Many sportsbooks are reporting losses due to several players being picked before or after their designated spot in the 2026 NFL Draft. According to many industry insiders, the public routinely wins the day in the opening round of the league’s annual college football meat market.
The unpredictability of the draft board created massive opportunities for those willing to look around. Smart handicappers capitalized on this chaos by comparing lines and hunting for the most favorable payouts across top offshore sportsbooks.
Loss Leader
It is no secret that more than a few sportsbooks would rather forego offering lines on the NFL Draft, as the public often does varying degrees of damage. But many consider it a loss leader, a way to entice customers to continue betting at their sportsbook without running into the arms of the competition. It is usually a relatively small loss and one that is acceptable enough to keep rolling out the NFL Draft prop lines year after year.
“Another year, another losing draft,” Mike Palm, vice president of operations at Circa, The D, and Golden Gate sportsbooks in Las Vegas, said after Day 1 of the draft. “We lost just the right amount for (owner) Derek (Stevens) to continue letting us book it next year.”
As Palm alluded to, this year was no different: a few surprises proved costly for the sportsbooks and a welcome turn of events for the betting public. Two of the early upsets included Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love being drafted by the Arizona Cardinals as the third-overall pick, while the Los Angeles Rams shocked many by selecting Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson at No. 13 with the reigning, yet aging, Matthew Stafford under center.
LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane was another costly mistake for many sportsbooks, as the public caught on quickly that Delane would likely fall well before his designated spot in the early teens. That theory proved to be true when the Chiefs traded up to snag the sticky Tigers’ corner at No. 6 overall.
Freefall McCoy
The worst-kept secret was the likelihood that Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy would fall out of the first round, and the public hammered over the total on his draft spot, which proved to be a prescient investment, considering McCoy remained undrafted heading into the third day.
An ACL injury sidelined McCoy for the duration of the 2025 season, and his decision not to work out at the NFL Combine soured many scouts on his long-term prognosis in the league. Yet, despite the “obvious” concerns and hindsight being 20/20, sportsbooks like the famed Circa Sports installed McCoy’s draft position at 17 ½ overall (O-165/U+115).
For many NFL handicapping sharps, that was like shooting fish in a barrel, despite the pricey -165 vig being charged to bet over the posted total. But Circa Sports was not the only sportsbook that lost money on the Jermod McCoy freefall, as many others did as well.
“People think he can step in and impact a roster right away, but there are questions about his longevity in the league,” ESPN’s NFL guru Adam Schefter reported during the second round. “For right now, we have a situation where he’s still on the board, one of the elite talents in this draft in a spot that nobody thought he would be.”
ESPN NFL draft analyst Matt Miller also commented on McCoy’s fall from first-round grace, writing on social media, “I thought maybe Jermod McCoy would fall to the Will Johnson range (47th overall). This is just bizarre. Especially if the concern is more long-term than short-term.”
