Editor’s Note: The Taira vs. Candelario bout was scratched just a couple of hours before due to illness with Candelario. The fight has been moved to May 14th as part of the main card, according to the UFC.
Well, hello there my fellow bettors. Remember back in the day, and I mean way back when the Super NES was life and NBA Jam was the game you spend all your afternoon playing with your friends? And then, remember when you started hitting 3-pointers and the announcer would say “He’s on fire!”?
Well, my UFC venture over the last three weeks has been the complete opposite so in my case it’s “He’s on fade alert”, so you’ve been warned!
Luckily, you don’t come here just to fade me as the gang of BMR experts had another winning week going 3-2 and very close to a 4-1 but unfortunately, Montana de la Rosa didn’t bloom in her fight against Maycee “The Future” Barber and was a couple of points short of covering the spread.
On to UFC Vegas 53 we move on as I look to break my cold streak and the crew looks to deliver their best bets for this weekend. So let’s break down some UFC odds right away! Oh yeah, we are raising the ante for our picks this week!
Natan Levy vs. Mike Breeden
UFC Lightweight Preliminary Card Bout
Saturday, April 30, 2022 – 09:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Betting Preview
We start off with the preliminaries as our very own David Manyun is taking an interest in the Natan Levy vs. Mike Breeden Lightweight bout.
After a year-long layoff, Natan Levy had his UFC debut in November of last year and despite being a slight favorite, the Israeli fighter lost by unanimous decision to Rafa Garcia. That's the kind of stuff that hurts and leaves a chip on your shoulder.
Now, you throw in a rival that hasn't shown much and by that I mean it's kind of a miracle he's on the UFC roster... after what he's shown. But I'll let Dave do the technical talking!
David's Pick
"When 40-year-old Nick Compton, with a 12-8 record, nearly finished Breeden at FAC 8, I didn't believe he'd see the light of day to one day earn a UFC contract.
"If we completely neglect the skillsets of each man and strictly judge the experience of Levy and Breeden, Levy has faced much stiffer competition whilst he notably owns the more dependable martial arts background.
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"The available odds favor Levy, and rightfully so, but we're still receiving a price tag that boasts significant value, and I'm confident the Israeli can get the job done." David Manyun
David's UFC Vegas 53 Pick: Levy to Win ML (-181) [2.6u returns 2u profit] at BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)
Tatsuro Taira vs. Carlos Candelario
UFC Flyweight Preliminary Card Bout
Betting Preview
Well, what better way to get out of the hole than by capitalizing on ambition? Seems fitting for the occasion I'm in at the moment and that's why I'm looking at a preliminary fight between two debutants in Tatsuro Taira and Carlos Candelario.
More Picks: UFC Vegas 53 Prop Betting Picks: The Perfect Proposition
Besides the age difference between the Japanese fighter (22 years old) and Candelario (30), the American fighter did fight go at it twice in Dana White's Contender Series. His first time was back in 2017 and then he received another shot in 2021 against Victor Altamirano in what also turned out to be his only loss so far.
Meanwhile, Taira is undefeated after going 10-0-0 in his professional career and now making a highly anticipated debut in the UFC. The Japanese prospect is a heavy favorite at -240, at the moment.
Ricky's Pick
So, while Candelario will be looking to get some revenge after dropping his first professional fight less than a year ago, Taira will look to show why only one of his ten professional bouts has seen the judge's scorecards, as my pal Dave highlighted recently.
I don't care who wins because I know we are going to witness a great brawl and I doubt it makes it all the way.
Ricky's UFC Vegas 53 Pick: Will Fight Go the Distance - No (-140) [4.2u returns 3u profit] at BetOnline
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Krzysztof Jotko
UFC Middleweight Main Card Bout
Betting Preview
We move on to the main card, as one of last week's winners is looking forward to the Middleweight bout between Gerald Meerschaert and Krzysztof Jotko.
This fight should be interesting as Meerschaert is on a three-fight- win streak and has become something of a specialist in the submission department as eight of his nine victories have come that way. And yes, that includes the last three. Now, the real expert!
Le's Take
"I think this will be a wonderful fight to kick off the main card on Saturday night. GM3 will aim to show off his exceptional submission skills against a durable and technical Jotko on the other side. GM3 is high on momentum with 3 consecutive submission victories over Bartosz Fabinski, Makhmud Muradov, and Dustin Stoltzfus.
"Prior to those victories, GM3 suffered 2 consecutive losses by T/KO - one by Ian Heinisch and the other from Khamzat Chimaev. Meanwhile, Jotko’s last 5 bouts have been decided by decision. Out of those 5, he lost one against Sean Strickland.
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"I don’t think this will be an easy fight for Meerschaert; Jotko should win a technical bout on the feet. As much as Meerschaert has been seen to be “breakable”, so has Jotko but he has not been finished since 2018 against Brad Tavares.
"I do see Jotko winning a technical bout as I think he is stronger on the feet than GM3, however, GM3 has a great fight IQ and can win by a late submission. He just needs to survive Jotko’s striking and get inside the pocket. For me, the value lies with Gerald Meerschaert." Le Martin
Le's UFC Vegas 53 Pick: Gerald Meerschaert to Win ML (+145) [1u returns 1.45u profit] at BetOnline
Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera
UFC Bantamweight Bout Main Event
Betting Preview
It's the main event and what better way to celebrate it than with two different perspectives? Not many others I can think of so, without further ado, let the winners do the talking!
Ed's Take
"Font and Vera’s only losses in their last three fights have come against Jose Aldo. Rob Font had won three straight before dropping a unanimous decision to Aldo at UFC Vegas 44 on December 4.
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"Both guys have yet to be stopped in their combined 12 losses, I see this fight going the distance and I will back Font to win by points. Font’s pressure with his jab can create openings for his power shots and Vera can be hittable at times, not to mention that he tends to give away early rounds.
"Font is the superior boxer, he throws with more volume, has better cardio and has experience in 25-minute fights, as this will be his third straight main event. Vera, on the other hand, has never fought for more than 15 minutes." Ed Solano
Matt's Take
"From the Desk of Matthew R. Ryan. To whom it may concern, please see this prediction per my new column on Bookmakers Review, to guide you through this weekend. Also note you can watch me yell for you on Sunday at 01: 00 PM on WatchStadium.com and that I love you... Yes, you. Dictated to and not read.
More picks: UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera First Look, Betting Picks, Odds and Predictions
"I don’t see either guy getting got from the other in an early round, especially with these fighters knowing the baby cage better than most, fighting all but one fight between them, the last two years, inside of it.
"As a prediction, I’m saying don’t fade the favorite. Taking Font is the smartest move you can make for your UFC picks in this main event." Matt Ryan
Ed's and Matt's UFC Vegas 53 Pick: Rob Font to Win ML (-132) [1.32u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
