The NBA Playoffs have gotten off to an exciting start. While the best, most competitive stages are still ahead, the first round has delivered on the hype. We’ve seen sweeps and upsets in the making. The dawn of potential new dynasties. Superstars are reaching heights once thought out of reach.
And while the sample size remains relatively small in the grand scheme of things, some takeaways have already been established for sports bettors. Some are matchup dependent, but we’re also seeing league-wide trends that we can take advantage of at sportsbooks.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at some early NBA playoff betting trends worth following as we get deeper into the postseason. NHL Stanley Cup Playoff betting trends are also available. Use the top-rated offshore sportsbooks to place your bets and get the best odds on every NBA wager.
How Are NBA Playoff Teams Performing ATS?
How teams perform against the spread in the playoffs can be a solid indicator of whether they have what it takes to make a deep run. Blowing out your opponent in the first round doesn’t necessarily mean you’re NBA Finals-bound, but exceeding expectations when the stakes are highest is certainly a good sign.
Here’s an early look at every playoff team’s record against the spread through games played on April 28:
- San Antonio Spurs: 4-1
- Orlando Magic: 3-1
- Los Angeles Lakers: 3-1
- Philadelphia 76ers: 3-2
- New York Knicks: 3-2
- Minnesota Timberwolves: 3-2
- Cleveland Cavaliers: 2-2
- Toronto Raptors: 2-2
- Phoenix Suns: 2-2 (eliminated)
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 2-2
- Boston Celtics: 2-3
- Atlanta Hawks: 2-3
- Denver Nuggets: 2-3
- Detroit Pistons: 1-3
- Houston Rockets: 1-3
- Portland Trail Blazers: 1-4 (eliminated)
Let’s start at the top. The Spurs made quick work of the Trail Blazers in the opening round, going 4-1 against the spread and wrapping up the series in five games. Even with Victor Wembanyama missing a game and playing just over 11 minutes in another, San Antonio’s wins came by an average margin of 16.3 points.
The Magic weren’t expected to put up much of a fight against the top-seeded Pistons – especially after stumbling through the Play-In Tournament – but they’ve gone 3-1 both straight up and against the spread, putting Detroit on the brink of elimination.
And then there’s the Lakers, who, without Austin Reaves and Luka Dončić, were widely written off before their series with the Rockets even started. But between Kevin Durant’s injuries and Houston’s lack of shooting, Los Angeles has gone 3-1 straight up and against the spread.
We’ll close with the Thunder, who swept the Suns but saw their margin of victory decrease in each successive game. Oklahoma City took Game 1 by 35 points before the difference shrank to 13, 12, and nine, respectively, over the following three.
What’s the Record on Over/Unders in the First Round?
Unders are trending up in the NBA Playoffs, which makes sense. The game tends to slow down in the postseason, with teams devoting more attention and energy to the defensive end of the floor. Rotations tighten up, and adjustments are dialed in.
Let’s look at over/under trends for each series thus far. Overs are the left number, unders are the right.
- Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic: 1-3
- Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers: 1-4
- New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks: 2-3
- Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors: 2-2
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns: 3-1
- San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers: 1-4
- Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: 1-4
- Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets: 2-2
All told, unders have hit in 23 of the first 36 playoff games, or a 63.8 percent rate. Only one series saw the over hit more often (Thunder vs. Suns), while four currently stand with just one over.
Will oddsmakers adjust for the conference semifinals and beyond? It’ll be interesting to see if this trend holds up as the playoffs progress. For now, it’s absolutely worth betting unders.
NBA Playoff Series Snapshots
How are things shaking out in each series? Let’s take a closer look at each matchup and find out where the value is.
Eastern Conference
No. 1 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic (ORL Leads 3-1)
The Magic got their preferred first-round matchup, and it’s working in their favor. The East’s No. 8 seed is one win away from knocking off Detroit, which won a conference-best 60 games this season. It’s been a slow-paced, low-scoring series, and both teams are shooting 31 percent or worse from 3-point range. Don’t hesitate to back Orlando against the spread.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers (BOS Leads 3-2)
Boston failed to close out Philadelphia at home in Game 5, and now the series persists. Joel Embiid was largely ineffective in his series debut in Game 4, but he scored a game-high 33 points in the following contest to prolong the Sixers’ season. The Celtics are 2-0 on the road and 4-1 against the spread. They’re 6-point favorites at BetOnline ahead of Game 6 in Philadelphia.
