The NBA heads into the final weekend of this regular season with nine games on Friday evening. With some bad teams mailing in their performances and others looking to rest for the playoffs, things can be extra difficult to judge this week.
That is why we are going to build an NBA parlay from three games using the advantage of alternate lines that are offered at many of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks, including Bovada (visit our Bovada Review).
With the oddsmakers’ uncanny ability at times to set a line so close to the final score, we can give our NBA picks some margin for error and a better likelihood of hitting. We’ve identified three games in particular where the alternate lines should be most valuable.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Brooklyn Nets
Friday, April 08, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Barclays Center
The Brooklyn Nets (42-38) have won their last two games by at least a dozen points, but the Knicks had them down by 21 points before a furious rally on Tuesday. Brooklyn is a 6.5-point favorite at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers but covering at home has been historically difficult for these Nets even with the activation of Kyrie Irving.
Brooklyn is 8-30-1 ATS (21.1%) in home games this season, the lowest rate in an NBA season since at least 2003. The Nets are also 15-26 ATS after a win, the third-worst rate this season. Cleveland is 14-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
The Cavaliers are 1-2 against Brooklyn this season, but they won the last meeting in January. Cleveland is backing into the playoffs with a 2-7 record in the last nine games, but behind Darius Garland, this team remains competitive.
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Only one of Cleveland’s last seven games was a double-digit loss. Cleveland has fewer double-digit losses (18) than the Nets (20) do this season. They are also tied with Utah for a league-low four losses by 15 or more points, though one of those was last week against Atlanta, a rare domination of the Cavaliers.
I like the Cavaliers to not lose by double digits and would tease them up to 9.5 points in this matchup.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers +9.5 (-170) at Bovada
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Friday, April 08, 2022 - 08:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
The Dallas Mavericks are an 18-point home favorite at the NBA odds against the lowly Portland Trail Blazers, which is six points greater than Dallas’ previous highest game as a favorite this season.
The Mavericks are a strong 8-4 ATS as a favorite of at least nine points. They have a few 18-point wins recently over the Lakers and in their last game against Detroit. Dallas is 2-0 against Portland this season with wins by 15 and 20 points.
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Portland has been ragged all year, a season that’s seen Damian Lillard and just about everyone good get injured or traded. But the team has been incredibly brutal since the All-Star break, posting a 2-19 record with a minus-19.7 net rating.
Portland lost 127-94 last night in New Orleans. It was Portland’s ninth loss by 30-plus points since the All-Star break, and no other team in the NBA has more than seven such losses this entire season. Portland is 6-12 ATS as a double-digit underdog.
Maybe the Mavericks call the dogs off early in this one and mess up our parlay with a Portland backdoor cover, but I would actually go the other way with the alternate line in this one and bet on the Mavericks to win by 20-plus points. Portland is just trying to get the season over with. Root for Dallas to show no mercy as Luka Doncic excites the home crowd this Friday night.
NBA Pick: Mavericks -19.5 (+115) at Bovada
Phoenix Suns vs. Utah Jazz
Friday, April 08, 2022 - 09:30 PM EDT at Vivint Arena
The Utah Jazz has been doing a terrible job at holding leads, though when playing well, this team is capable of scoring a lot of points. Utah still leads the NBA in offensive rating (116.4).
The Phoenix Suns (63-17) have been the best team in the NBA all season, though they have slipped up lately with the No. 1 seed clinched so long ago. On Wednesday, the Suns rested starters Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Jae Crowder, and Deandre Ayton against the Clippers. Phoenix trailed by 39 points in the third quarter and still only lost by four points after the backups scored 48 points in a fourth-quarter rally attempt.
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Don’t forget that Phoenix is a prolific scoring team too. The Suns recently scored at least 125 points in seven straight games, the longest streak the NBA had seen since the 1988 Nuggets.
Those four starters are all expected to play tonight as well. How long will they play? That is a question mark, but with all the offensive talent on both sides and the way Utah can blow a lead, hitting an adjusted over for the total points should be an easy pick in this one.
The game has a total of 219.5 points. In Phoenix games where the total is at least 225 points, the over is 19-9 this season. Let’s tease that down to 220 and hit the final leg of our parlay to quadruple our stake at your favorite top-rated sportsbook.
NBA Pick: Over 219.5 Points (-210) at Bovada
Parlay Picks
- Cavaliers +9.5 (-170)
- Mavericks -19.5 (+115)
- Suns/Jazz Over 219.5 Points (-210)
NBA Pick: Three-Legged Parlay (+404) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
