We’ve added a six-point teaser to follow along for Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
Take a look at which direction we’re teasing the side and total for the Big Game and let us know if you’re tailing it at one of our top-rated online sportsbooks.
- Chiefs +8
- Under 53.5
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Leg 1: Chiefs Spread
- From +2 to +8
The Kansas City Chiefs have only lost in the playoffs three times with Patrick Mahomes under center. Therefore, it’s likely the Chiefs stick around in this game. Even if Kansas City loses, it would likely be by one score.
It took a ridiculous comeback from the 49ers to beat the Lions in the NFC Conference Championship. The Niners were also outplayed by the Packers in the Divisional Playoffs. Now they’re expected to beat an experienced Chiefs team in the Super Bowl?
I don’t think so.
Poor Against the Run
The Chiefs and Niners have both been poor against the run defensively. While the Niners probably have the better defensive line and secondary, they’re also facing a much more daunting task: stopping Patrick Mahomes.
Kansas City wasn’t outplayed in any of their three playoff games. They weren’t even outplayed in a single quarter. The Chiefs made some mistakes with fumbles earlier in the playoffs. But once that got cleaned up, the Chiefs have looked terrific.
For the first time ever, in the Mahomes era, the Chiefs knocked off two teams on the road during their playoff run. The doubters thought the Chiefs’ dynasty was over after a subpar offensive regular season. However, the defense stepped up and is playing its best in the Mahomes era. Now that the defense is locked in, Mahomes and the offense have started to click.
That’s why they’re in the Super Bowl again.
First Rodeo for Purdy
- From Under 47.5 to 53.5
Meanwhile, this will be Brock Purdy’s first start in the Super Bowl. He’s a second-year player who had some really good moments this year. However, against the Lions, he struggled early and had to rally the Niners back into the game in the second half.
On paper and to the eye test, Jordan Love played better than Purdy in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. Therefore, it’s likely Mahomes outplays Purdy. Purdy might have a difficult time reading some of Kansas City’s blitzes and will likely be the player to make more mistakes out of the two quarterbacks.
Getting the Chiefs at +8 works.
Leg 2: Over/Under 53.5
In the second leg of the teaser, we’ll add six points to the total and back the Under. While I’m high on Mahomes and the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII, I just spoke highly of Kansas City’s defense too.
In reality, both defenses have been superb in defending the pass. They’ve both only struggled in the run game. But if both teams choose to run the ball and dictate the game on the ground, the clock will only tick faster with fewer incompletions and more running.
The 49ers’ goal is to get the ball in Christian McCaffrey’s hands. If the Niners want to win this game, they’re going to have to get the ball to their best player. That could be in the run game or the passing game. But even if it’s in the passing game, he’ll earn some quick dump-offs or designed throws that should be caught.
That’ll keep the clock moving.
Great Against the Pass
Meanwhile, as stated before, the 49ers are great against the pass but not so great against the run. In the NFC Conference Championship, the Lions rushed for more than six yards a carry against the 49ers.
San Francisco has a lot of notable names on their defensive roster. They’ve got some intriguing players. But against the run, they’re probably a little overhyped. Both teams also missed many tackles this season. Neither team was super disciplined in that regard.
The 49ers have forced more turnovers in the air. They’ve even gotten to Mahomes multiple times over the last four seasons. That would be fine if Mahomes gets caught for an interception or two. As long as the interception is in Kansas City territory.
That’s where the Chiefs have made mistakes so far in the playoffs. They’ve made mistakes around the goal line on their end. While that’s not ideal, it’s better than giving up the ball on the other side of the field.
Therefore, let’s pair up the Chiefs +8 and the Under 53.5 in a six-point teaser. Typically, backing the Underdog and the Under is the way to go with these teasers. So let’s take it!
NFL Pick: Six-Point Teaser (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.