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Any Decisions Yet NCAA Tonight?

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KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
Damn, was hoping Louisville was going to more like the early look pick em, if not small dog.

Not the case, they will be slightly favored on the road at Miami. Maybe we can observe a move across the zero and pick them up then.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
The KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund has picked up...

301​
14-NovAKRON +8 (-110)
307​
15-NovBUFFALO +10 (-108)
309​
C MICH +12.5 (-110)
327​
18-NovMICH ST +5.5 (-110)
337​
NC STATE +3.5 (-110)
339​
RUTGERS +19.5 (-108)
347​
E CAROLINA +3.5 (-110)
359​
ILLINOIS +4.5 (-105)
385​
NEVADA +11.5 (-108)
395​
UL LAFAYETTE +15.5 (-108)
399​
TEMPLE +8 (-110)
419​
UNLV +5.5 (-110)
427​
NEBRASKA +5 (-108)


Some of these lines are no longer available and I mentioned some of those games earlier and that I was making some buys very early.

Many of these lines are still availabe and avalable widely so. For lines that have moved, compare my work to yours and make a decision on the margin.

For example, UNLV +5.5 is now UNLV +4 and the loss in line is not significant. Akron +8 is now 4.5 and 5 in some places, that's a little more significant. I mentioned I was buying games for early in the week yesterday.

Again, compare my work to yours and consider this a positive field from which to graze.

:hattip:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has picked up...

305​
14-Nov​
W MICH +140
313​
16-Nov​
BC +106
327​
18-Nov​
MICH ST +173
337​
NC STATE +136
347​
E CAROLINA +128
351​
PURDUE +100
359​
ILLINOIS +162
413​
UCF +146
419​
UNLV +154

:hattip:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
KVB do you have your +/- unit charts for these funds ? Would love to see your bottom line for the season.

Here's the KVB NCAAF Visiting Dog Fund over the last two seasons. Only the most recent 13 plays were posted...

Visit-Dog-Fd-11-12.png
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
Here's the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket for this season. This is a market tracking Fund and you can see it oscillate with a slight positive overall trend, as it did last time I posted hundred of posted plays over a coulple years at SBR.

Only the most recent 14 plays were posted for this chart...

UPSETbasket-11-12.png
 

JDS

JDS

Joined
Dec 11, 2021
Messages
44,437
Here's the KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket for this season. This is a market tracking Fund and you can see it oscillate with a slight positive overall trend, as it did last time I posted hundred of posted plays over a coulple years at SBR.

Only the most recent 14 plays were posted for this chart...

UPSETbasket-11-12.png
Thanks for the update love to see your charts & progress I just knew both were profitable.
 

pete0

pete0

Joined
Jan 24, 2023
Messages
2,100
tremendous @KVB

appreciate all ur input

Seems as if ur trying to predict the beating the line to the closer & perceiving an edge.
is this basically scalping off predictive line movement ?

wouldnt it be better to just spot pick the most move perceieved edge ones,
instead at a higher win rate ?
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
Seems as if ur trying to predict the beating the line to the closer & perceiving an edge.
is this basically scalping off predictive line movement ?

No, these plays are triggered when the market shows a number that I see as a betting edge when compared to my numbers. I am pretty confident in the edges and am not surprised that many markets move toward my line. Part of that confidence is the closing line value and margin I get.
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
wouldnt it be better to just spot pick the most move perceieved edge ones,
instead at a higher win rate ?

These are the most perceived edges, technically. The UPSET Basket is more of a market tracking Fund and the chart is important. I buy in and out of the plays the are generated from that Fund. I have been bought in all season and it feels like it's getting a little rangebound.

The Visiting Dog Fund are the best edges. The key here is just how much of an edge I seek. For stability there can be safety in numbers and just taking the highest edges, the most precious gems among the rest, can lead to fewer plays...and more volatility. The more plays you generate with a certain expectation the more likely you will reach that expectation.

My goal with that Fund is to generate as many plays as I can while still maintaining that edge. Give me all the gemstones, almost give me plain rocks, if they're pretty, and I will pull the trigger. Thus, a positive field from which to graze.

Look at this chart of units profit per win percentage and number of bets. The Visiting Dog Fund is running a little hot at 56.3% this season (40-31-3), which is 54.1% counting the 3 pushes.

This chart assumes -110 risked per bet, to show the net profit at that level. Reduced vig yields more, obviously. In these markets, over time, you get far fewer "65% bets" than you will the lower percentages. There are simply more lower percentage plays out there.

Notice that getting 55% of 250 plays makes more money than hitting 65% of 50 plays. At 57.5%, you're doubling the profit 65% of 50 plays.

