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Mets vs. White Sox MLB Best Bet: Scoring Scarce in Windy City
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LT Profits
- September 1, 2024
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MLB Pick: Under 9 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are currently on a 9-3 run in our last 12 plays entering Friday’s slate of MLB betting matchups after a 3-0 Wednesday. As usual, we have three more best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel hold great value.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model fancies a total in the Windy City on Friday with the Mets visiting the White Sox.
Remember, the new NFL season starts next week—don’t miss out on BMRForum.com’s $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for your chance to win big!
Check out our other MLB picks for Friday:
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Braves vs. Phillies and Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks games.
New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox
Friday, August 30, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Guaranteed Rate Field
Rookie Jonathan Cannon of the White Sox has had some nice moments this season with no support from the worst offense in baseball. This has us backing the Under Friday hosting Tylor Megill and the Mets.
Deserves Better
Jonathan Cannon is getting some on-the-job training as a rookie pitching for a last-place team, and although he is 2-8 with a 4.57 ERA and 4.68 xFIP, he probably deserves a better record. Yes, we get that he allowed five runs in each of his last two starts, but he had allowed three earned runs or less in eight out of 10 starts before those two outings,
The youngster has a five-pitch arsenal and he likes to pitch “backwards” as his fastball is the least thrown pitch in that repertoire, making it seem faster than its 94.5 MPH when he does use it. His two most frequent pitches are the slider and sinker, with the slider rated 116 on Stuff+. He also benefits from this being the first time the Mets have ever faced him.
Facing Worst Offense
Now, Tylor Megill is having a down year in his fourth season in the majors, at 2-5 with a bloated 5.17 ERA. To be fair though, his xFIP is noticeably lower at 4.23 and he has been very unlucky with a .317 BABIP and 64.9% strand rate. That strand rate looks even more unlucky given Megill’s ability to escape jams with strikeouts.
You see, Tyler has an excellent strikeout rate of 10,53/9, which is supported by his very good swinging strike rate of 12,3%. His Achilles Heels has been walks at a ghastly 4.21/9. He may get some relief in that department tonight though with the White Sox having the second lowest offensive walk rate in baseball at just 6.8%.
And let us not forget that the Sox are dead last in the league in wRC+ against right-handers at a putrid 74.
The Pick
We think that Megill can have some success here if he is able to limit his walks. We also think that Cannon can bounce back from two sub-par efforts, so bet the Under in Chicago.
Predicted Score: Mets 4– White Sox 3
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
