2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds and Picks

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Men compete during the 2023 Nathan's Famous Fourth of July International Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4, 2023 at Coney Island in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images/AFP

Update 7/4: Patrick Bertoletti chowed down on 58 franks to win this year’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest after Joey Chestnut sat the tournament out. Bertoletti was priced at 20-1, so a $100 wager returned $2,000.

2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Pick: Geoffrey Esper -200 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Geoffrey Esper -200
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This year’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will be unlike any in recent memory as it will be held without the legendary hotdog woofing machine, Joey Chestnut, who has been banned from the event due to signing with a rival company—a decision that has also sent shockwaves through the top sportsbooks closely following the competition.

2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

Thursday, July 04, 2024 – 11:00 AM to 1:00 PM ET at Coney Island, New York

Odds on Top Contestants

Geoffrey Esper-200
James Webb+220
Nick Wehry+400
Darron Breeden+800
Matt Stonie+1100
Patrick Bertoletti+2000
Gideon Oji+2500
Bartley Weaver IV+2500
Pablo Martinez+3500

Joey Jaws Jilted

If you’re reading this article then you undoubtedly know who Joey Chestnut is and his vast accomplishments in the world of competitive eating in general, and Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, specifically. He is a 16-time winner of this competition, including last year, and his best finish came in 2021 when he set a record of downing a staggering 76 wieners in 10 minutes at the annual July 4th event.

But this year he will not be competing after signing a deal with a rival company called Impossible Foods to promote its plant-based hot dog. Interestingly enough, Chestnut does not have a contract with Nathan’s nor the promoter of the event, Major League Eating.

In a three-part post on X, Chestnut wrote:

“I was gutted to learn from the media that after 19 years I’m banned from Nathan’s July 4th Hot Dog Eating Contest. I love competing in that event, I love celebrating America with my fans all over this great country on the 4th and I have been training to defend my title.

“To set the record straight, I do not have a contract with MLE or Nathans and they are looking to change the rules from past years as it relates to other partners I can work with. This is apparently the basis on which I’m being banned, and it doesn’t impact the July 4th event.

“Sadly, this is the decision Nathan’s and Major League Eating are making, and it will deprive the great fans of the holiday’s usual joy and entertainment. To my fans, I love you and appreciate you. Rest assured that you’ll see me eat again soon!! STAY HUNGRY!”

Major League Eating released a statement as well, saying, “Joey Chestnut is an American hero. We would love nothing more than to have him at the Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest, which he has dominated for years. We hope that he returns when he is not representing a rival brand.”

It appears that this is an impasse that would best be bridged to the benefit of both parties and hopefully, between now and next year’s contest, the parties will find a way to compromise and get Joey Jaws back into the game that he’s dominated for so long.

The Rules & Payouts

The rules are simple but the contest will turn your stomach:

  • Whoever eats the most hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes will be declared the wiener, check that, the winner.
  • Contestants are allowed to put mustard, ketchup, or whatever other condiment on their hot dogs but most do not.
  • Drinks are allowed and water is the beverage of choice in this contest.
  • Should a contestant vomit during the event, they are disqualified.
  • In the event of a tie, the contestants will be instructed to eat five hot dogs as quickly as possible but must keep the hot dogs and buns down.

The total prize money for the event is $40,000 and sponsored by Pepto-Bismol. The payouts to the top five finishers are as follows:

  • First place: $10,000 and the Mustard Yellow Belt
  • Second place: $5,000
  • Third place: $2,500
  • Fourth place: $1,500
  • Fifth place: $1,000

A Shot at the Mustard Yellow Belt

I hate to be the consummate chalk-eater but there is no other choice than Geoffrey Esper in this competition. Esper understands that this might be his one and only shot at winning the most prestigious competitive eating competition on the planet. Chestnut may be back next year if he and Nathan’s can reach an amicable resolution so this is Esper’s opportunity to finally seize the brass ring…or the Mustard Yellow Belt in this case.

We should point out that Esper is no newcomer to the sport as he has a highly-respected legacy in the world of competitive eating including downing 83 slices of pizza in 10 minutes in 2018 while also setting a record the following year by mowing down 281 Hooters’ chicken wings. Just last year he captured his third consecutive strawberry shortcake eating record by eating 21 pounds of the confection in just eight minutes.

Perhaps the only other contestant of note is Matt Stonie (+1100) who has the distinction of being the only man on the panel to have defeated Joey Chestnut at this event. It occurred in 2015 when Stonie dethroned the champ, albeit temporarily, by devouring 62 hot dogs which was two more than Chestnut.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.