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Bettor Days

Bettor Days

Joined
Jun 12, 2021
Messages
5,091
Wiseguy Team

500 Dime | Florida ML, Baylor ML, Michigan ML, Texas ML, Oregon ML (5 Team Money-Line Parlay)
1,000 Dime | Stanford +3
2,000 Dime | Nevada +3 1/2
3,000 Dime | Miami +19 1/2
4,000 Dime | Marshall -2
5,000 Dime MAX PLAY | West Virginia -3
 

Bettor Days

Bettor Days

Joined
Jun 12, 2021
Messages
5,091
JM Sports

Game: (909) St. Louis Cardinals at (910) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: D units
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -118 K Kim (LHP), A Houser (RHP) Must Start

D unit Milwaukee Brewers (-118) over St. Louis Cardinals (Houser/Kim) —
Houser may not have the most impressive stat line, but a 3.69 ERA isn’t the worst thing you can have, especially when you have an ERA under 3.00 for the games in front of your home crowd. The Brewers also look like they love playing behind Houser, they are 10-2 in his L12 starts (including 5-1 in his L6 @ home) and 6-1 in the L7 vs. the division. Milwaukee is also 9-1 in his 10 starts with a line > -220 and 8-0 in a matchup vs a SP w/ an ERA <6.75! On top of the fact that Milwaukee will be looking to bounce back after last night, and they know how to do it, they are 7-2 w/ a line < 130 off B2B L’s, and 7-1 in the second game of a series, when dropping the opener to a divisional opponent. While St. Louis has Kim on the mound, Kim is 2-5 on the road with a 3.72 ERA and St. Louis is 2-6 in his L8 road starts (1-6 w/ line<175). St. Louis is coming off the big win yesterday, but that may not be a good thing in terms of today, the Cards are 1-4 after scoring more then 10 runs, 3-7 after winning by more then 5 runs, 1-4 as AD off B2B W’s & they are 2-13 off a W with 10 or more hits, when the line is > -115. St. Louis hasn’t faired well as an AD either, they are 1-6 as an AD vs the division (with line between 100 & 165) and they are 8-22 w/ a line ≥ 110 as an AD (including a 7-20 record vs RHP).
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
41,141
Smart Money Plays

Oklahoma Sooners Over 27.5 Team Total 1st half -130 (5u, 1e)
UTSA Roadrunners +5 (5u, 730e)
UTSA Roadrunners +170 (2u, 730e)
Texas State Bobcats +14 (3u, 7e)
UCLA Bruins +3 (3u, 830e)
Wisconsin Badgers -5.5 (2u, 1e)
Marshall Thundering Herd -2.5 (3u, 330e)
San José State Spartans +14.5 (2u, 5e)
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
41,141
Insider Sports Report
E* L.S.U. -2.5 over U.C.L.A. (NCAAF)
Range: -1 to -5
C* Stanford +3 over Kansas St. (NCAAF)
Range: +4.5 to +.5
C* Navy +2.5 over Marshall (NCAAF)
Range: +4 to PK

National Sports Service
D* Rutgers -14.5 over Temple (NCAAF)
C* Rice/Arkansas OVER 49.5 (NCAAF)
C* Illinois -4.5 over Texas-San Antonio (NCAAF)

Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> Cincinnati -22.5 over Miami-Ohio (NCAAF)
C Unit --> Alabama/Miami-Florida UNDER 61.5 (NCAAF)
C Unit --> Louisiana Tech +23 over Mississippi St. (NCAAF)
 

Bettor Days

Bettor Days

Joined
Jun 12, 2021
Messages
5,091
Matt Severance

LSU @ UCLA | 09/04 | 8:30 PM EDT
LSU -2.5
ANALYSIS: Glad we waited on this one as it has fallen from LSU -3.5 to -2.5. I get it as UCLA did look good last week in routing a solid Hawaii team and the Tigers had to relocate to Houston this week due to Hurricane Ida. I would probably take the Bruins on the first-half line, but then the superior talent wins out. There will also be a ton of LSU fans there for what that's worth. Believe it or not, this is only the Tigers' second all-time game in California and first at the Rose Bowl. They are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 on the road. UCLA is 1-9 ATS in its past 10 after a win of at least 20 points.

C. MICHIGAN @ MISSOURI | 09/04 | 4:00 PM EDT
MISSOURI -14
ANALYSIS: Central Michigan will be without three important people Saturday in head coach Jim McElwain (appendicitis), first-team All-MAC safety Willie Reid (off the field issue) and running back Kobe Lewis (injury; 574 yards, seven total TDs last year). Missouri appears on the rise under Coach Eli Drinkwitz and QB Connor Bazelak, who earned SEC Co-Freshman of the Year honors a year ago. He's one of eight starters back on offense and the defense brings back eight plus three transfers who have combined for 70 career starts elsewhere. That group is led by former Rice linebacker Blaze Alldredge, who was a two-time C-USA first team selection. I would do an alternate line of Mizzou -13.5 but I don't think this spread will drop that far otherwise.

MARSHALL @ NAVY | 09/04 | 3:30 PM EDT
MARSHALL -2.5
ANALYSIS: Not sure I would go as far as Micah Roberts in saying that this is the biggest Week 1 mistake on the board spread-wise, but I do agree the Thundering Herd should be favored a bit more so let's get this while it's under 3. They were spectacular against the run last year and bring nearly everyone back on that side of the ball -- plus add a few transfers. Getting essentially all offseason to prepare for that one-dimensional Navy rush attack is a huge plus as opposed to having to do so in a week during a season. Marshall also has a pretty good QB in Grant Wells, who in 2020 was the first Conference USA quarterback in history to early first team all-league honors. The Middies are 1-4 in their past five as dogs.

