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Athletics vs. Rangers MLB Best Bet: Not Too Many Tallies in Texas
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LT Profits
- September 1, 2024
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MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We enter Friday’s full slate of MLB betting matchups 9-3 in our last 12 plays after a 3-0 Wednesday. We return today with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Lone Star State, where our model likes a total when the Athletics visit the Rangers.
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Check out our other MLB picks for Friday:
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Oakland Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, August 30, 2024 – 08:05 PM ET at Globe Life Field
We are not expecting too much scoring in Arlington and are thus betting the Under when JP Sears and the Athletics visit Jon Gray and the Rangers.
Improved Bullpen Helps
Sears enters this game with a winning record of 10-8 while pitching for an A’s team that is 18 games below .500. Granted his 4.35 ERA and 4.73 xFIP are not spectacular, but he had allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts prior to allowing five earned runs against the hard-hitting Brewers last time out. He can easily bounce back here against a Texas lineup that has dropped to 23rd in the league in runs scored this season.
JP Sears has a nice arsenal of four pitches that he has thrown more than 10% of the time. His best pitch is his slider rated a lofty 130 in Stiff+, and that pitch plus his curveball and sinker prevents batters from sitting on his modest 92.0 MPH fastball. It also helps to have the support of an Oakland bullpen that has gone from the worst in the league last year to ranking ninth in pen ERA this season at 3.74.
Pitching Well Before Last Start
Similarly to Sears, Jon Gray was also in fine form before getting hit hard last time out, allowing six runs in only two innings against the first-place Guardians. Gray has shuffled between the rotation and the bullpen, and in his six appearances prior to that stinker on Saturday, he had three starts where he allowed three runs or less and three relief appearances allowing a total of one run.
While Gray is not the pitcher that he once was with a 4.32 ERA and 4.23 xFIP this season, he has lowered his walk rate to 2.39/9 from 3.09 last season and he is keeping the ball in the yard with a low home run rate allowed of 0.83/9. He is still averaging 94.9 MPH on his fastball with a nice separation to his 88.7 MPH slider.
He is facing an Oakland lineup that while being at the league average of 100 in wRC+ against right-handers, has four batters above 100 and five batters well below 100. We trust the crafty Gray to limit the damage against the Athletics’ top four hitters.
The Pick
All of this has us projecting a rather sneaky pitching duel, so back the Under in Texas on Friday.
Predicted Score: Athletics 3 – Rangers 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
