Well, hello there my fellow bettors! UFC Vegas 56 is here after a week of no UFC action at the Apex Center, or any other place for that matter.
Our records and unit count have taken a wild ride in the last couple of weeks, with Dave and Matt carrying the load for the team so, my suggestion is, feel free to tail them. Ed and Le are due a bounce back so check out their picks but I’m just fade material at this point.
Regardless, we bring our best bets for UFC Vegas 56 so you can ride with us and have fun while watching some quality fights with the possibility of some added banter in the Bettor’s Chitchat forum of Bookmakers Review.
Joe Solecki vs. Alex da Silva
UFC Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, June 04, 2022 - 03:30 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Solecki vs. Da Silva Betting Preview
For UFC Vegas 56 we're starting early in the afternoon with one of the preliminary bouts. Le Martin has found some value in the fight between Joe Solecki and Alex da Silva, who's, coincidentally, Dave's "Hot Prospect of the Week" (feel free to read that column as well!).
Nonetheless, with da Silva coming back into the octagon after a two-year absence, Le has a different take on this bout. Let's see what she has for us.
Le's Analysis of the Solecki vs. da Silva Bout
"The current UFC odds at the top-rated sportsbooks currently list Joe Solecki as the favorite, priced at -165. Alex da Silva is set as a +145 dog. I think these odds speak for themselves despite both fighters coming off of losses. Prior to Solecki’s recent loss, he rode a nice 6-fight winning streak.
"Solecki is a well-rounded martial artist with an incredible BJJ background. On the ground, he is a big threat as he could easily tie you up.
"Da Silva, on the other hand, is an impressive striker that definitely has finishing abilities. He is also skillful on the ground as seen in his 7 submission victories. I do give Solecki the edge when it comes to his wrestling skills, technicality, and cardio. He strikes in volume which will help him in a technical bout.
Solecki vs. da Silva Betting Pick
"Solecki also has the edge when it comes to experience inside the UFC octagon. An impressive win of Solecki’s was back in April 2021 against a UFC veteran in Jim Miller; Solecki won via unanimous decision. Overall, I will side with the fighter who I believe holds the edge, and that is Joe Solecki." Le Martin
Alonzo Menifield vs. Askar Mozharov
UFC Light Heavyweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, June 04, 2022 - 04:10 PM EDT at UFC Apex Center
Menifield vs. Mozharov Betting Preview
For the Menifield vs. Mozharov fight on the main card we have two of our experts pointing towards the same pick so, as they say in BMR's Forum, this could very well be our equivalent of a "Power Play".
Askar Mozharov will be making his UFC debut carrying a 21-11-0 record. As Dave pointed out in his prop bets article for UFC Vegas 56, this is not as impressive when you consider the level of his competition. Alright, enough with my nonsense! I'll allow the experts to elaborate.
Dave's Analysis of the Menifield vs. Mozharov Bout
"Alonzo Menifield (11-3-0) doesn't boast the most extensive professional MMA record. Still, since his arrival to the UFC from Dana Whites Contender Series in 2019, the Fortis MMA product has fought a significantly experienced level of competition.
"A 4-3 promotional record doesn't pose a serious threat to the all-seeing eye, but the 34-year-old has shown maturity during his rise.
"If you're tape studying Mozharov, you'll instantly notice his lack of grappling ability in addition to the low level of competition he's faced thus far. Menifield will undoubtedly be the most formidable opponent he's faced during his pro career, and it will only take a grappling approach to nullify the knockout threat of the Ukrainian.
"The oddsmakers favor Menifield, and I see a lot of value in this -180 moneyline. I'd personally line Menifield around -250 to -300; it's challenging to envision Mozharov presenting any serious threats outside of a one-punch knockout." David Manyun
Ed's Analysis of the Menifield vs. Mozharov Bout
"Alonzo Menifield and Askar Mozharov are two extremely dangerous and explosive fighters and IQ and experience can be the X-factors. How will Mozharov deal with any potential UFC debut nerves?
