With over 110 million people expected to watch Super Bowl LVII, there is also an estimated $7.5 billion that will be wagered in sports bets on the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
Whether you are a seasoned pro or betting on football for the first time in your life this week, we have some rookie betting mistakes that you should avoid when browsing your favorite sportsbook and being tempted to make as many NFL picks as possible in the final game of the season.
Before you go place your bets, make sure to go over our guides for the best betting sites for Pennsylvania and Missouri residents!
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
Shop Around for the Best Prices
If you like a player prop in the Super Bowl, you should shop around for the best numbers and prices for that prop. For something like Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards, you could find -110 bets at 290.5 yards compared to -115 odds at 295.5 yards at other sportsbooks, for example of a disparity.
Make sure you are getting the best prices if single props are something you want to load up on with your bets this week. Anytime touchdown scorer is another market that could have a variety of odds across the various sportsbooks out there.
Don’t Put Much Stock on the Playoff Results
There is a growing sentiment that the Chiefs will be blown out in this game since their skill player health is not great, and the Eagles have outscored their playoff opponents 69-14 in the two games so far. The Chiefs had offensive line issues in Super Bowl 55 against Tampa Bay and lost that one 31-9, the first time Mahomes had lost a game by more than 8 points in the NFL. The first time he did not score a touchdown too.
But I say hogwash on this idea. Seventeen of the last 19 Super Bowls have been within one score in the fourth quarter. The games may start lopsided, but they usually get close by the end.
The Chiefs have also lost just 3-of-93 games with Mahomes at quarterback by more than 8 points. The Chiefs have gone 32 straight games without losing by more than 4 points, which is two games shy of the NFL record. This team knows how to compete and make comebacks.
Are the Eagles Really the Better Team?
The Eagles under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts have no track record of beating a good team with a good quarterback. The Eagles are 9-1 against winning teams this season, but five of those wins were against teams that had a negative scoring differential on the season. Two more were against teams playing backup quarterbacks, including the Cowboys (Cooper Rush) and 49ers. Brock Purdy’s elbow was destroyed on the third pass of the game, Josh Johnson was concussed, and Purdy literally could not throw the rest of the game.
Hurts is 0-5 in his career against Tom Brady (0-2), Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Dak Prescott. We have never seen this team outscore a great quarterback.
The 2022 Eagles are trying to be the first team since the 2002 Buccaneers to win three straight playoff games by 17-plus points in the same postseason. The last team in position to do that was the 2019 49ers, who lost 31-20 to Mahomes and the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV.
The last team before that was the 2016 Patriots, who trailed 28-3 in the Super Bowl before winning 34-28 in overtime. The only other team to do this since 2002 was the 2011 Giants, who won the NFC Championship Game and Super Bowl by a combined 7 points after two big wins to start their run.
Blowing teams out for an entire postseason is not something we see anymore in the salary cap era. Only those 2002 Buccaneers, who had a historic defense, have pulled it off since 1990 when the playoff format switched to 12 teams.
A Closer Game than The Odds May Suggest
The Eagles may not be a paper tiger, but do not take their stats at face value because of the schedule. This should be a closer, more competitive Super Bowl than Kansas City’s last trip two years ago. With the Eagles a 1.5-point favorite, it is expected to be the ninth Super Bowl where the spread is under 3 points. Of the first eight games, six were within one score in the fourth quarter and the last three all had a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter.
Plan around something close here.
Avoid the Pageantry of the Super Bowl
If you want to bet on the Super Bowl, then bet on the sports side of it and avoid the fluff with other props available for the length of the national anthem, the coin flip, which company shows a commercial first, which song Rihanna opens halftime with, etc.
Unless you have inside information on those things, then it is a waste of money to indulge in something like that when there won’t be another meaningful NFL game for seven months.
Try Out Live Betting But Do Not Chase Losses
If you have never tried live betting before, then the Super Bowl would be a great place to start. It works even better if you did your homework on your pre-game bets and know the lines and expectations well, then you can adjust to what your eyes are telling you during the game to make profitable picks.
Just be sure to not panic early and hedge your bet with a live bet at a poor price just because one team takes a 10-0 lead and you have the moneyline on the trailing team. Let the game breathe a bit as we have seen crazier comebacks before in the Super Bowl.
Do Not Go Parlay Crazy
Professional sports bettors will tell you to avoid parlays altogether, but there is an undeniable lottery ticket craze and excitement to playing them. Some people are even skilled enough to craft winners on a consistent enough basis to make them a profitable wager.
But if you are dishing out $50 and $100 for parlays with betting odds of +20000 and worse, then chances are you are going to have a big losing night.
Same Game Parlays (SGPs) were largely introduced on online sportsbooks in 2020, and that first Super Bowl between the Buccaneers and Chiefs that year was billed as being an offensive showdown. It ended up being a complete dud with the Buccaneers winning 31-9 and no Kansas City player scoring a touchdown, likely killing most SGPs in the process.
Speaking from experience, that game alone could sour a bettor on going parlay crazy over a Super Bowl even if it involves Mahomes and the Chiefs. One bet I personally loved that night was Rob Gronkowski scoring a touchdown and Tampa Bay winning, which did hit at decent enough odds if you played it. Focus on parlays like that with two or three legs if you want to make a big parlay bet on the big game. The Hail Mary attempts with 10-plus legs should be limited to $1 or $2 if you are going to have fun with those.
Are There Any Parlays You Should Avoid?
One type of parlay you should avoid entirely is Super Bowl touchdown scorer trifectas as these are sucker bets. Someone reportedly dropped $2,500 on Isiah Pacheco to score the first touchdown, Travis Kelce to score the second touchdown, and Miles Sanders to score the third touchdown. That bettor will be lucky to get 1-of-3 right, and they have to get all three right to win.
Do yourself a favor and avoid these and increase your chances of victory by sticking to anytime touchdown scorer single bets.
Consider the Emotional Hedge
As a fan, watching your team lose a Super Bowl can be devastating, especially if the game was well within reach of winning.
So, if you are a fan of the Chiefs or Eagles, you may want to consider the emotional hedge and bet on the other team to win. This way, if your team wins the game, you will still be happy even if the bet lost. If your team loses, then at least your bet wins.
But if you go all in and bet on your favorite team to win and they lose and you lose the bet, then you’ll be extra miserable all week and perhaps all offseason.
This is the Super Bowl. Remember to have some fun with it.
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