Just unusual to see the line changes for both 3 matches today compared to the previous day's matches where almost all lines did not even move a little.
JR's 2023-2024 NBA plays
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1-0 tonight as the Magic cruised to an easy victory at home. Didn't play the other two games but my leans were correct as Philly and Denver both win and cover. We got an early 5:30 pm est tip in the Milwaukee/Indiana series so we'll see if I have a play on that one or if I just try to find something in the two night games tomorrow.
Playoff record: 7-8 -2.65 Units
Playoff record: 7-8 -2.65 Units
Wagerallsports
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Great call on Orlando that was an easy one
Great win, JR!
4/26/24
Indiana Pacers -6.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Dallas Mavericks -4.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
I have two plays on today's three game card. First up I took the Indiana Pacers to cover the spread at home against the Bucks. Giannis is once again out and that's huge because Pascal Siakem has been feasting on Milwaukee in this series and its partly due to the fact that Giannis isn't playing. Indiana is back at home where they should be energized by the crowd and I think it'll be enough for them to cover the spread against a Bucks team that they may be better than because the Bucks without Giannis aren't as good as they normally are.
Next up I like Dallas to cover the spread at home against the Clippers. I don't think Kawhi coming back has helped the Clippers all that much as weird as that sounds but that's because I don't think he's 100% and its screwed up their rotations. They were much better with him off the floor in game 1 and its partly because guys like James Harden stepped up and played a great game. I don't think those guys can sustain that and I think Dallas will play even better at home with Luka leading the way with one of his better games in this series.
Indiana Pacers -6.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Dallas Mavericks -4.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
I have two plays on today's three game card. First up I took the Indiana Pacers to cover the spread at home against the Bucks. Giannis is once again out and that's huge because Pascal Siakem has been feasting on Milwaukee in this series and its partly due to the fact that Giannis isn't playing. Indiana is back at home where they should be energized by the crowd and I think it'll be enough for them to cover the spread against a Bucks team that they may be better than because the Bucks without Giannis aren't as good as they normally are.
Next up I like Dallas to cover the spread at home against the Clippers. I don't think Kawhi coming back has helped the Clippers all that much as weird as that sounds but that's because I don't think he's 100% and its screwed up their rotations. They were much better with him off the floor in game 1 and its partly because guys like James Harden stepped up and played a great game. I don't think those guys can sustain that and I think Dallas will play even better at home with Luka leading the way with one of his better games in this series.
1-1 tonight as the Pacers hang on to win in Overtime despite blowing a 17 point lead which cost them the cover ultimately so that was frustrating. At least Dallas took care of the Clippers in convincing fashion at home to earn me a split on the day. We'll see what tomorrow brings with a bigger 4 game slate to find some winners on.
Playoff record: 8-9 -2.75 Units
Playoff record: 8-9 -2.75 Units
4/27/24
Miami Heat +10 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Lebron James o44.5 P+R+A -108 1.08u to win 1u
My first play on tonights slate is on the Heat to cover the spread against the Celtics. This seems like too many points for the Celtics to be laying on the road in a playoff game in Miami. If this were the regular season I would find a way to bet the Celtics whether that be first quarter or first half but in the playoffs I expect the Heat to hang around here and possibly even steal this game. I didn't take the +340 on the ML but I don't think it's crazy to think the Heat get one of these two games in Miami because for whatever reason Miami always gives Boston problems. I took the 10 points to be safe but I can see sprinkling on the ML if you're a little ambitious and want a big score.
My next play is on Lebron to go over his P+R+A prop. I think Denver wins this game to close out the Lakers because they just own the Lakers. That said I think Lebron will play his best game trying to extend this series one more game. I see him really carrying this Laker team tonight so I took his over 44.5 P+R+A but I don't think it'll be enough to beat the Nuggets who are clearly better than the Lakers. I just didn't play the side or total here because I think this is the best look on the game to make some money.
Miami Heat +10 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Lebron James o44.5 P+R+A -108 1.08u to win 1u
My first play on tonights slate is on the Heat to cover the spread against the Celtics. This seems like too many points for the Celtics to be laying on the road in a playoff game in Miami. If this were the regular season I would find a way to bet the Celtics whether that be first quarter or first half but in the playoffs I expect the Heat to hang around here and possibly even steal this game. I didn't take the +340 on the ML but I don't think it's crazy to think the Heat get one of these two games in Miami because for whatever reason Miami always gives Boston problems. I took the 10 points to be safe but I can see sprinkling on the ML if you're a little ambitious and want a big score.
My next play is on Lebron to go over his P+R+A prop. I think Denver wins this game to close out the Lakers because they just own the Lakers. That said I think Lebron will play his best game trying to extend this series one more game. I see him really carrying this Laker team tonight so I took his over 44.5 P+R+A but I don't think it'll be enough to beat the Nuggets who are clearly better than the Lakers. I just didn't play the side or total here because I think this is the best look on the game to make some money.