"Menifield lost against William Knight in his last fight via unanimous decision at UFC Vegas 44 on December 4. Still, he always comes back a better fighter after his losses. I anticipate an explosive first round, with Menifield making small adjustments in the second round to pace himself, avoid danger and enter the third round with a bit more wind and mind than Mozharov.
"Menifield had to learn about endurance the hard way when he was an up-and-comer in the UFC and Mozharov will have to go through that same process." Ed Solano
Menifield vs. Mozharov Betting Pick
- Dave's UFC Vegas 56 Pick: Alonzo Menifield ML (-180) [1.8u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
- Ed's UFC Vegas 56 Pick: Alonzo Menifield ML (-165) [1.65u returns 1u profit] at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Poliana Botelho vs. Karine Silve
UFC Women's Flyweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, June 04, 2022 - 05:00 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Silva vs. Botelho Betting Preview
For me, the Botelho vs. Silva fight is where the betting value is at. I'm expecting this fight to be decided by the judges but, given the fact that I'm in the deepest of holes with my unit record. I'm going to play it smarter so allow me to elaborate.
Karine "Killer" Silva is making her UFC promotional debut this weekend against fellow Brazilian fighter, Poliana Botelho. At first glance, it's easy to see why the public is almost split (60/40 favoring Botelho) according to BMR's consensus tool at press time.
Silva to Make Her UFC Debut
Silva will start her UFC journey after winning her bout in season 5 of Dana White’s Contender Series, in October of last year. She arrives at the grand stage with a professional record of 14-4 with all her wins via KO/TKO or submission.
Meanwhile, Botelho comes into this fight looking to avoid a three-fight losing streak. After a promising 4-1 start in the UFC flyweight division, Botelho lost to:
- Gillian Anderson
- Luana Carolina
Silva vs. Botelho Betting Pick
After a 13-month hiatus, Botelho has worked on both her physical and mental game and is aware of the importance of this fight for a new contract down the road. She recently stated how much effort she's put into developing her fight IQ.
With Silva looking to get accustomed to the UFC stage and Botelho looking to fight smart in order to secure the win, I do expect the fight to go to the scorecards. Nonetheless, since the total still holds some value (albeit kind of chalky) anywhere South of -180, we'll take the over in the total rounds.
Ricky's UFC Vegas 56 Pick: Over 2 ½ Rounds (-170) [1.7u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
Alexander Volkov vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
UFC Heavyweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, June 04, 2022 - 09:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex
It's the main event as Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov look to keep growing within the UFC heavyweight division. That means that this bout should be electric as it is a great opportunity for either fighter to secure a better future with the organization.
"The last few years have not truly been kind to Rozenstruik, as the kickboxer turned mixed martial artist has dropped three of his last five bouts with all three being losses to fellow bulls in the 265-pound division:
- Curtis Blaydes
- Ciryl Gane
- Francis Ngannou
"And while three losses is still three losses, those are quality losses and all but the Ngannou loss (because Ngannou is the destroyer of worlds) came by way of decision, something that Rozenstruik has rarely seen in his pro career.
"On the other hand, the reason why the Volkov line is so low for him is that he’s lost to both Blaydes and Gane in the same fashion as Rozenstruik lost: An unanimous decision. Also, Volkov’s chin has only been reupholstered by:
- Derrick Lewis (the “My Balls Was Hot” fight)
- Vitaly Minakov (when he dropped the Bellator heavyweight crown)
Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov Betting Pick
"While Volkov lost in his last fight to Tom Aspinall by first-round submission, I would put an unfair amount of money on this fight not ending in a submission. For me, this causes a splitting of the difference and which leads me to take the over 3 ½ rounds as my UFC pick for this event.
Matt's UFC Vegas 56 Pick: Over 3 ½ Rounds (-125) [1.25u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.