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks (NYK Leads 3-2)
After three tight contests, New York has finally gotten some separation from Atlanta. The Knicks took Game 4 by 16 and Game 5 by 29, yet they’re still just 2-3 against the spread in the series. The Hawks host Game 6 and could use a bounce-back performance from CJ McCollum to stay alive and force a Game 7.
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors (Series Tied 2-2)
Home teams are 2-0 straight up and against the spread in this series. That’s a strong indicator of what your plan should be for Game 5. Over/unders are also split, so the value here is spreads. The Cavaliers are a 9-point favorite ahead of Wednesday’s action in Cleveland.
Western Conference
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Phoenix Suns (OKC Wins 4-0)
Unsurprisingly, the Thunder dominated the Suns en route to a series sweep. Spreads split 2-2, while overs had a slight 3-1 advantage. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way in scoring, averaging a series-high 33.8 points per game. Oklahoma City needs him to keep that up now that Jalen Williams (hamstring) is sidelined.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers (SAS Wins 4-1)
The Spurs excelled on both ends of the floor in their 4-1 win over the Trail Blazers. Portland averaged exactly 100 points per game, and its only victory came after Victor Wembanyama went down with a concussion in Game 2. Wembanyama’s defense was terrific: he totaled four steals and 16 blocks despite averaging 28.3 minutes per game.
No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves (MIN Leads 3-2)
Save for Game 5, Denver has had trouble figuring out Minnesota’s defense. Rudy Gobert is stifling Nikola Jokić, and the Nuggets are shooting just 30.1 percent from 3-point range. Unders could continue to be the move as the Timberwolves navigate life without Anthony Edwards (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles).
No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets (LAL Leads 3-1)
LeBron James, even at age 41, remains inevitable. Without his two best teammates, James has the Lakers up 3-1 on a Rockets team that was heavily favored to advance to the conference semifinals. Kevin Durant remains out for Game 5, and Austin Reaves is likely to return, making Los Angeles a strong candidate to cover at home on Wednesday night.
Player Prop Trends Worth Exploring
It’s not all about the teams. Some player prop trends are being established through the early part of the playoffs that will be worth monitoring as the postseason continues.
Jalen Brunson remains a playoff riser. He’s averaging 28.2 points over his first five games against the Hawks, and he popped for a series-best 39 points and eight assists in New York’s dominant Game 5 victory. He’s a threat to go for 30 every night, so don’t be afraid to hit the over at 25.5 points or higher.
Victor Wembanyama is getting it done with defense first. The Spurs take a balanced approach to scoring, so his points prop is iffy. Blocks, however, are another story. He totaled 13 swats over Games 4 and 5 and had another two in the series opener. Whether it’s Minnesota or Denver in the next round, the over is worth betting at 2.5 blocks or better.
LeBron James keeps stuffing the stat sheet, but don’t expect it to continue throughout the playoffs. Austin Reaves is due back soon, and Luka Dončić is still planning to make his return, and both players will cut into his usage rate. Take the over on points/rebounds/assists props until they return, but it could be worth taking the under once they’ve reentered the rotation.
Donovan Mitchell is a polarizing scorer in the sense that he’s a different player whether he’s home or away. After pouring in 62 points in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland, he combined for just 35 in Games 3 and 4 in Toronto. We didn’t see this trend during the regular season, so it’s possible it’s matchup dependent. Use it to your advantage while this series continues.
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Final Thoughts
Not every NBA betting trend is worth following. With such a small sample size, certain feats are often coincidental. However, there are still plenty of actionable angles to take into the conference semifinals – and possibly further.
For now, keep hammering the under and looking for superstars to elevate their game. The playoffs bring the best (and worst) out of the league’s brightest stars. Pay attention when they show you who they are.