STANFORD @ KANSAS ST. | 09/04 | 12:00 PM EDT
KANSAS ST. -2.5
ANALYSIS: Neutral-site game from Dallas, with K-State serving the home team and should also have the major fan advantage. When you don't have one clear starting QB, that is usually a problem. Stanford doesn't as David Shaw said both Jack West and Tanner McKee will play against Kansas State. They have combined to attempt just 63 NCAA passes. KSU brings back one of the most experienced QBs in the nation in super senior Skylar Thompson, who has 30 starts. Stanford also has injury issues regarding top wideout Michael Wilson and defensive backs Jonathan McGill and Salim Turner-Muhammad. The early start time also could be a factor for the West Coast Cardinal.

TEXAS TECH @ HOUSTON | 09/04 | 7:00 PM EDT
TEXAS TECH -1.5
ANALYSIS: It's a big year for Texas Tech coach Matt Wells as he is just 8-14 in his two seasons in Lubbock. The Red Raiders landed one of the top transfer QBs on the market this offseason in former Oregon starter Tyler Shough, a potential 2022 NFL first-round pick. Wells also upgraded at offensive coordinator by hiring Sonny Cumbie away from TCU. Cumbie is a former Texas Tech quarterback and assistant. The defense has nine starters back. Houston is a solid team, but the Red Raiders should be able to win by at least a field goal in the Texas Kickoff. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their past four as underdogs.

NOTRE DAME @ FLORIDA ST. | 09/05 | 7:30 PM EDT
FLORIDA ST. +8
ANALYSIS: OK, well I have to respond to Micah Roberts -- who, let's be clear, probably knows more about odds than I ever will. Completely disagree here. The Noles are gonna be scary good with McKenzie Milton, and the Irish have among the fewest returning starters in college football. New QB Jack Coan lost his job at Wisconsin. Not saying FSU will win but .. yeah. I'll happily take the points. Eighteen of the past 19 years an AP Top 10 wasn't ranked at end. If you watched Early Edge recently, I believe that's the Irish. Also believe Brian Kelly will be in the NFL after this year.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

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Mar 6, 2018
Messages
41,141
Micah Roberts

ATLANTA @ COLORADO | 09/04 | 8:10 PM EDT
COLORADO +101
ANALYSIS: German Marquez has the luxury of understanding Coors Field and how it works for a starting pitcher, something that no one, except two in the past, has figured out yet. In 15 home starts he has a 3.13 ERA, and the Rockies are 12-3. Ian Anderson will make his Coors Field, and he’s somehow favored. The Rockies are 44-23 at home. Rockies to win.

LSU @ UCLA | 09/04 | 8:30 PM EDT
UCLA +2.5
ANALYSIS: Chip Kelly might finally have something brewing in his fourth season at UCLA after beginning 10-21. The Bruins have the luxury of having a game under their belt with most of their starters (19) back from last season, and they bullied their way last week to a 44-10 win against Hawaii powered by the running game. LSU has mother nature issues on its mind at home, questions at QB and questions about a defense that allowed 492.0 yards and 34.9 points per game last season. I took UCLA plus the points.

PENN ST. @ WISCONSIN | 09/04 | 12:00 PM EDT
PENN ST. +5.5
ANALYSIS: I look for Penn State to carry momentum from winning its last four games after a rough start to 2020. Mostly, I don’t trust Badgers sophomore QB Graham Mertz, who threw five TDs in the 2020 opener against Illinois, but then threw just four TDs to five interceptions in the final six games as Wisconsin went 3-3. I look for both defenses to shine. Take Penn State plus the too many points.

MARSHALL @ NAVY | 09/04 | 3:30 PM EDT
MARSHALL -2.5
ANALYSIS: This is one of the biggest mistakes on the board in Week 1, as Marshall should be favored by more than a touchdown. Navy doesn’t have much experience returning from 2020's 3-7 squad - just four players on offense, and not the quarterback. Marshall has a new head coach in Charles Huff, but offensive coordinator Tim Cramsey and QB Grant Wells both are back from a club that began last season with seven straight wins. Eight starters return from the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense (13 ppg) in 2020. It shouldn’t be close. Take Marshall to cover.

TEMPLE @ RUTGERS | 09/02 | 6:30 PM EDT
RUTGERS -14
ANALYSIS: No value with the number, but I have lots of optimism for Greg Schiano’s second season back at Rutgers. I believe the students and fans do as well and will make home field matter again, like it did in Schiano’s first go-around with the program. He’s got almost everyone back from last season, including all of the starters on offense. Temple has a new transfer QB and five starters back on both sides of the ball from a team that went 1-6 and lost by an average score of 37-19. Experience and depth matter most here. Take Rutgers to cover.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
41,141
NCAAF Sharp Action

Noon ET: Penn State at Wisconsin
This Big Ten showdown between Top 25 teams is the most heavily bet game of the early slate. Penn State enters ranked 19th in the country and Wisconsin 12th. This line opened with Wisconsin listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public sees two ranked teams and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite the ticket count split down the middle, we've seen Wisconsin move from -4.5 to -5.5. This signals respected wiseguy action in favor of the Badgers at home. Historically, chalk has been a smart bet between two ranked teams, with the favorite covering roughly 55% of the time over the past decade. Pros have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 51 to 49.
 
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