2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds & Picks: Expect Joey Chestnut to Defend the Hot Dog Crown

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Joey Chestnut eats as he competes for his 15th championship title during the 2022 Nathan's Famous Fourth of July hot dog eating contest. Yuki IWAMURA / AFP.

Top Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Pick

Free Pick: Joey Chestnut Under 73 ½ Hot Dogs -120 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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The annual Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest will be televised live on ESPN on July 4th and Joey Chestnut will be back on the podium to defend his hot dog crown. Consider taking one of our top picks at our top U.S. betting sites.

2023 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

Tuesday, July 04, 2023 – Nathan’s Famous

The GOAT: Joey “Jaws” Chestnut

If you’re reading this article then you likely have at least a passing familiarity with Joey Chestnut, the legendary hot dog-eating king who set the record in 2021 with 76 buns and franks inhaled in under 10 minutes.

The 39-year-old civil engineer is 6’0” and approximately 239 pounds which is on the husky side but not nearly the behemoth one would assume would be capable of devouring dozens of dogs in a matter of minutes.

But nobody does it like Joey Chestnut, who has won this contest 15 of the last 16 years including last year when he downed 63 hot dogs and buns to claim another title and a $10,000 check.

Eating Secrets and Rituals

Many have asked Chestnut how he consumes so much food in such a short amount of time. Like all great athletes, it’s all about training and Chestnut shared some of his tips which begin with a two-day lemon and water cleanse.

“My body knows that it’s going to be digesting a massive amount of food really quickly, so I make sure it’s easy to digest,” Chestnut said. “Most people, when you eat food, it takes nine to 10 hours to really digest it. After I do a cleanse, things are moving quick.”

The champ elaborated on what it is like after one of his hot dog-eating triumphs. “People have told me they can smell the hot dogs. I really can’t, but the sweat afterward, it feels sticky and greasy. My girlfriend says it smells different.”

“Afterward, I’m crazy exhausted,” he said. “And usually, my first thing is either I’m thirsty or I want to go to sleep. I usually take a nap as soon as I can.”

Future in Competitive Eating

As Chestnut approaches 40 years old, many have wondered how long he can keep going at a world-class pace.

“As long as my body’s cooperating, I can see myself doing it for years,” he said. “And one of these days someone is going to come — some absolute boss, man or woman — and challenge me, and I’m looking forward to it.”

“I love the competition, and it’s still exciting,” he added. “Even if I end up getting beat, it would be really hard to walk away.”

Men’s Division Odds (courtesy of BetOnline)

  • Joey Chestnut -2500
  • Geoffrey Esper +800
  • Nick Wehry +1200
  • Darron Breeden +1400
  • Gideon Oji +2000
  • James Webb +2500

The odds on Joey Chestnut over at BetOnline are more generous to chalk eaters than at most other sportsbooks. Odds as high as -5000 on Chestnut are common at many other books but he remains the prohibitive favorite even at BOL and it’s hard to stomach – pardon the pun – laying a price this high on anything or anybody.

Free Pick: Joey Chestnut -2500 at BetOnline

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Total Hot Dogs Joey Chestnut at Nathan’s 2023: 73 ½ (U-140)

Joey Chestnut scarfed down 63 dogs last year standing up on a ruptured tendon in his foot that had him on crutches right before the foodfest. And although reports are that Chestnut is fully recovered, do we really believe that he will miraculously eat 10 more dogs than he did last year?

That seems like a very steep number to me as it is only a few less than the record. I don’t think Jaws will come close to 70, let alone 73 so this looks like a safe bet to me, although I do wish the vig was not quite so severe. However, we will lay the -140 and cash a ticket on Joey winning but not breaking 73 units.

Free Pick: Joey Chestnut Under 73 ½ Hot Dogs -120 at BetOnline

Miki Sudo – The Dominator

Miki Sudo may not have the storied legacy of Joey Chestnut but in the women’s division, she has no peer. The 5’4, 125-pound, small but mighty power eater set the record in the women’s division by eating 48 ½ franks and buns in 2020, which was her seventh consecutive Nathan’s win, but took the following year off to have a baby.

Last year she was back at it and devoured 40 hot dogs to claim her eighth hot dog-eating crown.

The odds on Sudo are prohibitive at -5000 with the field being offered at +2500 but a more interesting prop is how many dogs she will wolf down this year. BetOnline is hanging a total of 43 ½ (O/U -120) which is right in the sweet spot considering she ate five more than that just a few years ago to set the record but was 3 ½ short of that mark last year.

I believe Sudo has it in her to challenge the men, many of whom, not named Joey Chestnut, eat in the 40s range. Let’s go high and watch Sudo break her previous record!

Free Pick: Miki Sudo Over 43 ½ Hot Dogs -120 at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.