Service Plays - Saturday 9/4/21

[Bettor Days]

Dave Cokin:

UTSA +6.5
BYU -11.5
Marshall -3

 

[Bettor Days]

Barrett Sallee

LSU @ UCLA | 09/04 | 8:30 PM EDT
LSU -3.5
ANALYSIS: Tigers coach Ed Orgeron learned from his 2020 mistakes by hiring coordinators who will run similar systems to the ones who helped them win the 2019 national title. UCLA's defense won't be able to get pressure on quarterback Max Johnson due to an experienced LSU offensive line, and Johnson -- along with the help of star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte -- will pick it apart. LSU is a legitimate threat to win the national title, and that will start in the Rose Bowl with an emphatic win over the Bruins.

 

[Bettor Days]

Matt Severance

ALABAMA @ MIAMI (FLA.) | 09/04 | 3:30 PM EDT
MIAMI (FLA.) +19
ANALYSIS: I'm a tad biased as a Canes fan, but this line feels quite a bit too high. I realize Alabama always wins these Kickoff Games in blowouts and I'm not saying Miami wins -- although I don't think it's impossible. In terms of returning experience/starters, UM is among the national leaders and Alabama near the bottom. Nick Saban lost a TON of talent off last year's championship team. Sure, he simply reloads with five-stars, but it might take a few games to get going. I'll be stunned if the Tide cover this number. Wish I had gotten it when it was 20.

 

[Bettor Days]

Micah Roberts

BYU @ ARIZONA | 09/04 | 10:30 PM EDT
BYU -11.5
ANALYSIS: Much respect to Jedd Fisch for doing his best in Tucson during the offseason, taking on his first head-coaching job following a winless 2020 for the Wildcats. He’s got former Arizona greats on the coaching staff, Tedy Bruschi as an advisor and Rob Gronkowski promoting Arizona pride, but the talent and experience isn’t there. The three-way battle for QB has all the candidates failing so far. BYU has a huge following in Las Vegas, so it will be like a home game. Rise and shout, the Cougars are out. BYU covers.

GEORGIA @ CLEMSON | 09/04 | 7:30 PM EDT
CLEMSON -3.5
ANALYSIS: This is a huge game for Georgia and it doesn’t do well in these spots against better teams. Clemson certainly is better, with more experience on both sides of the ball. The spread caught me off-guard because I expected to be laying at least seven points. Is the game in Athens? Nope, Charlotte. Tigers sophomore QB D.J. Uiagalelei has made only two starts, but he was unstoppable in both. Lay the cheap number with Clemson.

 

[Wagerallsports]

WUnderdog
CFB

Navy +3 vs marshall

 

[Wagerallsports]

Jason Sharpe

E UTSA +5.5
C Kansas St -3
C Central Mich +14.5

 

[Bettor Days]

Doc Sports

G nevada+3
D over-58-texas
D wisconsin-5.5
C navy+2.5

 

[Wagerallsports]

portsLine Projection Model

ARMY at GAST | 09/04 | 12:00 PM EST

Against The Spread
Pick: ARMY +2
ARMY covers in 60 percent of simulations

Over-Under
Pick: Under 49.5
The Under hits in 69 percent of simulations

Projected Final Score: ARMY 23 GAST 19


RICE at ARK | 09/04 | 02:00 PM EST

Against The Spread
Pick: RICE +19.5
RICE covers in 64 percent of simulations

Over-Under
Pick: Under 50
The Under hits in 61 percent of simulations

Projected Final Score: ARK 30 RICE 16

 

[Bettor Days]

Kyle Akins

SYRACUSE @ OHIO | 09/04 | 7:00 PM EDT
SYRACUSE -1
ANALYSIS: This Syracuse squad really missed not having traditional non-conference play last season and will be locked in on getting this game right against a MAC school that got very little experience in 2020. Syracuse was favored a single time in 2020. FBS teams that are favored in their season opener after having been favored two or fewer times last season are 123-93-6 ATS. The times in which the Orange have been favored recently have gone quite well. Syracuse is 5-1-1 ATS since November 2018 as a favorite.

