MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-118) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Will the stars align for the American League on Tuesday night, or will they shine brightest for the National League in the 94th All-Star Game?
As we gear up for the Midsummer Classic, delve into MLB odds, betting trends, and expert insights from top sportsbooks to get the full picture of this highly anticipated showdown.
Visit our MLB World Series betting page for comprehensive coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown. Stay tuned and don’t miss a moment of the action!
National League vs. American League
Tuesday, July 16, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Globe Life Field
Attending the 1968 All-Star Game with my dad remains one of my favorite memories. I’d already been to more than 100 MLB games by then, but this was different as future Hall of Famers covered the plastic grass inside Houston’s Astrodome.
It was also the first time for me to see many of the American League stars that made up the roster for that contest, and Tuesday night in Arlington will be the first time for nearly three dozen players to take part in the action.
The Odds
Top sportsbooks opened the proceedings with the American League chalked around -115. That moneyline is holding at several shops, while others have seen enough action on the AL stars to bump the number up closer to -120.
A run-line play on the AL is fetching around a +170 to +180 return while taking an extra 1½ runs and the NL sends the price to -200 and higher. Most shops started with 7 runs for the total, but that has since shifted up to 7½ with a little extra tax for those playing the ‘under.’
The History
Tuesday marks the 94th time the league has fielded a clash between the leagues, with the event starting in 1933 and never expected to be an annual occurrence at that time.
With the exception of when former commissioner Bud Selig tried to make the game “mean something” by awarding the winning league home field advantage for the World Series, the game remains an exhibition that has lost some of its appeal due to the expansion of interleague play.
The American League holds a slight 47-44 edge, with two more matchups ending in ties (1961 Game 1 and 2002). While the overall record is remarkably close, the game has been incredibly streaky with the NL winning 11 straight from 1972-82 and the AL winning 9 in a row from 2013-22 (no game in 2020).
The AL’s 9-game win streak came to an end last year in Seattle where Rockies catcher Elias Diaz helped the NL to a 3-2 victory. It was another 3-2 final the year before that when Giancarlo Stanton and the AL won by that score at Dodger Stadium.
This is the second ASG in Arlington, with the first taking place in 1995 at the previous Texas ballpark. The final score in that one? It was also a 3-2 game, with all 5 runs scoring as a result of 4 home runs.
The Pitchers
After not being called up to make his MLB debut until mid-May, Paul Skenes was tabbed to start for the NL. The Pittsburgh rookie is coming off a 7-IP, no-hit, 11-K last Thursday in Milwaukee, picking up the win to move to 6-0 after his first 11 big league starts.
Who knows? This could be one of the few games for a long time to come that Skenes is an underdog on the MLB odds. Philadelphia’s Jeff Hoffman is a likely pick for the 7th or 8th inning, with St. Louis closer Ryan Helsley the best pick to get the 9th.
Corbin Burnes gets the starting nod for the AL following a first half in which he made 15 quality starts among his 19 assignments. The Baltimore ace took the loss last Wednesday against the Cubs (6 IP, 3 ER) to stand 9-4 with a 2.43 ERA entering Tuesday.
Expect to see New York’s Clay Holmes (21 saves) to get the 8th-inning call for the AL while Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase (29 saves) works the 9th.
The Hitters
Shohei Ohtani will DH and bat second for the NL, and his limited history against Burnes includes a single in 3 career at bats. Bryce Harper will bat cleanup and has struggled against Burnes in the past (1-10, no homers).
Nobody in the AL starting lineup has faced Skenes, but the rookie will still have his hands full just to get through the 1st inning. Steven Kwan, Gunnar Henderson, and Juan Soto are the first three hitters, followed by Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, and Jose Ramirez.
The Umpires
Heading up the 6-man umpire crew will be James Hoye. Now in his 22nd season working at the major league level, Hoye will be working his second All-Star Game after being on the LF line in the 2015 contest at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
A native of Ohio, Hoye has called balls and strikes 18 times this season, resulting in a 10-7-1 O/U/P record on the totals board. He was 16-17-1 O/U/P in 2023, one of the ‘over’ winners coming in Game 3 of the ALCS at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
The rest of the umpire crew consists of Bruce Dreckman (1B), John Tumpane (2B), Nic Lentz (3B), Ben May (LF), and Nestor Ceja (RF). It is the first All-Star Games for Tumpane, Lentz, May, and Ceja.
The Pick
There’s really only one MLB pick to make here, one that is just too powerful a trend to ignore. Of the last 17 All-Star Games, 14 failed to reach the total, with 2 of the 3 that did being a push. The roof will be closed, but it will still be ‘under’ the stars in Arlington.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-118) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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