Top NCAAB Pick: Northwestern +14.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
March Madness carries on in the NCAAB Basketball Tournament, as we have reached the second day of the Second Round on Sunday. We are back with our three best bets on the card that we feel hold betting value at the current NCAAB odds.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, regardless of whether the teams involved hail from major, mid-major or minor conferences. We have three underdog bets that you can cash at top-rated sportsbooks on Sunday, with one matchup each from the Midwest, West and East Regions.
Utah State Aggies vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 02:40 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
We start in the Midwest Region, where top-seeded Purdue takes on 8th-seeded Utah State. While the top seeding for the Boilermakers is well deserved, we think they will have their hands full here with the stiff Aggies perimeter defense, so we are taking the double-digit points.
Stalemate Beyond the Arc?
Purdue reached this second round by pulling away to a 78-50 win over a slightly tired Grambling team that played an overtime game in the First Four. The Boilermakers are ranked third overall on KenPom while ranking fourth in the land in offensive efficiency and 19th in defensive efficiency.
However, we do not expect the Boilers to have their usual success beyond the arc in this contest. Yes, Purdue is second in the country in 3-point shooting at a blistering 40,7%, but that gets offset here by Utah State ranking third in 3-point defense allowing a scant 29.1% success rate. Furthermore, the Boilermakers do not apply much pressure defensively ranking 340th in turnover percentage forced.
Can Do Damage Inside
The Aggies had an easier time than we expected with a handy 88-72 win over TCU in the first round. Utah State played to their strengths in that game with their 3-point defense allowing the Horned Frogs to go 7-for-22 beyond the arc and their offense making a scorching 25-of-43 (61.0%) of their 2-point shots.
Well, we expect Utah State to hang close in this game in that same manner. We have already discussed how the Aggies have one of the few perimeter defenses in the country that can contain Purdue’s excellent 3-point shooters. And USU is also 10th in the country in 2-point shooting at 57.3%. Given the lack of turnovers Purdue forces, the Aggies should be able to find those good inside looks.
The Pick
So, while we think national Player of the Year candidate Zach Edey should lead Purdue to victory on the court, we feel Utah State is well-equipped stylistically to cover this big number.
Predicted Score: Purdue 79 – Utah State 74
NCAAB Pick: Utah State +10.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Clemson Tigers vs. Baylor Bears
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 06:10 PM ET at FedExForum
Next, we move to the West Region, where we think that third-seeded Baylor could be on upset alert taking on sixth-seeded Clemson.
Vulnerable Inside
Baylor blew out Colgate 92-67 in the first round. However, the fact that they allowed the Raiders to make 53.8% of their 2-point shots (21-for-39) could be a foreboding omen for this game. You see, Baylor has gotten to this point with offense, as the Bears are fifth in the nation on offensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and fourth in three-point shooting at 39.9%.
Still, the defense has oftentimes become an afterthought, ranking 225th in eFG% allowed. Of particular concern here is the Bears’ interior defense ranking 246th in 2-point percentage allowed at 51.9%, a figure even a worse-shooting Colgate team exceeded rather easily.
Twin Towers
Clemson closed as an underdog to 11th-seeded New Mexico in the first round despite being the better seed, but promptly handled business rather easily 77-56. The Tigers rank a respectable 25th overall on Kenpom with good balance, ranking 25th in offensive efficiency and 47th in defensive efficiency.
However, it is their inside scoring against the weak Baylor 2-point defense that we feel will allow the Tigers to take this game right down to the wire. You see, Clemson has two 6’10” players in their regular rotation, PJ Hall and Chauncey Wiggins, helping lead to a 38th ranking in 2-point offense at 54.3% (national average 50.3%).
The Pick
The only thing stopping us from picking Clemson outright is their 141st ranking in 3-point defense, which could result in many 3-for-2 trips for Baylor. Still, an upset would not be shocking, so take the points with the Tigers.
Predicted Score: Baylor 75 – Clemson 74
NCAAB Pick: Clemson +4.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Connecticut Huskies
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 07:45 PM ET at Barclays Center
We wrap things up in the East Region. Overall top-seeded Connecticut toyed with Stetson on Friday. Still, we think the 9-seeds from Northwestern will give them a much closer game on Sunday.
Facing Better
The amazing aspect of the Huskies’ 91-52 win over the Hatters on Friday was that the game didn’t occur at a fast pace, with 69 possessions. However, Stetson did not have their usual 3-point success. They went an abysmal 3-for-20 beyond the arc. Meanwhile, UConn did whatever it wanted offensively against one of the worst defenses in the country.
Connecticut prefers to play slow, ranking 324th in the nation in Tempo Rating and 293rd in Average Possession Length. That approach has served the Huskies well. They lead the country in offensive efficiency and rank 11th in defensive efficiency. However, we think the expected slower pace of this contest will result in a much closer game against a much better team than Stetson in Northwestern.
Another Slow Pace
The Wildcats beat eighth-seeded FAU 77-65 in overtime on Friday, outscoring the Owls 19-7 over the extra session. Northwestern plays even slower than Connecticut, ranking 340th in Tempo Rating and 328th in Average Possession Length. Unlike Stetson, however, the Wildcats figure to make the most of their limited possessions.
The Wildcats rank 33rd in offensive efficiency. This is mainly due to being one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. They’re also not turning the ball over. The Cats are seventh in the nation beyond the arc at 39.3% and an identical seventh in turnover percentage. Meanwhile, Connecticut surprisingly allows turnovers defensively, ranking 229th in turnover percentage.
The Pick
With Northwestern competent defensively at 55th in efficiency, this time we look for a slow-paced game to result in the Wildcats staying inside this large spread.
Predicted Score: Connecticut 74 – Northwestern 66
NCAAB Pick: Northwestern +14.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