Tough 0-2 night as Miami never stood a chance against the Celtics and Lebron didn't quite go over his P+R+A prop despite a big fourth Quarter in a Lakers victory. We'll see what tomorrow brings I may not force any plays since I have to work in the morning but I might see if there is anything I like in the night games and post my plays here.
Playoff record: 8-11 -4.93 Units
Playoff record: 8-11 -4.93 Units
Wagerallsports
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Get em' today JR
4/28/24
Minnesota Timberwolves ML -103 1.03u to win 1u
Devin Booker o6.5 Assists -125 1.25u to win 1u
I have a couple of plays on the nightcap in the NBA between the Wolves and Suns. First of all, I like Minnesota to wrap this series up tonight. They have been the better team in all three games and it hasn't been close so I don't expect that to change tonight even though I expect the Suns to play their best game in this series with their backs against the wall. I just don't think it'll matter too much as the Suns have had trouble scoring on Minnesota's stingy defense. All that said I do expect Devin Booker to go over his assist prop today because Phoenix at least showed some signs of life on offense last game at home and I expect Booker to be the primary playmaker tonight which means he should rack up assists.
Minnesota Timberwolves ML -103 1.03u to win 1u
Devin Booker o6.5 Assists -125 1.25u to win 1u
I have a couple of plays on the nightcap in the NBA between the Wolves and Suns. First of all, I like Minnesota to wrap this series up tonight. They have been the better team in all three games and it hasn't been close so I don't expect that to change tonight even though I expect the Suns to play their best game in this series with their backs against the wall. I just don't think it'll matter too much as the Suns have had trouble scoring on Minnesota's stingy defense. All that said I do expect Devin Booker to go over his assist prop today because Phoenix at least showed some signs of life on offense last game at home and I expect Booker to be the primary playmaker tonight which means he should rack up assists.
Wagerallsports
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GL jr hope you’re right
I feel stronger about this play than I did about the Nuggets last night which was just a lean for me because I figured Lebron would go down fighting and so would his teammates which is what happened basically. In this one though Minnesota has really imposed their will on Phoenix. They're better than Phoenix and it shows in the way they've been able to lock up the Phoenix stars in this series. I could be wrong because it's the NBA and anything can happen but I feel strongly about both of my plays tonight.
1-1 tonight as the Wolves take care of the Suns on the road but Devin Booker misses going over his assist prop by one assist unfortunately. On to tomorrow's three game slate where hopefully I can find some more winners.
Playoff record: 9-12 -5.18 Units
Playoff record: 9-12 -5.18 Units
4/29/24
Oklahoma City -4.5 -103 1.03u to win 1u
LA Lakers/Denver o216 -110 1.10u to win 1u
First up tonight I like OKC to complete the sweep against the Pelicans and cover the spread in the process. The Pelicans have not been able to solve the Thunder defense and are really struggling to shoot the ball in this series while OKC has been able to light it up from the perimeter. I think this game will be similar to the last two where New Orleans got blown out in that I see OKC getting going from the perimeter and not looking back once they get out to a lead.
In the nightcap I like the total to go over 216. The Lakers are going to pull out all the stops once again with their season on the line and I think they'll give the Nuggets a run for their money. I don't know if they can win this game but I think they will be able to push the tempo and score against this Nuggets defense. On the other side I think its a bit concerning that Jamal Murray is questionable with a calf injury but Denver will probably shoot a little better at home and I expect them to push the pace because the altitude will eventually wear the Lakers out and the Nuggets will be able to score on them at will. 216 seems a little bit low given all those factors I laid out so I'm going with the over here and I lean Lakers +7.5 but I didn't get there because I can see Denver running them out of the gym tonight.
Oklahoma City -4.5 -103 1.03u to win 1u
LA Lakers/Denver o216 -110 1.10u to win 1u
First up tonight I like OKC to complete the sweep against the Pelicans and cover the spread in the process. The Pelicans have not been able to solve the Thunder defense and are really struggling to shoot the ball in this series while OKC has been able to light it up from the perimeter. I think this game will be similar to the last two where New Orleans got blown out in that I see OKC getting going from the perimeter and not looking back once they get out to a lead.
In the nightcap I like the total to go over 216. The Lakers are going to pull out all the stops once again with their season on the line and I think they'll give the Nuggets a run for their money. I don't know if they can win this game but I think they will be able to push the tempo and score against this Nuggets defense. On the other side I think its a bit concerning that Jamal Murray is questionable with a calf injury but Denver will probably shoot a little better at home and I expect them to push the pace because the altitude will eventually wear the Lakers out and the Nuggets will be able to score on them at will. 216 seems a little bit low given all those factors I laid out so I'm going with the over here and I lean Lakers +7.5 but I didn't get there because I can see Denver running them out of the gym tonight.
