per catch, the 1st season he was ever under 12.2. He’s dropped 10 passes and was starting to really look his age, which is an age where practically no tight ends are still playing at a high level.
However, we have to consider that Kelce was injured in practice in Week 1. He missed the opener against Detroit. Then there was that scary injury situation in Minnesota where he slammed his helmet. It raised concerns that his season may have just ended. But he returned to that game and played the following week.
The full extent of that injury may never be known. However, with Kelce getting a week off in the regular season finale, it appeared to have done wonders for his body and mindset going into the playoffs.
Good Old Kelce
In the postseason, Kelce is back to his old tricks, catching 23-of-27 targets for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns. His 16 touchdowns in the playoffs from Patrick Mahomes give them the record for a duo.
Kelce played his best game of the year in the AFC Championship Game in Baltimore.
You could see he was locked in from the opening drive where he caught a big 4th-down catch, then beat safety Kyle Hamilton for a touchdown, the only time this year Hamilton gave up a touchdown to a tight end. Kelce caught all 11 of his targets for 116 yards.
He’ll be ready to perform at a high level against the 49ers, and if there has ever been a situation where a tight end could win Super Bowl MVP for the first time, this could be the game. Kelce is still by far Mahomes’ most trusted target.
Not Hot: 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk
When people talk about the weapons in San Francisco, they tend to overlook Brandon Aiyuk for Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle.
Fox analyst Greg Olsen did this during a playoff game where he mentioned all those players and not Aiyuk, who led the 49ers this year with 1,342 receiving yards, 12.8 yards per target, and his 70.5% receiving success rate was the highest among anyone in the NFL with at least 50 targets this year.
Aiyuk is the best natural route runner in San Francisco. His connection with Brock Purdy has looked strong since Week 1 when they lit up the Steelers in Pittsburgh. However, despite some very favorable matchups in the postseason against Green Bay and Detroit, this connection has not been clicking as well.
Playoff Performance
In the playoffs, Aiyuk has caught 6-of-14 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. Those numbers are not horrible until you recognize that more than half of those yards (51 to be exact) came on a fluke play against the Lions. The pass hit off the defender’s facemask and Aiyuk caught the reflection for the biggest play of the game.
Without that lucky bounce, there is no 51-yard gain and there is no touchdown by Aiyuk to finish that drive. There may not even be a San Francisco comeback without that play.
However, even the Green Bay game was disappointing. Aiyuk’s 32 yards were his fewest this year in a game with Purdy at quarterback. One of his catches was an adjustment to a very low ball too, so maybe this issue is more with the quarterback than the wide receiver. Nonetheless, it’s unlikely to get better in the Super Bowl as the Chiefs have some real standout corners in Trent McDuffie and L’Jarius Sneed.
The 49ers may need to rely more on those other weapons in the Super Bowl than on their best boundary wide receiver.
Hot: 49ers DE Nick Bosa
Nick Bosa took a step back from his 2022 Defensive Player of the Year season. He still had a quality Pro Bowl year with 10.5 sacks, 35 quarterback hits, and 44 pressures.
However, after getting close with 5 pressures against Green Bay, Bosa found that extra gear and got to Jared Goff for a pair of sacks in the NFC Championship Game. He also generated 7 pressures according to Next Gen Stats, but none of those came when he was guarded by standout Detroit tackle Penei Sewell.
Bosa will not face a tackle of that caliber in the Super Bowl.
He’ll also be ready for some revenge after he was close to Mahomes on that infamous 3rd-and-15 that largely decided the last Super Bowl between these teams. The 49ers didn’t get home and Mahomes found Tyreek Hill for 44 yards.
If anyone is going to get Mahomes down in the big moment this time, it has to be Bosa on this defense.
Not Hot: 49ers K Jake Moody
If we are talking about a kicker this time of year, chances are it’s not good news.
The 49ers used the 99th pick in the draft this year on kicker Jake Moody. It is always questioned when a team uses that high of a pick on a kicker when you can always find them later.
It also seems to put unfair expectations on the player as his draft status will always be brought up, adding pressure for him to always perform well. Kicker is such a mental position to begin with, so using a top 100 pick on a kicker just doesn’t seem like a good idea.
