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Padres vs. Rays MLB Best Bet: Perez Means Plenty of Runs
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LT Profits
- September 1, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We are 9-3 in our last 12 plays entering Friday’s big 16-game card of MLB betting matchups following a 3-0 sweep Wednesday. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a toral in Tampa in the Padres vs. Rays matchup Friday.
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Check out our other MLB picks for Friday:
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San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, August 30, 2024 – 06:50 PM ET at Tropicana Field
We have never been fans of Martin Perez of the Padres and we are backing the Over Friday when he visits Taj Bradley and the Rays.
Worse on Road
Those of you who have followed us in the past know how we feel about Martin Perez. He has made a career for himself by overachieving in the ERA department relative to much weaker peripherals. Things normalized somewhat last season even though his ERA of 4.45 was still better than his 4.96 xFIP, although that variance was not as vast as past seasons.
Now things are finally lining up this season as Martin has a 4.60 ERA and a mostly aligning 4.48 xFIP. He has still been the pitcher he always was with a weak K/BB ratio of 7.14/3.20 per nine innings and a high home run rate of 1.56/9. Except this season, the ERA is matching his performance.
Granted, Perez allowed three runs or less in each of his last three starts, but all those outings were at home in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. He has been much worse on the road this year with an ugly 5.82 RRA and 4.87 xFIP.
Lots of Walks and Homers Allowed
Now, we do like Bradley as he owns a 3.77 ERA and 3.64 xFIP, making a step up in his second Major League season. He has an electric 96.3 MPH fastball that has keyed a very good strikeout rate of 9.98/9.
This is not to say that Taj Bradley does not have some flaws, namely with his command and giving up homers. To wit, he has a high walk rate of 3.02/9 and a home run rate allowed of 1.48/9, which have led to his 6-8 record despite his live arm and good ERA. The Padres are certainly capable of taking advantage of those flaws as they are second in all of baseball in wRC+ against righties at 118, trailing only the mighty Yankees.
The Pick
So while Bradley is the better pitcher, we do not expect him to come away unscathed. Add in how poor Perez has pitched in the road and bet the Over in Tampa.
Predicted Score: Rays 6 – Padres 4
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
