Any Decisions Yet NCAA Tonight?

[KVB]

AKRON +8 (-110)

W MICH +140

AKRON +175

The action for tonight. That Akron line has tanked, dropping all the way to 3.

I have identified this game as a candidate for potential equity to sell back.

I went ahead and opened a position of Akron +145 with the intent to sell back when they take the lead. Here's to hoping the conditions are right to get both these teams as dogs.

Good Luck tonight.

 

[pete0]

Another form of bet size mismanagement happens when bettors do things like bet, say, $100 to win $100 on a +100 MLB or NHL moneyline and then bet $150 to win $100 on another game at -150.

That's saying that one capped MLB or NHL game is worth 50% the risk of another. That's quite a discrepancy and if that's the case then just bet the 50% heavier risk plays as those bigger bet will be the only bets that matter in the long run, win or lose. Their influence will dwarf the smaller bets. Better to just bet roughly the same risk on both games.

The lesson here is not to let the price of a game have your risk flying all over the place. Keep your risk steady and let the bookmaker's risk move around.

I think this makes sense to me.

if there is a perceived edge on multiple games (same edge %)

then just RISK the same amount per each play. regardless if its -150 or + 165

If i understand it correctly.

-----

Becuz even tho i'm hitting a solid 70-75% of wagers, i'm still not up as much as I'd like to be.

This is because i fluctuate bet sizes based on perceived edges/ roll.
Basically bad money management

 

[KVB]

I went ahead and opened a position of Akron +145 with the intent to sell back when they take the lead.

I have closed this position with E. Michigan +183

This is a BM buy.

The Trading Fund now owns both teams as dogs for the same unit risked.

 

[KVB]

I have identified this game as a candidate for potential equity to sell back.

I went ahead and opened a position of Akron +145 with the intent to sell back when they take the lead.

Akron, the Dog, scores first with a TD.

The LIVE line most definitely overreacted, in my opinion. It continued to rise to over +193 with some Akron defense.

I tried to hit +170, then +176, then finally got +183.

A definite overreaction to an expected market event of Akron scoring first to take that lead.

This happens often in these markets. The key is to find the candidates.

I've always said I've never liked to lead early and my curiosity lead into being able to predict when that will happen, to a certain extent.

+145/+186 on the closing trade (pregame favorite) more than satisfies the Trading Funds expected margin on these type of plays.

 

[JDS]

I think this makes sense to me.

if there is a perceived edge on multiple games (same edge %)

then just RISK the same amount per each play. regardless if its -150 or + 165

If i understand it correctly.

-----

Becuz even tho i'm hitting a solid 70-75% of wagers, i'm still not up as much as I'd like to be.

This is because i fluctuate bet sizes based on perceived edges/ roll.
Basically bad money management

Yeah the way KVB explained is the best way to go. I have 19 separate hundred dollar bets tonight regardless of the juice & the juice mind you is low.

 

[KVB]

Damn, was hoping Louisville was going to more like the early look pick em, if not small dog.

Not the case, they will be slightly favored on the road at Miami. Maybe we can observe a move across the zero and pick them up then.

Missed the +103 move at Pinny last night. It didn't last long. This was not a trading mistake because of the it's low margin, I would have strtuck at +103 if I could have. You can't be everywhere.

Pinny sitting at even money while most of the market still charging a bit as this line moves to and past the pickem.

This is what we were looking for.

I will be patient here and pick up the proper price if available but understand, as I said earlier, I have not ruled out the even money Louisville buy. It makes an estimation on what might be the best bet I can get for them under UPSET Basket criteria.

But I think this line has room to move.

 

[KVB]

Miami a major play next week

I certainly wouldn't lay for Louisville outside a pick em here.

Let's see if more of the market will like Miami as a major play and move that moneyline into Louisville plus money territory.

Pickem available at Pinny, Gold.

You are losing value on your major play. Are you still buying in?

I think the market might be leaning your way here.

Which happens to be my way too if Louisville can hit a sustainable dog price.

 

[jjgold]

Louisville season on line here only reason I might layoff Canes and that draining loss last week

WE THINK LIKE PROS

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

335​ 18-Nov​ KENTUCKY +112

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF Visting Dog Fund has added...

423​ 18-Nov MARSHALL +11 (-109)

 

[jjgold]

Washington state should be on your radar

 

[KVB]

Washington state should be on your radar

Too close for me, I think I'm passing.

Also, for these posted strategies, home favorites are not part of the target circle. These Funds attack road Dogs.

 

[KVB]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

317​ 17-Nov​ COLORADO +159

This is a BOL buy.

 

[Tanko]

The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has added...

317​ 17-Nov​ COLORADO +159

This is a BOL buy.

I'm on Wazzu tonight.
GL KVB

 

[KVB]

I'm on Wazzu tonight.
GL KVB

Crazy with that one. I picked it up at +159 and may have picked it up a little too soon. But not much.

Pinny was sitting with a no vig of -/+172, but I feel the sharp side, leading the trade, is on the dog. The market pretty much settled right near +160. I probably could have swung a +165 initial trade for tracking had I waited.