Facing Pressure
Moody has not been bad this year.
He has made 21-of-25 field goals in the regular season. However, he’s not been great at some key times. Moody missed a 41-yard field goal that would have won the game in Cleveland earlier this season. Instead, the 49ers lost 19-17.
Moody also had early misses on field goals in these playoff games against the Packers and Lions. He did at least redeem himself on a 52-yard field goal to start the 4th quarter against Green Bay.
However, there is definitely a kicker advantage for the Chiefs. They have Harrison Butker, a great long-distance kicker with a good history in clutch situations. We said Moody was solid with 21-of-25 made field goals, but that 84% only ranked 20th in the league this season. Also, only 60% of his kickoffs were touchbacks, the 4th-lowest rate in 2023. He was just 2-of-3 on 50-yard field goals, so long-distance kicks do not seem to be his jam.
We’ll see what happens if Moody is put in a Scott Norwood type of situation to possibly win this game for the 49ers. The pressure will be unreal on the rookie in a moment like that, so you can bet he hopes to see his teammates score touchdowns all night long.
Hot: Chiefs DE George Karlaftis III
The best player on Kansas City’s defense the last several years has been Chris Jones.
He had another 10.5 sacks this year, but that only tied for the team lead thanks to George Karlaftis stepping up in his 2nd season. Karlaftis also finished right behind Jones in pressures with 35.
For years, the Chiefs had a nice setup with edge rusher Frank Clark pairing as another pass-rushing option with Jones. Clark had many big sacks in the playoffs over the years for the Chiefs while Jones shockingly never had a sack until he got a pair in the 2022 AFC Championship Game against Cincinnati.
Clark left this season, so it was Karlaftis’ time to step up.
He has 4.0 sacks over the last 4 games, including 1.5 sacks in the wild card round against Miami, and another sack against Lamar Jackson in the AFC Championship Game. Karlaftis also recovered Jackson’s fumble on the strip-sack by teammate Charles Omenihu, who tore his ACL.
With Omenihu out, Karlaftis and Jones will have to get the job done in putting pressure on Purdy. Brock had strong numbers against the blitz this year. However, can put the ball in danger when he has rushers in his face.
Not Hot: Chiefs WRs Kadarius Toney/Mecole Hardman
You could pretty much say the Chiefs’ “gadget receivers” have been ice cold since Week 1.
Opening night is when we got a taste of things to come. That night, Kadarius Toney dropped an easy catch and turned it into a pick-6 for the Lions. Late in the game, Toney dropped a pass that would have set up the Chiefs for a game-winning field goal.
Toney made more mistakes later. This includes an offensive offsides penalty against Buffalo in Week 14 that negated Kelce’s lateral to him for a touchdown. A week later against the Patriots, Toney again turned a catch into a pick for Mahomes. He has not played since. He has also said on social media that he is not injured. Nonetheless, the Chiefs keep listing him on the injury report each week.
They would be wise to keep him out of this game too no matter how well he did on a punt return against the Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl.
The positives have just never been there this year with Toney and the mistakes are game killers.
Costly Mistakes
However, the Chiefs cannot seem to help themselves with this type of receiver.
In Toney’s absence, they brought back Mecole Hardman. Mecole tried to work with the Jets before they gave him back to Kansas City after he had 1 catch for 6 yards.
The Chiefs haven’t really gotten much out of that move either. Hardman fumbled a punt in Denver in a 24-9 loss. His most iconic play this season was fumbling through the end zone on a 1st down in Buffalo. This fumble threw away the Chiefs’ chance to go up 10 points in the 4th quarter.
Maybe that fumble was the last straw, as the Chiefs played Hardman on just 1 offensive snap against the Ravens. He played 27 snaps against Miami and 19 snaps in Buffalo this postseason.
The Chiefs like using these players for trick plays or for putting them in motion to identify the coverage. Still, there has to be better ways to do that. Use running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire in that role, if needed, or play veteran Richie James more. Kansas City cannot afford those costly mistakes you get from Toney and Hardman with none of the upside.
Keep them on the sideline all night long.
Calculators
