The Kansas City Chiefs are appearing in their 6th-straight AFC Championship Game. They have never missed the game once with Patrick Mahomes as their quarterback. He just won his 1st road playoff game in Buffalo with another great performance as the offense looked as good as it has all season.
But the Chiefs are going to need an even stronger team performance to take down the top-seeded Ravens in Baltimore. The Chiefs are a 3.5-point road underdog in the NFL odds.
If you are considering taking the Chiefs for your NFL picks this week at our main sportsbooks, here are 3 keys for the Chiefs to beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, January 28, 2024 – 03:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
1. Survive the First 35 Minutes
If you haven’t noticed, the Ravens have been crushing teams this year, especially the good ones on the schedule.
Baltimore was plus-203 in scoring differential in the regular season, the only team above 200 points. If you swap out the Week 18 game where starters rested and replace it with the 34-10 divisional round win over Houston, then the Ravens are plus-234 when Lamar Jackson starts this year.
Including playoff games, the 2023 Ravens have outscored teams that made the playoffs this year by 138 points (7-3 record). That is the highest scoring differential against playoff teams by any team since the 1991 Redskins (plus-160).
Highest Total Scoring Differential vs. Playoff Teams Since 1990
- 1991 Redskins (plus-160) – Won Super Bowl
- 2023 Ravens (plus-138) – To be determined
- 2014 Patriots (plus-136) – Won Super Bowl
- 2007 Patriots (plus-135) – Lost Super Bowl
- 1996 Packers (plus-120) – Won Super Bowl
- 2002 Buccaneers (plus-115) – Won Super Bowl
- 1993 Cowboys (plus-114) – Won Super Bowl
- 2022 Eagles (plus-112) – Lost Super Bowl
- 2001 Rams (plus-102) – Lost Super Bowl
- 2009 Saints (plus-102) – Won Super Bowl
- 2016 Patriots (plus-102) – Won Super Bowl
All 10 of the previous teams at least reached the Super Bowl with 7 of them winning it. In comparison, the 2023 Chiefs are only plus-99 through all 19 games this season and plus-13 against playoff opponents (3-4 record).
The secret about blowouts in the NFL, especially in matchups between good teams, is that many are still close around halftime. That’s why we said the Chiefs need to survive the first 35 minutes, because a lot of these games get decided in that 10-minute window between the final 5:00 of the 2nd quarter and the first 5:00 of the 3rd quarter.
Ravens’ Blow Outs Blueprint
This is how the Ravens blew out the 49ers in Week 16.
That game was 13-12 before Jackson had a huge scramble that set up a field goal to make it a 16-12 lead at halftime. To start the 3rd quarter, the Ravens forced a 3-and-out, scored a quick touchdown on a short field, intercepted Brock Purdy again, and had a 9-yard touchdown drive. Just like that it went from 13-12 to 30-12 in a span of about 7 minutes. Game over.
The Ravens did the same thing to the Dolphins in Week 17 to clinch the No. 1 seed. Miami had just kicked a field goal to make it 14-13 with 3:10 left in the half. The Ravens scored a 75-yard touchdown to Zay Flowers, intercepted Tua Tagovailoa, then scored a 35-yard touchdown on a 4th-and-7 to Isaiah Likely. The Ravens started the 2nd half with a 78-yard kick return, setting up another fast touchdown drive. The game went from 14-13 to 35-13 in 4 minutes and 41 seconds. Game over.
Chiefs’ Blow Outs Blueprint
The Chiefs have experienced this once before in the playoffs with Patrick Mahomes.
It was their 31-9 loss in Super Bowl LV to the Buccaneers. They kicked a field goal to make it a 14-6 deficit with 1:01 left in the half. After a couple of cheap pass interference penalties, the Buccaneers were in the end zone again to make it 21-6. The Chiefs settled for another field goal to start the 3rd quarter, then Tampa was back in the end zone. Mahomes was intercepted 3 plays later, and at 28-9, you could write game over. It went from 14-6 to 28-9 in less than 9 minutes.
We know the Chiefs with Mahomes can come from behind with the best of them, and Baltimore has blown 7 multi-score leads since 2022. But this is not a team you want to get behind big to right now. It is vital for the Chiefs to survive the early portions of the game so that the 4th quarter is still very relevant and gives them a chance to win the game. They have way more experience in pulling out close wins —especially in the playoffs— than Baltimore does.
But the game has to get to that point first to matter. Avoid the avalanche and don’t let the deficit snowball to something that is out of reach.
2. Contain Baltimore’s Running Game
Playing the Bills last week could be a blessing or curse for the Chiefs.
