Long Shot Pick: Publisher to Place First at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The 2025 Kentucky Derby is finally upon us, and there’s a myriad of ways to bet on this race. We’ll deliver our best picks, and at the same time give you options to consider if an exotic market interests you at the best offshore sportsbooks.
To Win Options (in Order)
8) Journalism (3-1 odds)
Four wins in four tries with the top speed rating in the field (108) and the best group of three. There is no need to overthink this year’s Derby in the top slot.
The lines managers at Bookmaker.eu had this to say concerning Journalism:
“Californian champ Journalism continues to dominate the betting at +270 and will continue to attract money given his favorable draw.”
18) Sovereignty (5-1)
With two wins and two places in five starts, this horse is ready. In both victories, he was running hard at the finish, which suggests the added distance should not be an issue.
17) Sandman (6-1)
A bit of a wild card because he’s a deep closer (coming far off the pace). However, it is hard to ignore three wins, one in the Arkansas Derby.
Top Longshots to Win (in Order)
13) Publisher (33-1)
This is the only horse in the field without a win (seven tries). Yet, he keeps improving, and being saddled by Irad Ortiz Jr. is believed to be extremely positive. Wouldn’t this be a story if the maiden win was at Churchill?
14) Tiztastic (20-1)
Won the Louisiana Derby and was rather highly thought of at that moment, but seems to have lost some juice among horse players who still like him, just not as much as others have generated some appeal.
9) Burnham Square (12-1)
Maybe not longshot odds, still, has the talent. As is the case with those having double-digit odds, if the pace favors the horse early and he can find a lane heading down the home stretch, anything becomes possible.
Across the Board Bets – Betting to Finish 1, 2 and 3
- #8 Journalism
- #18 Sovereignty
- Big Show (3rd Place Only) Bet: #13 Publisher
7) Luxor Cafe (15-1)
The son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah brings four straight wins to this year’s Derby. The victories are lightly regarded since this horse has run in Japan. Nevertheless, let’s not forget Japan-bred Forever Young finished 3rd in this race last year.
21) Baeza (12-1)
Baeza officially made the Derby field Friday when Rodriguez was scratched. Reports indicated Baeza had a quality workout Monday, and his strong second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby changed everyone’s thinking with a 101-speed rating.
Exacta Bets (Finish #1 and #2)
- #8 Journalism and #18 Sovereignty
- #6 Admire Daytona and #8 Journalism
Exacta Box – 2 horses (Finish #1 or #2)
- #8 Journalism and #18 Sovereignty
- #6 Admire Daytona and #8 Journalism
Exacta Box – 3 horses (Finish #1 or #2)
- #8 Journalism, #18 Sovereignty and #6 Admire Daytona
- #8 Journalism, #18 Sovereignty and #10 Grande
Trifecta Bets (Finish #1, #2 and #3)
Using Journalism or Sovereignty in the #1 position. The same two horses could occupy the #2 or #3 slots, depending on who you have on top. From here, you could take a look at any of the other seven horses we mentioned for your preferences.
Please understand, hitting a trifecta or superfecta (exact order 1 to 4) is extremely difficult. A better option for a trifecta is a $1 wheel bet or a $1 partial wheel.
If you like #8 Journalism to win it would like this:
- $1 Trifecta Key: 8 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4 (for place and show, random numbers) Cost $6 (six combinations)
If you like #8 Journalism or #18 Sovereignty to win it would look like this.
- $1 Trifecta Part Wheel 8, 18 with 2,3,8,18 with 2,3,4,8, 18 – Cost $24 (24 possible combinations)
Best Kentucky Derby Picks
- Journalism
- Sovereignty
- Baeza
Long Shot Winner: Publisher to Place First at BetOnline
Good luck and enjoy the race!
