Rookie of the Year Pick: Bennedict Mathurin to Win ROY (+800) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
You read that correctly: We’re fading Paolo Banchero for the NBA Rookie of the Year prop. It may seem like the basketball world has already voted for Banchero, at least in their minds; no other rookie is getting the same kind of attention from the lamestream media.
At least not yet. Like my main man Bryan Danielson used to say, fickle, fickle, fickle; the writers and broadcasters who make up the voting panel may be on the Banchero Train today, but we’re willing to take a +800 flier at Indiana betting sites that they’ll be jumping on the Bennedict Mathurin Express by season’s end.
Who Are These Guys?
Before we dig too deep, let’s set the table by introducing some of these rookie candidates. Not everyone is going to be familiar with the names at the top, because the teams they’re on suck – that’s why these guys were lottery picks.
First, here are the six remaining ROY hopefuls on the NBA odds board at Bovada as we go to press:
- Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic (-1400)
- Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers (+800)
- Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons (+3500)
- Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder (+12500)
- Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings (+12500)
- Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets (+30000)
There’s a reason Banchero is way ahead in this race: He leads all rookies in scoring at 21.1 points per game, well ahead of Mathurin at 17.3 points. Banchero is also putting up some impressive numbers across the board, and he can hold his own at both ends of the court. Very promising indeed.
Is Paolo Banchero Overrated?
At these NBA odds, yes. Sadly, the fine folks at Basketball Reference don’t have a Rookie of the Year Award Tracker we can use like we did for our NBA MVP Odds Update, but the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight have some advanced stats we can use.
Here’s how Nate Silver’s crew has this year’s top rookies ranked using their version of WAR (Wins Above Replacement):
- Walker Kessler, Utah Jazz: Plus 2.4
- Tari Eason, Houston Rockets: Plus 1.6
- Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers: Plus 1.2
- Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers: Plus 1.1
- Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings: Plus 1.1
- Dyson Daniels, New Orleans Pelicans: Plus 1.0
- Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic: Plus 0.7
You have to go all the way down the WAR list to No. 12 before you get to Williams (minus 0.8), No. 14 for Smith (minus 1.2), and No. 15 for Ivey (minus 1.6). Those players have all shown flashes, but for now, their performance is below replacement level.
Why Can’t I Bet on Walker Kessler?
Maybe you can. Sometimes a sportsbook will give you futures odds on a player or team that’s not on their list; all you have to do is ask.
Make sure you’re getting better than +30000, though. Kessler (plus 2.2 BPM) isn’t on the list because he’s a backup center in Utah playing 19.5 minutes per game, although he’s been starting lately in place of Kelly Olynyk (sprained left ankle). He might as well be starting in the second division of the Leutonian League as far as voters are concerned.
It’s a step down from Kessler to Eason (minus 0.7 BPM), but a similar situation: Eason is a backup big getting 18.7 minutes per game for a team that nobody pays attention to if they can help it. Credit to these guys for their efficiency in limited minutes, but volume does count for something when it comes to overall value.
Who’s the Real ROY?
We’re only halfway into the regular season, and Banchero isn’t so far ahead of everyone else – at least statistically – that things can’t change between now and April. Speaking of volume, Mathurin (minus-3.2 BPM) is an inefficient scorer at this point in his career, but the voters tend to be overly impressed by raw offense, just like recreational bettors. He’s our value NBA pick for the ROY prop.
Will there be some Mathurin/Nembhard splitting among Indiana-friendly voters? Perhaps. Nembhard (minus 2.1 BPM) usually starts at the 2-spot, while Mathurin comes in off the bench to play the 3 or the 4; they’re getting roughly the same 27-28 minutes per game, but once again, these two polite Canadians are playing for a team that hardly anyone gives a fig about.
Murray (minus 1.3 BPM) is Sacramento’s starter at small forward, and the 24-18 Kings are somehow fourth in the Western Conference as I write this, so maybe he’s got some value for our ROY picks with odds of +12500 at California betting sites.
Pair him with Mathurin at your discretion, and may the sphere be with you.
Rookie of the Year Pick: Bennedict Mathurin to Win ROY (+800) at Bovada
Rookie of the Year Pick: Keegan Murray to Win ROY (+12500) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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