The Ravens are going to study that tape and see some things they like with the way the Bills attacked the Chiefs’ run defense, including many designed plays with their mobile quarterback, Josh Allen.
But the non-designed scrambles can be the most lethal plays, and that is where Lamar Jackson shines. He rushed for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns against Houston last week, and many of his best runs were scrambles.
The Chiefs have faced Jackson 4 times before and are 3-1 against him. He has not been very successful as a passer, completing 56.2% of his passes with just 6.2 yards per attempt and a 78.9 passer rating. He averages more yards per rush (6.45) against the Chiefs than he does per pass. This is the best Kansas City defense he will have faced yet, and he hasn’t seen them at all since 2021.
But that is why containing the run is so important as you almost prefer if Jackson is throwing instead of the running game having a dominant day. Jackson had 16 runs for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns in the 2021 win against the Chiefs, so he was a problem that night for them. But so were the other backs.
Jackson’s Scrambles
When the Chiefs last beat Baltimore in 2020, Jackson had 9 runs for 83 yards, but he was only 15-of-28 for 97 yards as a passer. Just as importantly, his other backs had 12 carries for 75 yards. Not a terrible efficiency, but they weren’t able to lean on their ground attack while Mahomes was shredding the defense.
This year, Jackson led the Ravens with 821 rushing yards. They lost lead back J.K. Dobbins early, then they lost speed back who had a ridiculous success rate when Keaton Mitchell went down. Gus Edwards, Dalvin Cook, and Justice Hill can get the job done, but they are not as dominant or scary as the Ravens are when Jackson is having a big dual-threat game with running and passing.
The Ravens did not rush for more than 125 yards in 3-of-4 losses this year. The Chiefs just won in Buffalo despite allowing a season-high 182 rushing yards. But that wouldn’t have worked out if Allen was hitting big pass plays in addition to the rushing success. Buffalo never had a play gain more than 18 yards last week. Against the Texans, Baltimore’s longest play was a 23-yard scramble by Jackson.
So, if the Chiefs can contain the other backs and limit Jackson’s overall effectiveness with their improved pass coverage this year, it could come down to a game of limiting his scrambles from extending drives.
3. Limit Mistakes and Great Field Position for Ravens
The Baltimore defense led the NFL in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways this year. Mix in their strong special teams under coach John Harbaugh, and the offense enjoyed the best starting field position in the league.
That is why the mistake-prone Chiefs cannot feed the Ravens short fields with their barrage of mistakes.
Kansas City’s ball security has been fairly good this postseason. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t had multiple turnovers in a game since Mahomes had those back-to-back turnovers returned for touchdowns in a 7-second span against the Raiders on Christmas.
But the Chiefs still do incredibly stupid things like putting the ball in Mecole Hardman’s hands at the goal line against Buffalo. He fumbled both of his touches in that game, and that one went through the end zone and could have been fatal to Kansas City’s season. The Chiefs practically fumble every week, which is why we call it the Obligatory Fumble for the Chiefs. You know it’s coming, you just hope it doesn’t ruin the game.
But it has been that kind of season for the Chiefs with a league-leading number of dropped passes, a ton of penalties on the offensive tackles, and of course, an offensive offsides penalty on Kadarius Toney against Buffalo in Week 14. While Toney has barely played since then, the Chiefs continue playing Hardman and getting nothing positive out of it.
Chiefs’ Imperative
The Chiefs are going to have to really limit their mistakes in this one.
Mahomes has not thrown an interception in his last 5 playoff games. He hasn’t taken a sack in 4-of-5 playoff games since 2022 either. He could do his part to limit mistakes, but we’ll see about his linemen and receivers.
Remember, the Texans had a ton of pre-snap penalties (false starts) in Baltimore last week. The Chiefs are a veteran team and used to playing in big games, so they should be much more prepared than the Texans were for that atmosphere. But do not be surprised if a few drives are hijacked by holding penalties and false starts from Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor. They just can’t compound it by Mahomes forcing a pick on 3rd-and-15 and giving Jackson another short field.
But the scary thing is Baltimore just set a record by winning a game by 24 points against Houston despite recording no sacks or turnovers. C.J. Stroud played a clean game on that front, and it didn’t even matter as the Ravens shut down the run, contained his other receivers, and the Texans scored just 3 offensive points. Their only touchdown was a punt return.
The Chiefs are much better than the Texans and seem to be finding their championship mettle at the right time, but they will have to play a stellar game to get back to the Super Bowl. Baltimore lacks traditional weaknesses.
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