Betting Rookie of the Year 2026: How Draft Night Will Reshape Rookie of the Year Futures
The NFL Draft isn’t just about finding players who will succeed in their rookie seasons. Especially in the first round, teams are looking for franchise-changing talents who will set the table for years to come. It’s a big ask, and you never know if you’ve picked up a Hall of Famer or an all-time bust.
Having a stellar rookie year can be a good indicator of what’s in store for the future. Over the past 10 years, we’ve seen guys like Saquon Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase, Micah Parsons and Sauce Gardner take home the award.
While it remains to be seen if any of this year’s draftees will reach those highs, we can comfortably project which players will have the best opportunities to showcase their skills in Year 1. Landing spot plays a big role in determining that, but there are some players that look like safe NFL Draft bets no matter which team they end up playing for.
2026 NFL Rookie of the Year Odds
NFL Rookie of the Year odds aren’t available just yet. The NFL Draft begins Thursday, April 23 and runs through Saturday afternoon. The players that will have the largest impact on the Rookie of the Year race – both offensive and defensive – are likely to be drafted in Round 1.
Until those are available at the best offshore sportsbooks, let’s take a look at three candidates for the award on both sides of the ball.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Favorites
We don’t have odds on them yet, but once they’re available, these players are likely to rank among the betting favorites for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Fernando Mendoza, QB
Mendoza is the one player whose future team is known ahead of the NFL Draft. Sportsbooks are no longer taking bets on who the Raiders will take with their No. 1 overall pick – it’s Mendoza, and it’s been Mendoza for some time now.
The former Indiana quarterback skyrocketed up draft boards after leading the Hoosiers to an undefeated season and their first national championship in program history. As a junior, he threw an FBS-best 41 touchdowns to just six interceptions and completed 72 percent of his passes for 3,535 yards.
Mendoza’s Rookie of the Year case is fairly straightforward: Earn the starting job and look the part of a franchise quarterback. Las Vegas brought in Kirk Cousins in the offseason, so Mendoza’s starting role isn’t guaranteed. Should he accomplish those tasks, though, it’s tough to imagine another player winning this award.
Jeremiyah Love, RB
Love is the No. 1 overall prospect on many draft boards, and it’s not hard to see why. The 2025 Doak Walker winner can do it all, posting 1,652 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns as a junior at Notre Dame. He’s always making big plays, and he has top-tier speed and strength at the position.
Love’s landing spot is a tricky one to project. Teams aren’t as keen on drafting running backs early as they used to be, but Love’s versatility and talent makes him a unique prospect. It’s thought that he could go as high as No. 3, and at BetOnline, under 4.5 draft position is priced at -200.
Love will presumably be the starter in Year 1. At the very least, he’ll see a heavy volume of carries and be used creatively within the offense. Have a rookie year like Barkley and he’ll be an easy choice for OROY.
Carnell Tate, WR
Tate is an outside choice, but as the wide receiver most likely to be drafted first, he’s bound to rank among the top choices for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
A standout at Ohio State, Tate is an exceptional route runner with soft hands and phenomenal body control. He can also line up at any receiver position, and his high football IQ only improves his chances of taking on a substantial role as a rookie.
Tate is most often mocked to the Cleveland Browns, and he would be an ideal fit alongside Jerry Jeudy in the offense. Shedeur Sanders will probably be the starting quarterback in 2026, so Tate’s upside may be somewhat limited compared to guys like Mendoza and Love.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Favorites
The NFL DROY odds are currently off the board as we wait to find out where this year’s most coveted prospects end up. In the meantime, let’s make the case for three top candidates.
Arvell Reese, LB/Edge
Reese is a unique defensive prospect with an unbelievably high upside. He only started for one full season at Ohio State, but he made the most of it, earning First-Team AP All-American honors and finishing as a finalist for the Butkus Award.
It’s unclear which position he’ll play at the professional level, which is both a blessing and a curse. Reese can play linebacker or edge rusher, and he can be elite at either spot. It’s up to his team to decide how to utilize his talents.
The Jets are favored to select Reese with the No. 2 pick, but they may also be in play for David Bailey instead. In that case, Reese may slip to the Titans at No. 4. And while he’s more of an upside play right now, he could prove to be enough of a disruptor to enter the league and make a legitimate case for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
David Bailey, Edge
Bailey is the other choice for the Jets at No. 2, but don’t confuse “other” with “lesser.” The edge rusher is one of the more polished defensive prospects we’ve seen in some time, finishing with 19.5 tackles for loss and an FBS-best 14.5 sacks as a senior at Texas Tech.
A surefire Year 1 starter wherever he goes, Bailey is as pro-ready as they come. His production is off the charts, and while he’s not quite the athlete that Reese is, he still ran a 4.5-second 40-yard dash and has the strength to compete with NFL talent right away.
Bailey is a plug-and-play option no matter where he ends up. Should the Jets pass on him, the Cardinals and Titans would have an interesting decision to make between Love and Bailey.
Caleb Downs, S
A safety hasn’t gone inside the top 10 since Jamal Adams went sixth in 2017, but Downs is a likely candidate to break that streak. A former five-star recruit and a two-time First-Team AP All-American, Downs is an otherworldly talent who can be relied upon to make plays in the secondary for the foreseeable future.
His draft range is expected to be right around No. 9 or 10, depending on who gets taken before him. He’s heavily mocked to the Giants at No. 10, which would be an excellent landing spot. New head coach John Harbaugh has worked with exceptional safeties over the years, including Ed Reed and Kyle Hamilton.
A safety hasn’t won DROY since 1990, potentially setting Downs up for a significant challenge as a longshot. He’s been a top-tier talent at every level so far, though, and there’s no reason why he can’t excel as a rookie.
When to Bet on NFL Rookie of the Year
Short answer: As soon as the lines are out. Don’t wait for the public to get in and shift things around. Our guide has gotten you familiar with the top candidates for OROY and DROY. Use that to your advantage and be ready to bet once the market opens up.
Offshore sportsbooks like Bookmaker are known for setting the lines that the rest of the industry follows. Stick to the most reputable offshore betting sites and you’ll be in great hands.
