2023 RBC Heritage Odds Analysis and Betting Preview: Can Tom Kim Win on Heritage Debut?

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Tom Kim of South Korea plays his tee shot on the fourth hole in the 2023 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club on April 07, 2023. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images).

Golf Pick: Tom Kim To Win Outright (+4000) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Picks Summary:

  • Tom Kim To Win Outright (+4000)
  • Tom Kim To Finish Top 10 (+450)

Yes, I do think Tom Kim can win on his debut at the Heritage Classic this week. The South Korean phenomenon has been simmering away under the radar in recent weeks at tracks where power was a key ingredient. This week the twenty-year-old arrives at a course perfectly suited to his strengths.

Those attributes were exampled in the fall of 2022 when he won the Wyndham Championship and Shriners Open. Those two events offer many strong correlations between players who do well on all three tracks. Webb Simpson is a champion in all three courses and the record score holder here.

Patrick Cantlay has a strong plethora of form here and at the Shriners Open. Davis Love was a three-time Wyndham champion and a record six times winner here at the Heritage. There are many more strong examples of a watertight correlation between events, particularly the Wyndham Championship but I will rest my case there for now.

Kim’s Masters Debut

Let’s look at Tom Kim’s Masters debut last week where he was an impressive 16th when the Augusta National was playing at its longest. That suggests our man is in strong form and it’s not unusual for debutants to play well at Hilton Head, in fact, Satoshi Kodaira won in 2018.

That’s a strong case for Tom Kim’s chances which means a high probability of a top 10 finish this week on debut and equally implies there is value in his price of (+500) at Bovada.

The Heritage Classic runs from April 13 to 16 and retains its annual spot in the calendar, the week after the Masters Tournament. This year, the event has a newly elevated status on the PGA Tour bringing all the best players in the world to Hilton Head Island, Harbour Town Golf Links in South Carolina.

Golf Pick: Tom Kim To Win Outright (+4000) at Bovada

Golf Pick: Tom Kim To Finish Top 10 (+450) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Course Notes

  • Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head Island
  • 7191-yard, par 71 track
  • A typical Pete Dye design has often been avoided by the power players in the modern game.
  • Upturned Bermuda Poa-seeded small greens.
  • Tight tree-lined fairways, peculiarly affected by swirling coastal winds above the trees.

Weather Forecast

Rain and thunderstorms forecast for Friday at Hilton Head could mean play for the opening two rounds gets pushed back over the weekend. Temperatures are warm throughout and the wind looks manageable.

Odds Analysis and Betting Preview

Scottie Scheffler (+850)

Making the Heritage Classic a PGA Tour elevated event effectively forces Scottie Scheffler to debut this week. Opposable!

Jon Rahm (+900)

The Spaniard arrives here on a crest of a wave after last week's Masters triumph. Has only played here once like many of the top guys and looks opposable.

Rory McIlroy (+1100)

The Northern Irishman has only played once here. Often bounces back to form after a poor week and last week's Masters missed cut was a pitiful effort from the PGA Tour spokesperson. Needs to make golf his number one and readily opposable.

Patrick Cantlay (+1400)

Cantlay has a strong plethora of form here at the Heritage Classic. If there are no effects of his Masters final-round capitulation, Cantlay looks like one of the strongest picks at the top of the market.

Jordan Spieth (+2000)

Similar sentiments apply to Jordan Spieth. If there are no ill effects from last week's strong finishing effort at the Masters, the reigning champion could put up a stout defense.

Collin Morikawa (+1800)

Morikawa gallantly chased home Stewart Cink in 2021. He has solid each-way credentials this week.

Shane Lowry (+4000)

Always a Heritage entrant and with three top 10s here, the Northern Irishman looks well suited and a champion of the future here.

Corey Conners (+5000)

The recent Texas Open winner has a strong look at this week's Heritage Classic if you can forgive last week's abject effort at the Masters, following his win. Forgiveness looks like a must for the Canadian this week.

Webb Simpson (+8000)

Record score holder here in South Carolina. Has been hinting he is close to his best form recently, particularly when finishing in the top 10 at the Valspar Championship.

J.T. Poston (+10000)

J.T. Poston provides further tangible proof of the Wyndham link mentioned. In superb form all season, a solid effort last week at the Masters. Has a strong look in all markets this week.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.