NFL Pick: 2023 Green Bay Packers Over 7½ Wins (-145) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Many NFL teams can start and end an era every couple of seasons, but the Green Bay Packers have been spoiled for 30 years by the eras of Brett Favre (1992-2007) and Aaron Rodgers (2008-2022).
But the Rodgers era is officially over after he was traded to the New York Jets. The Packers are going forward with Jordan Love, the succession plan in place since 2020 when the team shockingly used a 1st-round pick on him.
The Packers are coming off a disappointing 8-9 finish, but the team is not expected to completely fall off without Rodgers. Top-rated offshore sportsbooks still have the Packers with over/under 7.5 wins.
In an NFC North division that should be up for grabs, why not Green Bay in 2023? We look at Matt LaFleur’s path back to the postseason.
The Changes That Matter
Head coach Matt LaFleur has won a high percentage of games in his career, but he will have his work cut out for him with an incredibly young cast of skill players this season.
The Jordan Love Era Begins
There are several teams with a virtual unknown at quarterback this season, and Jordan Love is one of the most interesting names on that list. His numbers at Utah State were more solid than spectacular, but the Packers liked him enough to draft him in the 1st round in 2020 when fans wanted a receiver or defensive starter for an aging Rodgers.
The move seemed to help reinvigorate Rodgers, who went on to win the next 2 MVP awards. Love only made a single start in that time, and he had the unfortunate job of facing the Chiefs on the road in 2021. The Packers lost 13-7, and Love had a rough outing with 190 yards, a late touchdown, and an interception. He also played in Week 18 against Detroit, passing for 134 yards with a touchdown and 2 interceptions off the bench. Last season, Love only threw 21 passes in spot duty, but he looked better than he did the previous year.
Breaking Stigmas
Interestingly enough, Rodgers (59) and Love (83) are the only 1st-round quarterbacks drafted since 1998 who threw fewer than 100 passes in their first 3 seasons combined in the NFL. Usually, when a quarterback plays this little early in his career, he has a high bust rate. But the Packers represent a most unique situation as Rodgers had to sit behind Favre and Love had to wait his turn behind Rodgers.
If Love is up to the task, then he will become the latest in a long line of quarterbacks who were good in their first real season as starters once given an opportunity. Also, for as “bad” as Rodgers was last season, LaFleur still had this team at 8-8 and a drive away from making the playoffs with a winning record. The offense, despite injuries and no real No. 1 wideout, finished No. 9 in yards per drive and No. 14 in points per drive – not bad for a quarterback having his worst season at 39 years old.
If Love can use his mobility to make things happen in a way Rodgers no longer could, then it is another dimension for LaFleur to utilize in this offense, which still has a strong running back duo in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
But what the Packers are doing at receiver may be a bigger gamble than starting Love.
The Receiver Dilemma
The big concern last year was how Green Bay would replace Davante Adams. The concern this year is going with 2nd-year wideouts who struggled to stay on the field last year. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs flashed talent, but they also missed multiple games and played fewer than 50% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Worse, Rodgers took some solid depth with him to New York as the Jets now have Allen Lazard (78.9% of snaps played) and Randall Cobb. This has Green Bay relying on Watson, Doubs, and a slew of undrafted free agents or rookies, including 2023 2nd-round pick Jayden Reed, who can play in the slot.
Unproven Talent
The Packers also saw tight end Robert Tonyan go to the rival Bears. They drafted Luke Musgrave in the 2nd round, and he could be a Week 1 starter in this young offense. If not Musgrave, then the Packers used their 3rd-round pick on tight end Tucker Kraft, who stood out at little South Dakota State.
This presents an alarming lack of depth and veteran experience at the skill player positions across the board. Even the backup quarterback behind Love could be Sean Clifford, a 5th-round rookie from Penn State who will unlikely be ready to have productive starts in 2023 if his number is called upon.
Pass Rush Needs to Close
Green Bay leaning on defense more given the youth on the offense would make sense. But the pass rush is going to have to improve. Last year, the Packers blitzed at the 5th-highest rate (32.5%) according to Pro Football Reference, but they were only middle of the road at No. 17 in sack rate (6.6%).
The Packers did a solid job with 24 takeaways on defense, but 8 of those came in the 2 games in Weeks 16-17. The Packers also faced the fewest pass attempts as the team played from behind often and teams had no problem finding rushing success against this defense.
In typical Green Bay fashion, the team did not sign flashy free agents. Instead, they used their No. 13 pick in the draft to take defensive end Lukas Van Ness from Iowa where he had 13 sacks the last 2 seasons. Van Ness was one of the top-edge rusher prospects in this draft, but do not expect the 2nd coming of J.J. Watt or anything here.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The Packers may finally be unsettled at quarterback, but they still have a coach who has won 71.2% of his regular-season games. In fact, the NFC North still looks ripe for the taking in 2023.
