2023 Mexico Open Odds Analysis and Betting Preview: Can Nicolai Star in Mexico?

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In this file photo taken on April 02, 2023 Nicolai Hojgaard of Denmark plays his shot from the first tee during the final round of the Valero Texas Open. (Photo by STRINGER / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / AFP).

Top Mexico Open Picks

Golf Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard To Win Outright (+3500) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Nicolai Hojgaard To Win Outright (+3500)
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Golf Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard To Finish Top 10 (+375) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Nicolai Hojgaard To Finish Top 10 (+375)
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Finding players to oppose Jon Rahm and Tony Finau this week looks like a difficult task but one player who has the star quality to win is young Dane, Nicolai Hojgaard.

The big-hitting twenty-two-year-old accepted special temporary membership to the PGA Tour last week after being runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship a few weeks ago. Interestingly, that was one of the South American events on the PGA Tour and they have a proven strong correlation with agronomy here in Mexico.

Nicolai Hojgaard is a star in the making and a Ryder Cup debut in Rome awaits him but for now, this week represents a strong opportunity for Nicolai Hojgaard to nail down his PGA Tour privileges like Tony Kim did last year by winning a PGA Tour event.

Course Notes

  • Vidanta Nuevo Vallarta, Nayarit, Mexico.
  • Par 71, 7456 yards.
  • Paspalum heavy course with the big fairways, rough and greens all made up from the grainy grass.
  • Greg Norman’s design did not play as easily as predicted last year.
  • Key Metrics – long driving and SG Putting.

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast long-range looks settled for the Mexico Open this week, with no wind at the weekend and only a 10-12 mph breeze on Thursday and Friday.

Last Year

Last year the inaugural Mexico Open was won by Jon Rahm and now a year on, the new Masters champion defends his crown and remarkably only nine of the top-100 ranked players have entered. With Rahm the shortest-price favorite for a long time on the PGA Tour, there could be value lurking down below in the betting market, so below we look at some of the competitors with chances this week.

Main Contenders

Jon Rahm - (+320)

The Spaniard and world #1 is in flawless form so far in 2023 after winning the first major championship of the year, three weeks ago. After winning here last year, undoubtedly, Rahm is the man to beat this week and a very short-priced favorite at (+350).

Tony Finau - (+800)

Ultra consistent so far in 2023 without hitting the heights of 2022, but Finau is a very strong second favorite this week after last year’s runner-up finish in the event.

Davis Riley - (+3300)

Not as red-hot as 2022, but recent weeks have seen Riley threaten better, and last week’s win at the Zurich Classic in a pairing with Nick Hardy came as no surprise. This week with so many superstars of professional golf missing would be a good one to land his long overdue first singles PGA Tour win by going back-to-back.

Middle Ranked

Patrick Rodgers - (+3500)

After a slow start to 2023, Rodgers is threatening to find his best form in recent events and the thirty-year-old from Indiana excelled here last year with a top-10 finish. Patrick Rodgers looks like a solid prop bet in the top 20 market.

Brandon Wu - (+6000)

An impressive runner-up last year, Wu has been a little erratic this year, but these are his preferred conditions, and he was runner-up earlier in the year at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am which looks like a decent correlation.

Chez Reavie - (+11000)

Tour veteran Reavie is trending into his best form nicely in recent events and was a solid performer here last year. The forty-one-year-old won as recently as last July at the Barracuda Championship and is highly respected.

Andrew Novak - (+11000)

Novak played superbly here last year on one of his limited PGA Tour starts and this year the twenty-eight-year-old from North Carolina is in better form. Dangerous!


Martin Trainer - (+20000)

French American, Martin Trainer is a Latin America specialist and is always to be respected in these climbs. The erratic but dangerous sort arrives in Mexico in a remarkably consistent form. Much respected!

Carson Young - (+30000)

Not Cameron but Carson Young is falling on my radar in recent weeks, in fact, he was an each-way selection for the Puerto Rico Open when he finished 3rd. Similar agronomy this week in Mexico so a sleeper with a chance and it may pay to support him in the first-round leader market this week, a market he won in Puerto Rico and the Honda Classic the week previous at prices of (+11000) at BetOnline.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.