1-1 night as OKC handles business and wraps their series with the Pelicans up like they were supposed to but Jamal Murray called game and the total didn't go over in the Lakers/Nuggets game. To be honest with you though I can't even be mad at that because that was a great game to watch between two teams that left it all out on the court. Just didn't go my way this time but hopefully next time I sweep the board with my plays when something like that happens.
Playoff Record: 10-13 -5.28 Units
Playoff Record: 10-13 -5.28 Units
4/30/24
Philadelphia 76ers +4 -108 1.08u to win 1u
Orlando Magic Team Total u98.5 -115 1.15u to win 1u
I have two plays on tonights three game card. First up I took the Sixers to cover the spread against the Knicks. I think all the pressure will be on the Knicks as hard as that is to believe because it is damn tough to close a team out. This series has been back and forth and while the Knicks are up 3-1 it's not like they've blown away the Sixers in each game they've won. Every game has been close which is why I'm taking the points here and I think this one will come down to the wire like the first four games in this series have.
For my second play I took the Magic team total under 98.5. I think the Cavs win here but I don't trust them even at home after the Magic shut them down in Orlando. I don't trust the Magic either because they've struggled all year on the road. One thing I do think happens is this game is low scoring and I think the Magic's shooting will regress a little here. I'm taking their team total under because I am not sold on their offense which has been their achillies heel on the road pretty much the entire season.
Philadelphia 76ers +4 -108 1.08u to win 1u
Orlando Magic Team Total u98.5 -115 1.15u to win 1u
I have two plays on tonights three game card. First up I took the Sixers to cover the spread against the Knicks. I think all the pressure will be on the Knicks as hard as that is to believe because it is damn tough to close a team out. This series has been back and forth and while the Knicks are up 3-1 it's not like they've blown away the Sixers in each game they've won. Every game has been close which is why I'm taking the points here and I think this one will come down to the wire like the first four games in this series have.
For my second play I took the Magic team total under 98.5. I think the Cavs win here but I don't trust them even at home after the Magic shut them down in Orlando. I don't trust the Magic either because they've struggled all year on the road. One thing I do think happens is this game is low scoring and I think the Magic's shooting will regress a little here. I'm taking their team total under because I am not sold on their offense which has been their achillies heel on the road pretty much the entire season.
1-1 again Tuesday night as the Sixers did more than just cover the spread they were able to extend their season one more game behind Tyrese Maxey's incredible performance in the Garden. Unfortunately Orlando did enough to go over their team total in a game they could have won on the road but lost by one point. I think that series is going 7 games because I like Orlando at home and if the spread isn't too wide on the next game you might see me take them ATS.
Playoff Record: 11-14 -5.43 Units
Playoff Record: 11-14 -5.43 Units
5/1/24
Boston Celtics 1H Team Total o55.5 -115 1.15u to win 1u
Dallas Mavericks -3 -108 1.08u to win 1u
I have two plays today on tonights 2 game card. First up I took the Celtics 1H TT o55.5 because I think it's a bit of an overreaction to the news that Kristaps Porzingis is not going to play tonight. I don't think that matters because the Celtics routinely go over this number especially at home where they shoot better. Also I think they're going to come out strong tonight and I was looking for a way to take them early and this makes a lot of sense to me. They will jump out to an early lead and while I lean to them covering the big 1H spread I think it is just a better look to take their team total over because I see them scoring 56 or more in the first half.
My next play is on the Dallas Mavericks to cover the spread on the road. LA outplayed Dallas badly in game 4 without Kawhi but I just don't know that they can keep that up without their star even at home. Somehow they've played better without Kawhi in this series but I don't know that they can keep that up. I also expect Luka to play his best game of the series which sounds weird to say because he had a triple double last game but he was inefficient and in his own words he let Kyrie down. I think he puts on a show tonight and helps lead his team to a victory and a cover on the road against the Clippers.
Boston Celtics 1H Team Total o55.5 -115 1.15u to win 1u
Dallas Mavericks -3 -108 1.08u to win 1u
I have two plays today on tonights 2 game card. First up I took the Celtics 1H TT o55.5 because I think it's a bit of an overreaction to the news that Kristaps Porzingis is not going to play tonight. I don't think that matters because the Celtics routinely go over this number especially at home where they shoot better. Also I think they're going to come out strong tonight and I was looking for a way to take them early and this makes a lot of sense to me. They will jump out to an early lead and while I lean to them covering the big 1H spread I think it is just a better look to take their team total over because I see them scoring 56 or more in the first half.
My next play is on the Dallas Mavericks to cover the spread on the road. LA outplayed Dallas badly in game 4 without Kawhi but I just don't know that they can keep that up without their star even at home. Somehow they've played better without Kawhi in this series but I don't know that they can keep that up. I also expect Luka to play his best game of the series which sounds weird to say because he had a triple double last game but he was inefficient and in his own words he let Kyrie down. I think he puts on a show tonight and helps lead his team to a victory and a cover on the road against the Clippers.
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