The Dallas Mavericks trail the Phoenix Suns after one game in their best-of-seven series. Can the Mavericks end their 10-game losing streak to Phoenix on TNT this Wednesday evening?
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, May 04, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
The Suns (49-40 ATS) are a 6-point favorite over the Mavericks (52-35-2 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. As a member of the Suns, Chris Paul is 7-0 against Dallas, but every win has been by fewer than nine points. Does the trend continue, or can Dallas steal a road win?
Game 1 Recap: Suns 121, Mavericks 114
While both offenses certainly scored more than they usually do against each other in Game 1, the closeness of the final score is a misleading one. Phoenix started the game with a 9-0 run and never looked back in a wire-to-wire win. Dallas trailed by 17 points to start the fourth quarter and did not close it to single digits until just over a minute remaining.
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Maxi Kleber hitting five of his six threes in the first half helped the Mavericks from being blown out early. Luka Doncic had his sixth 40-point playoff game, but it was too little too late for Dallas. Jalen Brunson fell back to earth with 13 points after scoring at least 23 in all six games against the Jazz.
Neither team had 10 turnovers in a clean game. The Suns shot 50.5% from the field and improved to 38-2 when scoring at least 115 points this season. Phoenix also made all 18 of its free-throw attempts, the most makes without a miss by the Suns this year.
It was noteworthy that center Deandre Ayton missed the last meeting between these teams in January. He came up big again with 25 points on 20 field goal attempts (tied for his second-most in a game this season), so the Suns are taking advantage of their mismatch at center.
Devin Booker scored 23 points but passed the ball well on his way to eight assists to lead the team. That was big since Chris Paul shockingly finished with a season-low three assists. But he still scored 19 points and finished at a plus-14 in under 30 minutes of action. Jae Crowder also shook off his bad shooting problems in the first round by hitting 3-of-5 from three.
Game 2: Does Dallas Bounce Back?
A long losing streak against one opponent is tough to endure, especially when it involves two teams who expect to be successful. It also feels ripe to end any game now, though we may not see the Mavericks get on the winning side until a game at home.
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However, there is a very interesting stat to consider for spread bettors. This season, the Mavericks are 24-8 ATS after a loss, by far the best record in the NBA. The Mavericks were also 23-9 SU after a loss, so this team knows how to bounce back and avoid a losing streak. In fact, only the Suns (16-4) won a higher rate of games after a loss this season.
This is great news for Dallas, but it sure is going to be tough given the way Phoenix has owned them. The Suns are simply a well-rounded, very difficult team to beat this season. Phoenix is now 13-12 when opponents shoot at least 40% from three as the Mavericks did in Game 1. Meanwhile, Dallas is 7-21 when opponents shoot the three like that against its defense.
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Game 1 was the 13th game this season where the Mavericks shot at least 40% from three and had fewer than 10 turnovers – six more games than any other team. NBA teams are 107-18 (.856) this season when doing those two things in a game. Dallas was 12-0 in such games but suffered its first loss to Phoenix on Monday.
Can Doncic really do better than 45 points on 50% shooting? Maybe not, but the improvements need to come from the supporting cast. Kleber had 10 points in the last three games against Utah combined, so he is unlikely to repeat his 19-point performance with five threes.
Fortunately, some of that regression can be offset by Brunson stepping up his game after a weak Game 1. Reggie Bullock basically exists on offense to shoot threes, but he is now just 3-for-16 from beyond the arc against Phoenix this season.
Maybe the Mavericks just don’t have the right stuff on the roster this year to take down the Suns.
Predictions
Phoenix led by as many as 21 points in Game 1 before winning 121-114. Phoenix’s constant defeat of Dallas despite the final score never getting into double digits has been remarkable, and my pick for this game feels that it will continue for at least another game.
Look for the Mavericks to keep it closer in a lower-scoring game, though it should be a game the Suns still come out on top. But let’s back the Mavericks, who are 10-3 ATS as an underdog of at least five points, for your NBA picks this Wednesday.
Score Prediction: Suns 110, Mavericks 105
NBA Pick: Mavericks +6 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
