The 2026 NFL Draft begins at pick No. 2. Francisco Mendoza is going to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 1. There’s no doubt about it. However, there’s far less certainty about what happens when the New York Jets are on the clock immediately after.
Once again, the franchise needs all the help it can get. The Jets floundered in their first year under Aaron Glenn, going 3-14 while ranking 29th on offense and 31st on defense. The team had a fire sale at the trade deadline. Sauce Gardner went to the Indianapolis Colts, star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams was shipped to the Dallas Cowboys, and cornerback Michael Carter II went to the Philadelphia Eagles. More big changes happened early in the offseason – there are new offensive and defensive coordinators, for once – and now, New York looks to land the type of talent that can change its trajectory.
There’s no shortage of options and the Jets have nine total selections in the 2026 NFL Draft, highlighted by four picks in the top 45 (Nos. 2, 16, 33, and 44). For their first pick, oddsmakers believe there are about seven “realistic” choices, though it’ll likely come down to one of two players: Linebacker Arvell Reese and defensive end David Bailey. The former is thought by many to be the best overall talent in this class, while the latter is less raw and the “safer” choice.
Sports bettors and the Jets have something in common here: We both want to make the pick that delivers the better edge. Using our top-rated NFL sportsbooks, we’re taking a look at the odds for the No. 2 pick and finding the best value on the board.
Who Will the Jets Pick in the NFL Draft?
No. 2 pick odds are current as of April 20 and provided by BetOnline.
- Arvell Reese (-375)
- David Bailey (+180)
- Rueben Bain Jr. (+8000)
- Sonny Styles (+8000)
- Caleb Downs (+10000)
- Ty Simpson (+10000)
- Jeremiyah Love (+10000)
Reese is the overwhelming favorite at -375, with Bailey following at +180. Every other prospect is valued at +8000 or longer.
This pick is the first domino in the rest of the first round. What happens here will alter strategies for teams that follow, so expect chaos either way.
The Case For Arvell Reese
Reese has long been considered the favorite at No. 2 among analysts and insiders, and recent developments have only fueled that fire. Just last week, the Jets canceled their scheduled visit with Bailey, implying that the decision has already been made. Whether that signals a lack of interest or, as Adam Schefter reported, shows that New York had already gathered enough information, is up for debate.
From a football perspective, the case for Reese is summed up in one word: potential. He’s explosive and quick – he ran a 4.46 40-yard dash – and his positional versatility means he can be used in a variety of packages and schemes.
Reese is also thought to have the higher ceiling, though he’ll likely need some time to figure out his role and refine his game. And while that might be an issue for other teams that need more of a win-now prospect, that shouldn’t bother the Jets. New York needs to focus on getting back to the playoffs before it can think of contending for a Super Bowl.
At -375, there’s not a ton of value in picking Reese. Insider reports drive these lines, though, and narratives can shift in a matter of seconds in the days leading up to the NFL Draft. You must stay ready to strike.
The Case For David Bailey
Is Bailey’s canceled visit just smoke? Teams develop all kinds of strategies to mask their true interests and desires this time of year, and it’s certainly possible that the Jets have already decided – behind closed doors – that Bailey is the pick at No. 2.
While New York doesn’t necessarily need a win-now player like Bailey, there’s something to be said about the stability he would immediately bring to a Jets defense that struggles mightily in pass rush situations.
The numbers speak for themselves. After three years at Stanford, Bailey transferred to Texas Tech and anchored one of college football’s best defenses, recording 19.5 tackles for loss and a Division I-best 14.5 sacks. Overall, he had 52 combined tackles, forced three fumbles and recovered one.
Might Glenn and the Jets value a “sure thing” in Bailey over a less refined, otherworldly talent in Reese? You can make the argument either way, but +180 isn’t a bad number to get in what’s considered to be a true debate between the two.
The Case For the Field
Perhaps the Jets shock everyone and look elsewhere at No. 2. A quarterback seems unlikely – New York believes it has something in Geno Smith – and for as talented as Jeremiyah Love is, there are other holes on this roster in more desperate need of fixing.
Making any other selection at No. 2 would also be considered a reach, and why do that when you could trade back? Surely other teams are calling and would be interested in moving up if the opportunity is there. Prospects like Rueben Bain Jr., Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs – if New York is set on one of them, it could afford to move back and pick up additional assets in the process.
In any case, betting on any player other than Reese or Bailey is the equivalent of playing the lottery. Maybe sprinkle a little something on another player if you’re convinced, but you’d be better off not betting at all.
Final Thoughts on the NFL Draft
Round 1 of the NFL Draft is set to begin this Thursday, April 23, at 8 p.m. ET in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Don’t wait until an hour before it begins to start looking for bets. The real value is found early in the week before reports come out tying prospects to certain teams.
Those looking to get the best value on every NFL Draft prop should hone in on offshore sportsbooks. With early lines, more competitive odds and deeper markets, every type of sports bettor can find something that suits their needs.
