JR's 2023-2024 NBA plays

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Jrgum3

Jrgum3

Joined
Oct 18, 2021
Messages
4,002
5/8/24
Indiana Pacers +4.5 -105 1.05u to win 1u
Indiana Pacers ML +171 0.5u to win 0.85u

Only one game tonight between the Pacers and Knicks and I'm expecting another competitive game. Game 1 was nip and tuck and the Knicks were fortunate to prevail. I decided to play the Pacers here both ATS and sprinkle half a unit on the ML because I think they're live to win a game here even in front of jacked Garden crowd. I expect the Pacers to play better tonight and honestly they had a shot in game 1 to win so I'm taking them here because I think this will be a close competitive series throughout because these teams are evenly matched despite the fact that I do think the Knicks win the series. I just feel like this will be a long series after watching game one come down to the wire so I'm on the Pacers to bounce back tonight and get game 2 on the road to even the series.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
35,959
5/8/24
Indiana Pacers +4.5 -105 1.05u to win 1u
Indiana Pacers ML +171 0.5u to win 0.85u

Only one game tonight between the Pacers and Knicks and I'm expecting another competitive game. Game 1 was nip and tuck and the Knicks were fortunate to prevail. I decided to play the Pacers here both ATS and sprinkle half a unit on the ML because I think they're live to win a game here even in front of jacked Garden crowd. I expect the Pacers to play better tonight and honestly they had a shot in game 1 to win so I'm taking them here because I think this will be a close competitive series throughout because these teams are evenly matched despite the fact that I do think the Knicks win the series. I just feel like this will be a long series after watching game one come down to the wire so I'm on the Pacers to bounce back tonight and get game 2 on the road to even the series.
We're tailing you tonight.

A little bigger bet than normal for me tonight (its only a nickle) but I absolutely believe you got this one pegged.

Lets go Pacers.
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

Joined
Oct 18, 2021
Messages
4,002
We're tailing you tonight.

A little bigger bet than normal for me tonight (its only a nickle) but I absolutely believe you got this one pegged.

Lets go Pacers.
Sorry I let you down man I thought we were good but it's almost like the Pacers relaxed because Brunson was down and they went into halftime up 10. When he came back it ignited the Knicks and fueled their comeback. We'll see what happens when this series shifts to Indiana but it appears the Knicks have command of this series because they have the best player in the series and he has a better supporting cast than Haliburton. The one wild card though is how hurt is OG Anunoby because that dude is a stud and him being down could hurt the Knicks whose depth is being tested in this series.

Playoff record: 17-19 -4.26 Units
 

Tanko

Tanko

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Oct 27, 2021
Messages
35,959
Sorry I let you down man I thought we were good but it's almost like the Pacers relaxed because Brunson was down and they went into halftime up 10. When he came back it ignited the Knicks and fueled their comeback. We'll see what happens when this series shifts to Indiana but it appears the Knicks have command of this series because they have the best player in the series and he has a better supporting cast than Haliburton. The one wild card though is how hurt is OG Anunoby because that dude is a stud and him being down could hurt the Knicks whose depth is being tested in this series.

Playoff record: 17-19 -4.26 Units
It was great the first half.... easy peasy. Then the wheels came of in 2H.
On to the next play.
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

Joined
Oct 18, 2021
Messages
4,002
5/9/24
Boston Celtics 1H TT o59 -115 1.15u to win 1u
Dallas/OKC o217 -108 1.08u to win 1u

2 plays for tonight on the 2 game card we have in store for us. First up I took Boston team total o59 in the 1H. This is one of those auto plays that keeps presenting itself to us whenever Boston is at home. You can play Boston 1H ATS in general but I didn't want to lay 8 or even 9 points although I do think that its likely Boston goes into halftime up double digits against a helpless Cavs squad. The Celts are clearly better and while they did throw in a clunker in game 2 of their first round series against Miami I don't think that happens here because they know it benefits them greatly to get this series over as quickly as possible. So I'm going with them scoring at least 60 points in the first half because they have been an offensive juggarnaut at home and I don't see that stopping here against Cleveland who doesn't match up well with Boston at all.

For my second play I took the over 217 in the Dallas/OKC game. I think Dallas plays with a greater sense of urgency and this one hopefully stays competitive throughout. Kyrie and Luka have to play better for Dallas to have a chance and I think they will so we will see points in this one. The only reason game 1 didn't go over is because it was a blowout and the combination of missed free throws as well as Dallas pulling their starters with 5 minutes left led to an under in game 1. I don't think that happens here and we get a total that soars over 217.
 

