Matt Severance
LSU @ UCLA | 09/04 | 8:30 PM EDT
LSU -2.5
ANALYSIS: Glad we waited on this one as it has fallen from LSU -3.5 to -2.5. I get it as UCLA did look good last week in routing a solid Hawaii team and the Tigers had to relocate to Houston this week due to Hurricane Ida. I would probably take the Bruins on the first-half line, but then the superior talent wins out. There will also be a ton of LSU fans there for what that's worth. Believe it or not, this is only the Tigers' second all-time game in California and first at the Rose Bowl. They are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 on the road. UCLA is 1-9 ATS in its past 10 after a win of at least 20 points.
C. MICHIGAN @ MISSOURI | 09/04 | 4:00 PM EDT
MISSOURI -14
ANALYSIS: Central Michigan will be without three important people Saturday in head coach Jim McElwain (appendicitis), first-team All-MAC safety Willie Reid (off the field issue) and running back Kobe Lewis (injury; 574 yards, seven total TDs last year). Missouri appears on the rise under Coach Eli Drinkwitz and QB Connor Bazelak, who earned SEC Co-Freshman of the Year honors a year ago. He's one of eight starters back on offense and the defense brings back eight plus three transfers who have combined for 70 career starts elsewhere. That group is led by former Rice linebacker Blaze Alldredge, who was a two-time C-USA first team selection. I would do an alternate line of Mizzou -13.5 but I don't think this spread will drop that far otherwise.
MARSHALL @ NAVY | 09/04 | 3:30 PM EDT
MARSHALL -2.5
ANALYSIS: Not sure I would go as far as Micah Roberts in saying that this is the biggest Week 1 mistake on the board spread-wise, but I do agree the Thundering Herd should be favored a bit more so let's get this while it's under 3. They were spectacular against the run last year and bring nearly everyone back on that side of the ball -- plus add a few transfers. Getting essentially all offseason to prepare for that one-dimensional Navy rush attack is a huge plus as opposed to having to do so in a week during a season. Marshall also has a pretty good QB in Grant Wells, who in 2020 was the first Conference USA quarterback in history to early first team all-league honors. The Middies are 1-4 in their past five as dogs.
STANFORD @ KANSAS ST. | 09/04 | 12:00 PM EDT
KANSAS ST. -2.5
ANALYSIS: Neutral-site game from Dallas, with K-State serving the home team and should also have the major fan advantage. When you don't have one clear starting QB, that is usually a problem. Stanford doesn't as David Shaw said both Jack West and Tanner McKee will play against Kansas State. They have combined to attempt just 63 NCAA passes. KSU brings back one of the most experienced QBs in the nation in super senior Skylar Thompson, who has 30 starts. Stanford also has injury issues regarding top wideout Michael Wilson and defensive backs Jonathan McGill and Salim Turner-Muhammad. The early start time also could be a factor for the West Coast Cardinal.
TEXAS TECH @ HOUSTON | 09/04 | 7:00 PM EDT
TEXAS TECH -1.5
ANALYSIS: It's a big year for Texas Tech coach Matt Wells as he is just 8-14 in his two seasons in Lubbock. The Red Raiders landed one of the top transfer QBs on the market this offseason in former Oregon starter Tyler Shough, a potential 2022 NFL first-round pick. Wells also upgraded at offensive coordinator by hiring Sonny Cumbie away from TCU. Cumbie is a former Texas Tech quarterback and assistant. The defense has nine starters back. Houston is a solid team, but the Red Raiders should be able to win by at least a field goal in the Texas Kickoff. The Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their past four as underdogs.
NOTRE DAME @ FLORIDA ST. | 09/05 | 7:30 PM EDT
FLORIDA ST. +8
ANALYSIS: OK, well I have to respond to Micah Roberts -- who, let's be clear, probably knows more about odds than I ever will. Completely disagree here. The Noles are gonna be scary good with McKenzie Milton, and the Irish have among the fewest returning starters in college football. New QB Jack Coan lost his job at Wisconsin. Not saying FSU will win but .. yeah. I'll happily take the points. Eighteen of the past 19 years an AP Top 10 wasn't ranked at end. If you watched Early Edge recently, I believe that's the Irish. Also believe Brian Kelly will be in the NFL after this year.
