2026 NBA Playoffs First Round Betting Trends: ATS Records, Series Odds & Sharp Angles for Every Matchup

Where’s the value in each series? Let’s go through both sides of the bracket and take a closer look at every matchup. 

Eastern Conference

No. 2 Boston Celtics (-900) vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers (+600)

Under different circumstances, this could be an incredible playoff series. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, Jayson Tatum returned ahead of schedule and has looked like, well, Jayson Tatum. There are also questions around Joel Embiid’s playing status following his appendectomy in early April.

Without Embiid, the 76ers likely don’t have a chance of winning this series – and that’s reflected in the odds. Philly even played Boston fairly well during the regular season, splitting the series 2-2 and winning one on the road. Tatum didn’t play in any of those games, though.

To say the Celtics have exceeded expectations in what was supposed to be a “down” year would be an understatement. Boston is 49-33 ATS – the second best mark in the league – while the Sixers are a respectable 44-39. 

The Celtics are enormous 12.5-point favorites ahead of Game 1 at TD Garden, and the total is set at 214 points. The 76ers are 11-12 ATS as road underdogs this season.

Is this likely to be a sweep? Probably, but Philadelphia occasionally punched above its weight this year. In that case, you might be better off throwing Boston to cover a 2.5-game series spread at -185 into a parlay instead of predicting a 4-0 result at +180.

No. 3 New York Knicks (-270) vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks (+220)

Despite their significant seed advantage, the Knicks are relatively narrow -270 favorites over the Hawks. New York won the season series 2-1, but both of its wins came by three points apiece. When Atlanta won on Jan. 2, it was by a 12-point margin (Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns were absent for the Knicks).

It’s fair to say that both teams lived up to expectations this season, and the numbers back that up. Both teams finished a half-game shy of hitting the over on their projected win totals. They were also relatively equal against the spread: The Hawks are 44-38 ATS, while the Knicks (who played an 83rd game, the NBA Cup Championship) are 44-39.

Momentum leans in favor of Atlanta, which has gone 20-6 since the All-Star break. Jalen Johnson remains the primary threat, but Nickeil Alexander-Walker has blossomed into a legitimate No. 2 option, averaging 22.5 points over his final 24 appearances.

Their last meeting on April 6 resulted in a 108-105 victory for New York. The Knicks are a 5.5-point favorite at home in Game 1, and their body of work suggests they can cover: They’re 23-13 ATS as home favorites this season.

One player worth keeping an eye on throughout the series: OG Anunoby. The Hawks have had trouble defending opposing wings, and that shows in Anunoby, who averaged 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds over three meetings this season. He’s projected to score 15.5 points in Game 1.

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers (-550) vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors (+410)

There’s some talk about this being a bad matchup for Cleveland, but I don’t buy it. Yes, Toronto went 3-0 in the season series, but all three games happened in October and November. The Cavaliers went 28-10 down the stretch of the regular season and made some drastic roster changes ahead of the deadline, including swapping Darius Garland for James Harden.

With that said, Cleveland doesn’t always play to its potential. The Cavs are an NBA-worst 33-49 ATS, including 15-23 as a home favorite. The Raptors are 42-40 ATS and 11-11 as road dogs.

There’s also concern about Harden’s postseason history. He hasn’t been to the conference finals since 2018, and his last two trips to the playoffs ended in first-round exits. He largely shows up in the early round, though: Since 2015-16, he’s advanced to the second round or later in seven out of 10 tries.

Cleveland is an 8.5-point favorite at home for Game 1, but given what we know about this team, that line seems to be overvaluing their talent advantage. Toronto can lean on its fifth-ranked defense to close the gap, even if it doesn’t win outright.

It’s not worth backing the Cavaliers to win the series outright, but if you’re looking to build a parlay on series props, adding them to cover a 1.5-game series spread at -220 could be a smart play. 

Western Conference

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs (-2000) vs. No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers (+1000)

Some bettors will see that San Antonio went 2-1 against Portland this year and use that information to suggest that this could be a tight series. Don’t listen to them. Do some digging and you’ll find that Victor Wembanyama was absent for all three games, and we know what a game changer he’s become in Year 3.

San Antonio is a force. The Spurs are 46-35-2 ATS – the third best mark in the league – and went 30-4 outright from Feb. 1 through the end of the regular season. Portland also improved down the stretch and won its play-in game under challenging circumstances, but despite its 45-38 record ATS, it’s actually posted a negative average ATS margin of -0.2.

The Trail Blazers are enormous 11-point underdogs in Game 1, and considering that the Spurs beat them 112-101 on April 8 (again, without Wembanyama), that spread might not be wide enough. 

Oddsmakers are projecting a 4-0 sweep, a prop that’s currently priced at +175. That’s one of the only ways I’d consider betting this series.

No. 3 Denver Nuggets (-330) vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves (+265)

This is the first-round series to circle. The Nuggets and Timberwolves have now met in the playoffs in three of the last four years, splitting the last two results. Denver won 4-1 en route to an NBA title in 2023, but Minnesota responded by winning 4-3 the following year, stealing the clincher on the road in Game 7.

Unsurprisingly, their regular-season meetings were tight in 2025-26. The Nuggets won 3-1, but the Timberwolves won the most recent matchup on March 1, and their Christmas game went 142-138 in overtime in favor of Denver.

Those looking to bet on Minnesota should be mindful of the team’s lackluster 36-46 record against the spread, but the Timberwolves went 39-42-1 ATS in 2024-25, and that didn’t keep them from reaching the Western Conference Finals.

Anthony Edwards hasn’t played more than 30 minutes in a game since March 15 as he manages a knee injury. However, he was reportedly a “full go” at practice earlier this week, and he’s the type of competitor to elevate his game in spite of his health.

Denver is a 6.5-point home favorite in Game 1, and it’s a relatively solid -330 to win the series. With how tight this matchup has been over the years, though, it’s worth betting the series to go over 5.5 games at -145.

No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers (+425) vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets (-575)

We still get our LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant showcase, but it’s a shame that this series probably won’t deliver much more hype than that. What could be an all-time classic is diminished by the fact that Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves are sidelined indefinitely, leaving the Lakers without their top two scorers.

Dončić is attempting to accelerate his timeline, but reports suggest that even his earliest return date would put him in jeopardy of missing the entire series. Reaves was given a 4-to-6 week timetable for return on April 2 following an oblique strain.

Spread records only mean so much given the circumstances, but it’s worth noting that the Lakers are 46-36, while the Rockets are an ugly 36-46. Los Angeles also won the season series 2-1, but Dončić went for 40 when they last met on March 18. How do the Lakers replace his production?

Oddsmakers aren’t counting on Los Angeles to figure it out. Houston is a 5.5-point favorite on the road in Game 1 and a massive -575 favorite to win the series. The projected Game 1 total is an understandably low 207.5 points.

Interestingly, the books are split on how much of a fight the Lakers will put up without their stars. The Rockets are -110 to cover a 2.5-game series spread, but Rockets 4-0 (+250), 4-1 (+265) and 4-2 (+260) all pay virtually the same amount.