Tanko

Tanko

Joined
Oct 27, 2021
Messages
35,959
5/9/24
Boston Celtics 1H TT o59 -115 1.15u to win 1u
Dallas/OKC o217 -108 1.08u to win 1u

2 plays for tonight on the 2 game card we have in store for us. First up I took Boston team total o59 in the 1H. This is one of those auto plays that keeps presenting itself to us whenever Boston is at home. You can play Boston 1H ATS in general but I didn't want to lay 8 or even 9 points although I do think that its likely Boston goes into halftime up double digits against a helpless Cavs squad. The Celts are clearly better and while they did throw in a clunker in game 2 of their first round series against Miami I don't think that happens here because they know it benefits them greatly to get this series over as quickly as possible. So I'm going with them scoring at least 60 points in the first half because they have been an offensive juggarnaut at home and I don't see that stopping here against Cleveland who doesn't match up well with Boston at all.

For my second play I took the over 217 in the Dallas/OKC game. I think Dallas plays with a greater sense of urgency and this one hopefully stays competitive throughout. Kyrie and Luka have to play better for Dallas to have a chance and I think they will so we will see points in this one. The only reason game 1 didn't go over is because it was a blowout and the combination of missed free throws as well as Dallas pulling their starters with 5 minutes left led to an under in game 1. I don't think that happens here and we get a total that soars over 217.
Would you rate one or the other of these plays as a better bet?
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

Joined
Oct 18, 2021
Messages
4,002
Would you rate one or the other of these plays as a better bet?
If I were looking to tail one I'd probably tail the Celtics 1H TT over 59. They led the league in first half scoring this year with 62.6 ppg so I think 59 is a low number for them especially at home against a team that they're better than.
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

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Oct 18, 2021
Messages
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1-1 tonight as Boston played like crap the way that they sometimes do in the playoffs and we don't get our first half team total over. At least the total went way over in the OKC/Dallas game as Luka bounced back like you knew he would in game 2. Tomorrow we have two games so I'll be back with some more plays.

Playoff record: 18-20 -4.41 Units
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

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Oct 18, 2021
Messages
4,002
5/10/24
NY Knicks/Indiana o222 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Denver Nuggets +4 -108 1.08u to win 1u

I made two plays on tonights games starting with the over 222 in the Knicks/Pacers matchup. The Knicks are extremely shorthanded with OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson out as well as Jalen Brunson playing at less than 100%. I think this affects their defense as they will not be able to slow down the Pacers elite offense. Pascal Siakem should have a big game now that he doesn't have to deal with OG Anunoby. I also like the over because the Pacers defense is still a big weakness of theirs and the Knicks should still be able to score even without their second best player and Jalen Brunson banged up because the Pacers haven't been able to stop them.

My next play is backing Denver +4 on the road. I know it hasn't looked good for Denver in this series and I'm probably a little nuts to take them +4 given the way Minnesota has dominated this series but I just think the Nuggets will play like the defending champs they are tonight with it being their last stand. I might regret this pick but I really feel like this one will be close tonight and Denver is going to play like their life depends on it so I'm taking the points as crazy as that sounds.
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

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1-1 night tonight as Indiana and New York play a tight one but unfortunately don't go over in a Pacers victory but I did manage to get a split with Denver punching back against the Timberwolves tonight to make it a series. I can see this one going 6 or 7 games like we thought at first but it just didn't materialize the way we thought with the road team winning each game so far. On to tomorrow's two game slate so hopefully I can find another winner or two.

Playoff record: 19-21 -4.51 Units
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

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Messages
4,002
5/11/24
OKC/Dallas o217 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Boston Celtics 1H -4.5 -113 1.13u to win 1u

First up today I took the over in the OKC/Dallas game about to tip in a few minutes. I think OKC shoots it better today and makes the necessary adjustments to keep this game competitive on the road. I do think the short turnaround impacts both teams ability to play defense and this game features plenty of scoring so I took the over.

In the nightcap I took Boston in the first half laying 4.5. I think Boston doesn't play around today and sends a message to Cleveland that they are the better team and I just expect them to play much better today so I took them early here to come out strong and lead by margin at halftime. They should wake up and blow this team out but I'm taking them early because I don't really want to lay 8 on the road with Boston because I don't fully trust them even though I think they should win big today.
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

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1-1 split today as the Mavs and OKC start slow and stay under the total but Boston covers in the first half after pulling away a little at the end. We have another 2 game slate tomorrow so I'll be back capping those games and hopefully I find some winners.