- Detroit is favored but this team spent most of 2022 ranked last in points allowed.
- Rodgers throwing 4 interceptions in a sweep at the hands of Detroit does not feel like something that should happen again to this team in 2023.
- Green Bay has owned Chicago for decades, and the Bears were the worst passing team last year and No. 32 in points allowed.
- Do not count on the Vikings to tie the NFL record with 8 comebacks in the 4th quarter again.
- The 2022 Vikings are the only team in NFL history to win more than 11 games despite being outscored on the season.
With a division like this, it is not unrealistic for the Packers to earn 3 or 4 wins in division games alone. Here are some other schedule facts for the Packers this year:
- Green Bay’s first 6 opponents (and 8-of-9 to start) did not make the playoffs last season.
- The only road game against a team that won 10-plus games last year is in Minnesota (Week 17), the worst 13-win team in NFL history.
- Before Green Bay closes with Chicago (Week 18), it also gets the Buccaneers (Week 15) in Green Bay in December.
Over or Under?
With a lack of trust in the rest of the NFC North, you should trust LaFleur to get the best he can out of this team, and to prove he can coach without Rodgers. The Packers may come up short of their ultimate goals again in 2023 but repeating last year’s 8-9 record in a weak conference with this schedule is very realistic for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 Green Bay Packers Over 7½ Wins (-145) at BetOnline
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2022 Recap: Not with a Bang but a Whimper
Most great quarterbacks do not go out gracefully with their teams. Aaron Rodgers was no different in Green Bay after last year’s 8-9 finish saw the team eliminated from playoff contention in the final regular-season game of the season against Detroit after Rodgers’ final pass in a Green Bay uniform was an interception.
We knew 2022 was always going to be a step backwards for the Packers after the questionable decision to trade No. 1 receiver Davante Adams to the Raiders. Just like in 2015 when Rodgers lacked a true No. 1 after Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason, the 2022 season became the worst statistical season of Rodgers’ career.
Rodgers failed to throw multiple touchdowns in the final 5 games of the season, something he never did in his career before. He also has gone 22 straight games without 300 yards passing, another career-long streak by a wide margin.
Life Without Davante
Adjusting without Adams was going to be difficult, especially if you are relying on Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Randall Cobb, the always-injured Sammy Watkins, and unproven rookies.
But injuries did become the story here as those talented rookies (Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs) struggled to stay on the field. Just as one would return, another would leave injured for weeks. But Watson had an incredible run of big plays starting in November when he scored 8 touchdowns in 4 games, which should have fans excited about his potential in 2023.
The Packers were just getting by at 3-1 to start the year thanks to the defense picking up some of the slack from Rodgers and the offense. But as we would later learn, the defense took advantage of some really bad offenses in the Buccaneers and Bears last year. By season’s end, the defense was below average once again.
Thumb Down
But maybe the noteworthy injury was Rodgers breaking his thumb in London in the loss to the Giants that kicked off a miserable 5-game losing streak. Rodgers even threw 3 interceptions in a 15-9 loss to Detroit, a team that at the time was allowing the most points in the league. But some deflected balls and bad bounces for the Packers that day were indicative of Rodgers not having as much touch with the thumb injury.
Rodgers also was injured and had to leave a wild game in Philadelphia. Jordan Love took over and did some impressive things, including a 63-yard touchdown pass to Watson. But the Packers lost 40-33 to fall to 4-8, arguably the lowest point of the Rodgers era.
Owning Teams
But if Rodgers proved anything in 2022, it is that he still owns the Bears, producing another sweep of them. He also still owns the Cowboys as he led a 14-point comeback in the 4th quarter to get an overtime win over one of the NFC’s best teams.
The Packers took advantage of a late bye week to recover in time to get past a bad Rams team on a Monday night at home, then shocked the Dolphins in Miami by intercepting Tua Tagovailoa, who suffered another concussion, multiple times in an upset win to extend the season.
Rodgers only passed for 159 yards against the Vikings, but the defense again responded by intercepting Kirk Cousins 3 times in a 41-17 blowout where Green Bay scored a pair of return touchdowns.
Back to 8-8, the odds were in Green Bay’s favor to return to the playoffs as the final wild card team. The Packers just had to beat Detroit at home, something they have done countless times before, especially in cold weather. But the Lions were game in the season finale, and Rodgers had a late interception that was costly in a shocking 20-16 loss that put an end to 18 years in Green Bay for Rodgers.
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