Top NCAAB Pick: Washington State +1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
March Madness has begun, with the First Round of the 2024 NCAA Basketball Tournament taking place on Thursday and Friday. And today we are here with our three best bets for the Thursday card that we feel hold betting value at the current NCAAB odds.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, regardless of whether the teams involved hail from major, mid-major or minor conferences. Based on the top-rated sportsbooks, all three of our Thursday best bets are betting line underdogs as of this writing, with one play from the West Region and two East Region matchups.
Get in on the March Madness action! Enter BMR Forum’s bracket contest for a shot at winning up to $1,000 in BTC. The top 10 participants will score prizes.
Hurry, the deadline for picks is March 21, 2024 at 12:15 PM ET. Download BMR’s exclusive bracket now!
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Dayton Flyers
Thursday, March 21, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at Delta Center
We begin in the West Region, where 10th-seeded Nevada is currently a small favorite despite being the lesser seed against 7th-seeded Dayton. While that is not unusual, we disagree with it in this case and are thus taking the small spot with the underdog Flyers.
Better Shooting Team
The Flyers were the class of the Atlantic 10 this season while finishing 24-6 overall before getting upset by Duquesne in their conference tournament. Still, that does not take away from the fact that they remain ranked 32nd overall on Kenpom, a few spots higher than 36th-ranked Nevada.
Dayton is an elite offensive team ranking 18th in the country in offensive efficiency and ninth in eFG%. Their strength is 3-point shooting, where they rank fifth nationally at an amazing 40.2%, but they are also goon inside the arc ranking 49th in 2-point shooting at 53.7%. Furthermore, the Flyers are also good defensively, ranking 87th in efficiency and 51st in eFG% allowed.
Not Many Second Chances
The Wolf Pack finished 26-6 overall and 13-5 in the conference, but they too were one-and-done in the Mountain West Tournament losing to Colorado State. Nevada actually profiles nicely offensively as well, but while the Wolf Pack are good on that end of the court, they still trail Dayton in the key areas.
That is because Nevada ranks 40th in offensive efficiency, 56th in eFG%, 34th in 3-point shooting and 88th in 2-point shooting. Again, that would be good enough to beat a lot of teams, but the Flyers rank higher in all those areas. Moreover, the Wolf Pack do not figure to close that gap with second chances, as they only rank 234th in offensive rebounding percentage.
The Pick
When you add that Nevada also ranks a slightly worse 62nd in eFG% allowed defensively, we strongly disagree with the Wolf Pack being favored here. Bet on Dayton to pull the mini-upset.
Predicted Score: Dayton 74 – Nevada 69
NCAAB Pick: Dayton +1.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Thursday, March 21, 2024 – 07:35 PM ET at CHI Health Center Omaha
Next, we move to the East Region, where second-seeded Iowa State is a prohibitive favorite over the 15-seeds from South Dakota State. While that is understandable, we do think the Jackrabbits are a good enough shooting team to stay inside this large spread.
Top 20 in eFG%
The Jackrabbits were the Summit League Champions this season. They finished 19-12 overall but atop the conference at 12-4, then followed up by winning their conference tournament. And South Dakota State has the offense to hang with most teams in the country.
It is not very often that a huge underdog like this is ranked in the top 20 nationally in eFG%, yet here we are with South Dakota State ranking 19th. And the Jackrabbits shoot the ball well from all points of the floor, hitting 55.9% of 2-point shots (18th) and 36.2% of their 3-pointers (50th).
Poor Foul Shooting
Now we totally understand that the Cyclones are national title contenders. They are ranked fifth overall on Kenpom after finishing 24-7 during the season and then winning the Big 12 Tournament by throttling top-seeded Houston 69-41. And the Cyclones lead the country in defensive efficiency.
With that being said, we still do not expect Iowa State to totally shut down the potent South Dakota State offense. And the Cyclones are an average 109th in eFG% offensively at 51.9% (national average 50.5%), which could be their downfall deeper in this tournament. They are also not good at extending leads at the foul line, ranking 280th in free throw shooting at 69.7%.
The Pick
So, while Iowa State should outclass South Dakota State on the scoreboard, we think that the big offensive edge for the Jackrabbits will allow them to cover this huge spread.
Predicted Score: Iowa State 75 – South Dakota State 65
NCAAB Pick: South Dakota State +16.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Drake Bulldogs vs. Washington State Cougars
Thursday, March 21, 2024 – 10:05 PM ET at CHI Health Center Omaha
We stay in the East for our final Thursday play, where the winner of this game faces the winner of South Dakota State/Iowa State. The 7-seeds from Washington State are small underdogs after opening the favorite over 10th-seeded Drake. We disagree with that move and are betting the Cougars as small dogs.
Better Defense
The Cougars had a resurgent season this year going 23-8 and 14-6 in the Pac 12 before losing to Colorado in the conference tournament semifinals. Washington State even swept their season series with the regular season Pac 12 Champions Arizona, helping them to their current Kenpom 42nd ranking.
Wazzou is decent offensively ranking 64th in efficiency and 95th in eFG%, but they are clearly the better defensive team in this matchup. They rank 27th nationally in defensive efficiency and 35th in eFG% allowed while being equally good defending 2-pointers (46.9%) and 3-pointers (32.0%).
Furthermore, while the Pac-12 is the lowest-ranked power conference on Kenpom this season at sixth overall, that is still better than the 10th-ranked Missouri Valley Conference.
Drastic Rebounding Splits
Drake finished 25-6 this season and second in the Valley at 16-4 before upsetting regular season champion Indiana State in the MVC Championship Game. The fact that Indiana State did not make this NCAA Tournament field should be an indication of how lowly the Missouri Valley is regarded, which is yet another reason why we question Drake now being favored in this contest,
Also, the Bulldogs have one of the most drastic rebounding splits you will ever see. They lead the entire nation in defensive rebounding percentage while ranking 315th in offensive rebounding percentage! Given the quality of the defense they are facing Thursday night, we feel the lack of second chances via offensive rebounds is the most relevant of those rebounding splits for this game.
The Pick
Finally, Drake is the lower-ranked Kenpom team at 51st while hailing from the decidedly weaker conference. All of which has us betting on Washington State as a small underdog.
Predicted Score: Wahington State 70 – Drake 65
NCAAB Pick: Washington State +1.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