NumberOfBets
Win %
50​
100​
150​
200​
250​
65%​
13.25​
26.5​
39.75​
53​
66.25​
62.5%​
10.625​
21.25​
31.875​
42.5​
53.125​
60.0%​
8.000​
16​
24​
32​
40​
57.5%​
5.375​
10.75​
16.125​
21.5​
26.875​
55.0%​
2.750​
5.5​
8.25​
11​
13.75​
54.0%​
1.700​
3.4​
5.1​
6.8​
8.5​
52.5%​
0.125​
0.25​
0.375​
0.5​
0.625​


Consider those Visiting Dog Fund spread plays to be made at different levels of confidence or win percentage, all with a perceived edge.

Just how many 65% plays can I get over time? If we add the column of 10 bets to the chart, 65% of 10 bets raises 2.65 units.

But I will surely be able to pull the trigger at 54% and 55% for almost 100 bets before those 10 65%ers show up. Just 50 bets at 55% will raise more than 10 bets at 65%.

If I can continue to expect some type of winning expectation, in these tight markets, it's wisest to pull the trigger as many times as possible.

Counting this upcoming week the Visitng Dog Fund has 85 plays so far this year.

Making the bet that wins, or most likely to win, is nice; but making the winning bet over time is more prudent.

:cheers:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258
The KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket has picked up...

301​
14-Nov​
AKRON +175

This is a nitrobetting buy and I am pulling the trigger at +165 at places like Betmgm and Bet365 in NJ and even some at at BLOWvada...lol.

:cheers:
 

pete0

pete0

Joined
Jan 24, 2023
Messages
2,100
These are the most perceived edges, technically. The UPSET Basket is more of a market tracking Fund and the chart is important. I buy in and out of the plays the are generated from that Fund. I have been bought in all season and it feels like it's getting a little rangebound.

The Visiting Dog Fund are the best edges. The key here is just how much of an edge I seek. For stability there can be safety in numbers and just taking the highest edges, the most precious gems among the rest, can lead to fewer plays...and more volatility. The more plays you generate with a certain expectation the more likely you will reach that expectation.

My goal with that Fund is to generate as many plays as I can while still maintaining that edge. Give me all the gemstones, almost give me plain rocks, if they're pretty, and I will pull the trigger. Thus, a positive field from which to graze.

Look at this chart of units profit per win percentage and number of bets. The Visiting Dog Fund is running a little hot at 56.3% this season (40-31-3), which is 54.1% counting the 3 pushes.

This chart assumes -110 risked per bet, to show the net profit at that level. Reduced vig yields more, obviously. In these markets, over time, you get far fewer "65% bets" than you will the lower percentages. There are simply more lower percentage plays out there.

Notice that getting 55% of 250 plays makes more money than hitting 65% of 50 plays. At 57.5%, you're doubling the profit 65% of 50 plays.

NumberOfBets
Win %
50​
100​
150​
200​
250​
65%​
13.25​
26.5​
39.75​
53​
66.25​
62.5%​
10.625​
21.25​
31.875​
42.5​
53.125​
60.0%​
8.000​
16​
24​
32​
40​
57.5%​
5.375​
10.75​
16.125​
21.5​
26.875​
55.0%​
2.750​
5.5​
8.25​
11​
13.75​
54.0%​
1.700​
3.4​
5.1​
6.8​
8.5​
52.5%​
0.125​
0.25​
0.375​
0.5​
0.625​


Consider those Visiting Dog Fund spread plays to be made at different levels of confidence or win percentage, all with a perceived edge.

Just how many 65% plays can I get over time? If we add the column of 10 bets to the chart, 65% of 10 bets raises 2.65 units.

But I will surely be able to pull the trigger at 54% and 55% for almost 100 bets before those 10 65%ers show up. Just 50 bets at 55% will raise more than 10 bets at 65%.

If I can continue to expect some type of winning expectation, in these tight markets, it's wisest to pull the trigger as many times as possible.

Counting this upcoming week the Visitng Dog Fund has 85 plays so far this year.

Making the bet that wins, or most likely to win, is nice; but making the winning bet over time is more prudent.

:cheers:

understandable. I suppose when wagering (risking) the same amount per play.

Thanks for ur detailed input :bowdown:
 

KVB

KVB

Joined
Apr 11, 2023
Messages
12,258

This line has moved against me.

There's better than +120 out there.

What a deal at +125. Nice margin on that number in my opinion. I was willing to take the early +106, but boy was I cutting it close there.

Will be filling this position faster than others and betting into that pressure.
 
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