NFL Pick: Which Team Will Draft Hendon Hooker? Detroit Lions (+1000) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The 2023 NFL draft is going to look much different from last year’s class when only one quarterback (Kenny Pickett) was selected in the first 70 picks. It is all but guaranteed that four quarterbacks will go in the first round this year, including C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis.
Some even believe those could be the first four names called should Arizona trade out of the No. 3 spot, but the name that has intrigued many as a potential fifth first-round quarterback is Tennessee’s Hendon Hooker.
We look at the NFL odds from the best sportsbooks to see which team is likely to draft Hooker in the first or second round of the draft.
Is Hendon Hooker a First-Round Pick?
Our first step in predicting where Hooker will land is figuring out if he is likely to be drafted late in the first round where many playoff teams pick, or if he will last until the early second round when the struggling teams get another selection.
Hooker is a polarizing prospect out of Tennessee because the numbers are certainly there: 66.9% completions, 9.5 yards per pass attempt, 80 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and he is 6’4” with solid athleticism.
However, Hooker is also an older prospect at 25 years old, and he is coming off a torn ACL suffered in his final college game. Also, there is some data that is interesting and perhaps alarming from Sports Info Solutions that suggests Hooker is far more of a project than the other quarterbacks in this class.
Here is the percentage of dropbacks last season where the quarterback took 3-plus steps in a traditional dropback instead of just getting the snap in the shotgun and almost immediately throwing:
- C.J. Stroud (57.8%)
- Anthony Richardson (57.8%)
- Bryce Young (56.5%)
- Will Levis (46.7%)
- Hendon Hooker (14.1%)
Hooker’s Low Figure
The NFL average is reportedly 58%, so Hooker sticks out like a sore thumb here as someone who may be running a gimmicky offense. Pro Football Focus has charted Hooker with making just 16 throws beyond his first read last season, an absurdly low figure.
With Hooker almost certainly not ready to play as a 25-year-old rookie, no team may want to spend a first-round pick on him, allowing him to drop to the second round.
Teams Most Likely to Be in the Running for Hendon Hooker
We look at the six teams most likely to be in the running for Hooker’s services.
Minnesota Vikings (+800)
Believe it or not, the Minnesota Vikings with the No. 23 pick have become the odds-on favorite to land Hooker. Kirk Cousins has been a king at making guaranteed money from the Vikings, but his contract is set up to where he can test the free agent market in 2024.
While the Vikings made the playoffs last year, they were the first team in NFL history to win more than 11 games while being outscored on the season. They also lost their first playoff game at home, and Cousins did not have fantastic numbers compared to his usual standard.
Cousins is one of the last of a dying breed of pocket passers, so Hooker could certainly learn for a year and provide a different skillset should he take over in 2024. But this would be a move purely for the long-term future, which may not involve Cousins at all in Minnesota, so it makes sense why people are slotting Hooker into the No. 23 pick.
Tennessee Titans (+1000)
Hooker would be a big reach with the No. 11 pick, but he should not fall past the No. 41 pick the Titans have in the second round. A prospect in their backyard should have a decent feel for what he can do, and like the Cousins era in Minnesota, the Ryan Tannehill era in Tennessee could have an upcoming expiration date.
Imagine Hooker getting paired in the backfield with Derrick Henry, though King Henry would be 30 years old with a lot of treads on the tires in 2024. However, if Mike Vrabel is going to keep his job beyond this year after last season’s collapse, they may need to do something desperate in Tennessee.
Detroit Lions (+1000)
The Lions hold the No. 6, No. 18, and No. 48 picks in this draft, so they are going to have some cracks at Hooker for sure. He is not good enough to use the No. 6 pick on, but that No. 18 pick is a possibility if the team is not sold on Jared Goff for the long-term answer. Goff had some incredible numbers at home last year, but he struggled in the road games, which were mostly played outdoors.
If Hooker was somehow still there at the No. 48 pick, the Lions would definitely be poised to take a chance on him as a developmental project. But it would probably have to be that No. 18 pick in the first round if they are going to get him for sure.
Seattle Seahawks (+1400)
Similar to the Lions, the Seahawks have the No. 5, No. 20, and No. 37 picks to consider taking Hooker. The team did bring Geno Smith back after his breakout year, but they did not sign the kind of contract that makes him the long-term answer at the position.
Hooker would definitely be a more mobile option, but it will take years for him to get up to Smith’s level of accuracy with the ball as a passer. Pete Carroll is 72 years old this season and wants to win now, so a project at quarterback may not be in his plans.
Indianapolis Colts (+1400)
The Colts are on the board here, but it would be a shocker to not see them take a quarterback with the No. 4 pick. It would be a shock if they took Hooker that high too, but in the scenario that C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young go in the top two, then someone trades up to No. 3 for Anthony Richardson, then the Colts may not deem Will Levis to be their guy at No. 4.
That could cause a trade down to where they can get Hooker at a more reasonable spot, or they can roll the dice and wait to see if he will be there at No. 35 in the second round.
However, the Colts do not feel like a realistic option unless they love Hooker a lot more than we suspect they love Richardson and Levis.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1400)
With the 19th pick in the draft, Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers could consider a quarterback after Tom Brady retired. They have Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask right now, but neither feels like a legitimate long-term solution.
Hooker’s experience of playing in the shotgun and quickly releasing the ball would fit in well with the offense the Buccaneers tried running last year with no running game to speak of. But with a new direction and offensive coordinator, they will likely want to build something more balanced.
Still, it is hard to blame them if they did go quarterback in this spot. Teams should start taking the approach of drafting more quarterbacks until they find the right one.
Conclusion: The Best Pick for Hooker
At this time of year, no one really knows anything about these prospects that are not going at the very top of the draft. The Vikings were not even among the top six teams in odds to take Hooker until NFL draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah mocked them to take Hooker at No. 23. Now the Vikings are favored to do it.
But the Lions still feel like the right situation for a team with the draft capital to take Hooker, the patience to sit him for a season or two, and the lack of long-term trust in Jared Goff. Despite the praises of the Lions last year, they still missed the playoffs. They are favored to win the NFC North this year, but if that does not happen, then it will make the leash even shorter on Goff.
Let’s go with the Lions to take Hooker for your NFL picks, and it could either be at No. 18, a trade down into the 20s, or in the high portion of the second round.
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NFL Pick: Which Team Will Draft Hendon Hooker? Detroit Lions (+1000) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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