Anyway it blipped and settled. Let's see what happens at the close.

 

[jjgold]

All right, we’re getting closer to all of the games you’ll be very busy tomorrow

 

[KVB]

All right, we’re getting closer to all of the games you’ll be very busy tomorrow

Yeah, that's two rough Mon -Fri weeks in a row, last week the spreads recovered to end up positive.

But that UPSET basket is market tracking, dropped into a range, and could go either way from here. Could stay in the range, or set up for a breakout. We've seen this at SBR. Those breakouts can really move.

 

[KVB]

Damn, was hoping Louisville was going to more like the early look pick em, if not small dog.

Missed the +103 move at Pinny last night. It didn't last long. This was not a trading mistake because of the it's low margin, I would have strtuck at +103 if I could have. You can't be everywhere.

Pinny sitting at even money while most of the market still charging a bit as this line moves to and past the pickem.

This is what we were looking for.

Unfortunately I was never able to get Louisville in the UPSET Basket as they did win the game.

 

[KVB]

We got openers. Making some early buys.

Here's the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket for last week. The Fund was -4.24 Units while going 8-6 vs the closing line with an average of .13 cents ahead of the close last week.

Date NCAAF UPSET Basket 1 Unit Closing Beat BTC ML per bet Line Closer? Average 14-Nov​ AKRON +175 -1 142 Y 0.33 W MICH +140 -1 172 N 0.32 16-Nov​ BC +106 -1 110 N -0.04 17-Nov​ COLORADO +159 -1 163 N -0.04 18-Nov​ MICH ST +173 1.73 162 Y 0.11 KENTUCKY +112 -1 113 N -0.01 NC STATE +136 1.36 105 Y 0.21 E CAROLINA +128 -1 114 Y 0.14 PURDUE +100 -1 108 N -0.08 ILLINOIS +162 -1 130 Y 0.32 UTAH +102 -1 120 N -0.18 WASH +113 1.13 106 Y 0.07 UCF +146 -1 108 Y 0.38 UNLV +154 1.54 130 Y 0.24 Total -4.24​ 8-6-0 0.13​

This is a market tracking Fund that we know oscillates from years of posting in the past. I've only posted two weeks so far and I did post the history chart for the year.

Here's the up to date chart and you can see where we are in this market...

Can't wait to see where that chart goes to next?

 

[KVB]

Here's the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund after last week. Last week the Fund was 8-9 ATS for -1.62 Units while going 12-4-1 against the close with an average 1.15 points ahead of the close in the crude comparison.

This brings the Fund to +.68 Units with a 16-14 record over the posted 30 plays going 22-5-3 against the closing line for an average of 1.20 points ahead of the close in the crude comparison= (no key numbers or margin percent used).

Here are the two weeks combined...

1 Unit Closing Beat BTC Date NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund per bet Line Closer? Average 7-Nov BALL ST +10.5 (-110) 0.91 9 Y 1.5 8-Nov E MICHIGAN +20 (-110) -1 20 PUSH 0 AKRON +17 (-108) -1 17 PUSH 0 11-Nov E CAROLINA +10 (-110) 0.91 7.5 Y 2.5 N'WESTERN +12.5 (-110) 0.91 12 Y 0.5 RUTGERS +3 (-105) -1 1 Y 2 ARIZONA ST +18.5 (-110) 0.91 14 Y 4.5 SAM HOUSTON ST +8.5 (-110) 0.91 7.5 Y 1 INDIANA +7 (-110) 0.91 4.5 Y 2.5 AUBURN +3 (-107) 0.93 2.5 Y 0.5 MISS ST +18.5 (-110) -1 16.5 Y 2 SDSU +4.5 (-110) 0.91 3.5 Y 1 MICH ST +31 (-108) -1 32.5 N -1.5 14-Nov AKRON +8 (-110) 0.91 3 Y 5 15-Nov BUFFALO +10 (-108) -1 7.5 Y 2.5 C MICH +12.5 (-110) -1 10.5 Y 2 16-Nov BC +3 (-103) -1 2.5 Y 0.5 18-Nov MICH ST +5.5 (-110) 0.91 3.5 Y 2 NC STATE +3.5 (-110) 0.91 2.5 Y 1 RUTGERS +19.5 (-108) -1 19 Y 0.5 E CAROLINA +3.5 (-110) -1 2.5 Y 1 KENT ST +13 (-110) -1 10.5 Y 2.5 ILLINOIS +4.5 (-105) 0.95 3 Y 1.5 UTEP +7.5 (-107) 0.93 8.5 N -1 NEVADA +11.5 (-108) 0.93 12.5 N -1 UL LAFAYETTE +15.5 (-108) 0.93 17 N 1.5 TEMPLE +8 (-110) -1 8 PUSH 0 UNLV +5.5 (-110) 0.91 3 Y 2.5 MARSHALL +11 (-109) -1 10 Y 1 NEBRASKA +5 (-108) -1 7 N -2 Total 0.68 22-5-3 1.20

While I've only posted the past two weeks I did post a two season chart and here it is updated...