Our top-rated online sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Super Bowl LVIII between the 49ers and Chiefs.
For your best bets, it is crucial to know the players on the field. We should evaluate their skill set and talent level, their strengths, and their weaknesses. In doing so, we create a sense of their ability to win the game for their team.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Kansas City’s Skill Players
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes
Sunday’s game is a matter of “been there, done that” for future Hall-of-Famer Patrick Mahomes, who has won two Super Bowls, going undefeated in Super Bowls against quarterbacks not named Tom Brady.
Mahomes is most famously known for his highlight reel plays, which he makes when plays break down and he is forced to make things happen on the run.
Perhaps the most insane play in his Super Bowl history came in his loss to Tampa Bay. He threw a bullet while diving to the ground that reached his pass-catcher perfectly. Only the ball was sadly dropped.
People say that quarterbacks who rely on broken-down plays to thrive aren’t NFL-worthy. This may be true to an extent. However, Mahomes is also excellent as a passer in general. He is not simply a maker of incredible plays.
It is true that his numbers have plummeted this season – a look at his season stats undeniably shows drops in yardage, touchdowns, and passer rating. This year, Mahomes has also dealt with the most dropped passes.
His number-one ranking in true completion percentage reflects his continued greatness at quarterback. He just cannot also play wide receiver.
Kansas City’s Pass-Catchers
With the departure of Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs’ wide receiving group lacked a playmaker whom Mahomes could rely on along with tight end Travis Kelce.
Mahomes has complained about his receivers running wrong routes and not knowing where to go when a play breaks down.
Wide receivers have been responsible for multiple Chiefs losses, with Kadarius Toney in Week 1 immediately coming to mind as an example.
However, the Chiefs’ wide receivers are not all bad.
They have improved overall. Most importantly, one wide receiver has distinguished himself from the pack. This wide receiver is Rashee Rice. Rice is a favored weapon on screen passes but also flexes comfort in intermediate passing games.
Mahomes has come to depend on Rice. Whereas Kelce and Rice both have over 200 receiving yards in the postseason, no other Chief pass-catcher has more than 108.
Kansas City’s Running Back
The Chiefs want to rely on one between-the-tackles guy. That is Isiah Pacheco.
Pacheco runs with violence. He’ll crush opposing defenders, but he’s also more than just a strong man. His breakaway speed increases the likelihood that he’ll achieve a big gain. For all of his physical talent, he is still inconsistent game-to-game in terms of YPC.
San Francisco’s Skill Players
Quarterback Brock Purdy
A few weeks ago, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was in the MVP discussion.
While he is no longer in the discussion – his disastrous output against Baltimore ended that discussion –, his stat line is still worth noting.
In the regular season, he completed 69.4 percent of his passes for 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
But also worth noting is the extent to which the outlook for San Francisco’s offense and for its team overall declines when Deebo Samuel is absent.
The 49ers struggle to score nearly as much as usual when he doesn’t play.
Purdy, as much as he’s impressed, largely relies on benefiting from Kyle Shanahan’s offensive genius. Shanahan can scheme guys open, and his pass-catchers are dangerous weapons who make Purdy’s life easier. Purdy ranks number one in deep ball completion percentage largely because he has great weapons.
San Francisco’s Pass-Catchers
Three pass-catchers are worth noting: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and tight end George Kittle.
Samuel is a versatile player who can operate out of the backfield.
Aiyuk is a more traditional wide receiver, who has an elite true catch rate, which means that he is very reliable at catching catchable balls. His burst helps him gain a strong cushion, and, like Samuel, he is dangerous after the catch. Aiyuk ranks 18th in yards after catch and Samuel ranks ninth.
As for Kittle, he is the only tight end to exceed 1,000 yards receiving this season. He averages an impressive 15.7 yards per reception.
San Francisco’s Running Back
Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best running back in the game.
He leads running backs in yards and ranks fourth in rushing touchdowns. His strength will hurt defenders trying to tackle him, but he also has excellent finesse moves.
McCaffrey fits well within his head coach’s vision of positionless football because he operates effectively as a pass-catcher, allowing Kyle Shanahan to line up him outside or in the slot, which must confuse defenders.
Kansas City’s Defense and Special Teams
The Chiefs rank middle-of-the-road against the run but are elite against the pass. They specialize in stopping number-one wide receivers.
For example, they limited Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown in Week 1 to a rare 71-yard receiving output. With L’Jarius Sneed, they have a cornerback who can lock down any wide receiver, although Trent McDuffie’s coverage skills also deserve mention.
The Chiefs also excel at applying pressure, their high sack rate being largely a product of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s creativity.
As for Kansas City’s special teams, Harrison Butker is a reliable kicker. He is a perfect 7-for-7 in these playoffs.
San Francisco’s Defense and Special Teams
The 49ers’ surface-line stats suggest that their run defense is good.
However, you have to go beneath the surface with this team because their large amount of blowout wins have deflated their opponents’ rushing numbers.
Metrics indicate that San Francisco’s run defense is actually weak. Their performance in these playoffs confirms this.
Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards against them on six YPC. Detroit’s rush attack gashed the 49ers, reaching 182 yards on 6.3 YPC.
San Francisco’s pass defense is vulnerable. If sack-master Nick Bosa doesn’t reach the opposing quarterback, then it’s likely that the opposing quarterback will take advantage of the 49ers’ liabilities in the secondary, or the soft zone coverage with which San Francisco will try to protect its vulnerable cornerbacks.
As for the 49ers’ special teams, kicker Jake Moody is a heart attack waiting to happen for 49ers backers. He has missed a kick in three straight games.
Takeaways
While Kansas City’s declined pass attack might seem unable to take advantage of San Francisco’s vulnerable pass defense, we have to consider that the Chiefs’ offense has improved a lot over the course of the season, especially because Mahomes has developed more chemistry with his wide receivers.
Mahomes has achieved a passer rating of over 100 in three of his last four games, with the one exception coming in the insanely cold game against Miami.
Pacheco can prolong the misery of San Francisco’s run defense in these playoffs.
On the other side, the Chiefs’ average run defense deals with the 49ers’ elite running back, while San Francisco’s elite pass attack goes strength-on-strength against the Chiefs’ highly-ranked pass defense.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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