NFL Prop Pick: First Linebacker Selected – Drew Sanders (+110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The 2023 NFL draft is becoming a masterclass in disagreement on the best players and best fits for them. In this regard, linebacker is no different from quarterback, tight end, defensive line, offensive line, and wide receiver in this class.
At BetOnline, you can find a tie in the leading NFL odds for the first linebacker drafted in this class:
- Jack Campbell, Iowa (+110)
- Drew Sanders, Arkansas (+110)
- Trenton Simpson, Clemson (+375)
We make our best bet for this market below.
What Do the Mock Drafts Say?
Linebackers are not as undervalued in the draft as running backs these days, but you could say there has been a devaluing of the position, especially for off-the-ball linebackers. In the 2022 draft, Quay Walker was the first linebacker drafted by Green Bay with the No. 22 pick. However, you would have to go back to 1973 to find the last NFL draft where no linebacker was selected in the first round.
It could happen again this year as, one week away from the draft night, the latest updates to mock drafts from respected sources like NFL.com, ESPN, and Yahoo all fail to include a single linebacker in the first round.
This draft’s first round seems to be dominated by quarterbacks, offensive linemen, edge rushers who will fit more under the defensive end category, and other defensive talents like Jalen Carter or the defensive backs. There are even a couple of tight ends and a running back (Bijan Robinson) expected to go before any linebacker.
So, with the chances of a first linebacker not going until the second round, all 32 teams could get a crack at deciding which of these top prospects they want.
This is not to say the linebacker position is being overlooked. One of the most impactful draft picks on defense in the last few years was Micah Parsons by the Cowboys in 2021, but that is because of his immense pass-rushing ability. Sacks and pressures are what get the big bucks for linebackers in today’s NFL, and the 2023 draft class does not have those types of prospects as far as we can tell.
Trenton Simpson (+375): The Dark Horse
Clemson’s linebacker Trenton Simpson is ranked as the No. 3 linebacker prospect in this class. We post his odds (+375) as a relative measure of where this race stands as a two-man competition.
But Simpson is a great athlete and will likely go in the second round to a team looking for a weakside linebacker to accumulate tackles. In fact, if you wanted to throw a few bucks on a dark horse pick because of his athleticism advantage, you might have a shot with Simpson in this underwhelming linebacker class.
Drew Sanders (+110): The Value?
Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders started his career at Alabama where he played in 15 games in 2020-21. He transferred to Arkansas for the 2022 season and had by far his best season with 13.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, 103 total tackles, and his only college interception.
His season qualified him as a finalist for the Dick Butkus Award, which goes to the nation’s top linebacker. Sanders has good size and athleticism, and he can defend the pass as well as rush the passer, but he mostly played inside in his one season as a full-time starter.
There are plenty of linebacker-needy teams who would likely love to scoop him up at the top of that second round, including Houston (No. 33), Indianapolis (No. 35), Las Vegas (No. 38), and New Orleans (No. 40). It seems unlikely Sanders will last much longer beyond that stretch of the draft.
Jack Campbell (+110): The Award Winner
Iowa linebacker Jack Campbell is a four-year player who really shined over his last two seasons when he made over 125 tackles in both seasons. He was the Dick Butkus Award winner for the 2022 college season with 125 tackles, 2 interceptions, and a forced fumble.
Campbell checks the boxes of the physical, smart player who can command a defense and has all the experience you could want. But there may be a low ceiling here, and he is not likely someone that will produce a lot of splash plays at the next level.
Most sites agree with Campbell being a second-round pick, so he could attract a lot of the same suitors that Sanders will.
Conclusion: The Pick
Again, no one is going to forget about Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher when sizing up this linebacker class, but it is indeed a two-horse race between Sanders and Campbell. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, only 11.9% of mocks have Campbell going in the first round compared to 26.8%. Campbell’s overall rank is 46th while Sanders is 39th. Consider this for your NFL picks.
At the end of the day, it could be Sanders’ versatility – he could rush the passer or move inside – that leads to teams going with him as the first linebacker in this class. However, the two will likely go close together in the second round, and we can wait a few years to see which team made the right move.
NFL Prop Pick: First Linebacker Selected – Drew Sanders (+110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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