Playoff record: 20-22 -4.61 Units
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

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Oct 18, 2021
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4,002
5/12/24
Indiana Pacers -5.5 -103 1.03u to win 1u
Denver Nuggets ML +130 1u to win 1.3u

The first of my two plays on today's card is on the Pacers to cover the 5.5 points here today. The market adjusted this line a full 1.5 points from where it closed game 3 and I think that's too much of a correction here. I like the Pacers to win today and this time I think they cover because I don't expect the Knicks to get standout performances from their supporting cast again to make up for Brunson struggling. I think guys like DiVencenso and Hart regress a little here and the Pacers still do whatever they want on offense because their role players are finding success now that some of the Knicks better defenders aren't playing.

My next play is on the Denver Nuggets ML tonight. I know it's a tough ask for Denver to go into Minnesota and win 2 games there but I really think they found something in the last game that enabled Jamal Murray to get going. They simply asked other players to help bring the ball up which allowed Murray to focus on his offense and he was able to finally have a good game. Minnesota dominated this series up until last game where they got shellacked at home and while I think this game will be closer and the most competitive game up until this point, I expect Denver to play another good game today and even this series up heading back home so I took them on the ML.
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

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Finally we get a 2-0 day as Indiana easily dispatches New York and looks like they have the upper hand in that series now that all of the Knicks key players are banged up. Then in the nightcap Denver take care of business to rise from the dead and tie up the series at 2-2. I think Denver will win this series because now they've awakened and their core 4 are playing like stars not to mention they're getting key contributions from their bench which is helpful against a team like Minnesota that is relying so heavily on Anthony Edwards. We'll see what happens but I still feel like Denver will win this series because of their championship experience and the fact that Minnesota seems to not be getting contributions up and down their lineup like they were in games 1 and 2.

Playoff record: 22-22 -2.31 Units
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

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Oct 18, 2021
Messages
4,002
5/13/24
Boston Celtics 1H -108 1.08u to win 1u
Dallas Mavericks ML -120 1.2u to win 1u

I have two plays on the card tonight. First up I like Boston to jump out to a nice early halftime lead again against the Cavs. This series is following the same script as the Boston/Miami series where Boston cruised in game one then got punched in the mouth in game 2 before rebounding with an easy game 3 win. I don't expect that to change much here in game 4 as Cleveland has no answers for Boston when they're playing at a high level which I expect them to tonight as they look to wrap this up as quickly as possible. Betting Boston in the first half ATS has been a goldmine so I'm going back to it here as I can see a backdoor cover full game by a desperate Cleveland squad playing from behind in the second half.

In the nightcap I am on Dallas ML because I feel like they're the better team. I know a lot of bettors expect this to zig zag back to OKC tied 2-2 but Dallas has ramped up their defense and is getting key contributions from their role players such as PJ Washington who has been terrific the last two games which were both Dallas wins. OKC hasn't been in this situation before so I don't know how they'll respond but its going to take more than just SGA and Jalen Williams to win this game which I'm not sure if that will happen because OKC's role players have given them nothing.
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

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1-1 tonight but I thought I would lose the Boston 1H and win the Dallas ML not the other way around. Luckily Tatum hit a clutch three to cover the first half for me as I was lucky to get -4.5 earlier in the day before the Donovan Mitchell news came out. Unfortunately for me Dallas blew it against OKC and now the series is 2-2. This is a series that could easily go either way but now OKC has home court advantage. I did pick Dallas to win the series but losing today could come back to haunt them because now they have to win at least one more in Oklahoma City.

Playoff record: 23-23 -2.51 Units
 

Jrgum3

Jrgum3

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4,002
5/14/24
Donte DiVincenzo o22.5 points -108 1.08u to win 1u
Denver Nuggets -4 -105 1.05u to win 1u

My first play today is a player prop in the Knicks/Pacer game. I like Donte DiVincenzo of the Knicks to go over 22.5 points today back at home in the Garden. I don't expect the Knicks to get totally blown out here again at home like they did on the road in game 4. In that game we finally saw Knicks players play fewer minutes than normal and that led to most of their props going under. In this one I see most of the Knicks players playing as many minutes as they can handle in what figures to be a competitive game tonight so I see DiVincenzo once again going over this number like he did in the first three games which weren't blowouts and saw him play 44 minutes a game. If he plays minutes closer to 40+ than I see him scoring more than 22 points in this game because the Knicks need his scoring to help Jalen Brunson if they're going to win this game.

In the nightcap I'm once again on Denver to cover the spread. I just don't them losing 3 straight at home which hasn't happened to Denver since 2022. They are a juggarnaut at home because of that altitude becoming a factor and I think in this case they jump out to an early lead because they know that they have to play better at home to beat Minnesota. I like them to do that though because they figured some things out in Minnesota and those adjustments they made have given them the upper hand in this series. I don't see Denver not winning this game tonight and if they win then I think they'll cover the 4 so I laid the points here.
 
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