 

[Bettor Days]

Martin Green

FIFA World Cup European Qualifying picks.

World Cup qualifying resumes in Europe on Saturday and there are some intriguing games to look out for:

Serbia vs. Luxembourg (Noon ET)

Serbia -1.5 (-150)

Superstar strikers Dusan Vlahovic and Luka Jovic were both on target as Serbia eased to a 4-0 friendly victory over a strong Qatar team in midweek. That duo should tear Luxembourg apart on Saturday. Manager Dragan Stojkovic could decide to leave one of them on the bench in favor of the more physical Aleksandr Mitrovic, but either way, Serbia will have a lot of firepower. With the supremely talented Sergej Milinkovic-Savic pulling the strings in midfield, Serbia should overwhelm Luxembourg. Stojkovic cannot afford to take Luxembourg lightly, as it has already beaten Ireland and Azerbaijan in this qualifying campaign, but Serbia has better players in every department, and it should win this game.

Ireland vs. Azerbaijan (Noon ET)

Ireland to win and 2 or more goals in match (+105)

The Republic of Ireland was desperately unlucky to lose to Portugal on Wednesday. It was 1-0 up with just a minute left on the clock after John Egan's header, but Cristiano Ronaldo equalized and then fired in the winner deep into injury time. The players will naturally be disappointed by the nature of their defeat, but they deserve credit for their battling performance, and they should bounce back by beating Azerbaijan on Saturday. Azerbaijan suffered a 2-1 defeat to Luxembourg on Wednesday, leaving it bottom of the group with zero points. Ireland has also lost all three games so far, but this represents a great opportunity to return to winning ways.

Latvia vs. Norway (Noon ET)

Norway -1.5 at (-118)

Superstar striker Erling Haaland will lead the charge as Norway bids to pick up three points in Latvia on Saturday. The Borussia Dortmund forward scored and hit the post as Norway held the Netherlands to an impressive 1-1 draw in midweek. Group G is now looking extremely tight, with Turkey on eight points and the Netherlands, Montenegro and Norway all on seven. It is imperative that Norway beats Latvia as it bids to qualify for next year's World Cup. Haaland is the most exciting young talent in world soccer right now, but the supporting cast is also reasonably strong. Captain Martin Odegaard recently moved from Real Madrid to Arsenal for around $42 million, while Southampton's Mohamed Elyounoussi and Jens Petter Hauge of Eintracht Frankfurt are decent players. Norway should ultimately have too much firepower for Latvia in this game.

Israel vs. Austria (2:45 p.m. ET)

Both teams to score (-125)

These teams sit level on seven points apiece in Group F. Denmark leads the way with 12 points, so these two will probably scrap it out for second place, making this a crucial game in Haifa. Israel should be full of confidence after thrashing the Faroe Islands 4-0 on Wednesday. PSV striker Eran Zahavi fired in a hat trick, and he will be dangerous against Austria this weekend. However, Austria is the favorite and deservedly so. It has excellent players like David Alaba, Marko Arnautovic and Christoph Baumgartner in its ranks, and it should be able to cause plenty of problems for the Israeli defense in this game.

 

[Bettor Days]

Bryan Leonard

D% - UTSA +5
D% - Rutgers -14.5
D% - Stanford +3

 

[Wagerallsports]

Robert Ferringo

College Football
Gu Georgia +3
Bu u51 Georgia / Clemson
Au Kansas St -3
Du W Virginia -3
Du Iowa -3.5
Bu Syracuse -1
Cu LSU -2.5
Cu Arizona +12.5
Au o54 Arizona / BYU

 

[Wagerallsports]

Teddy Covers

C% Michigan State +4 (-110)

 

[Bettor Days]

Kyle Anthony UFC:

C% Jourdain -180
C% Zawada +125
B% McCann -105
C% Brunson +160
D% Paddy Pimblett -130

 

[Bettor Days]

Scott Spreitzer

G* BYU -12.5
C* Marshall -2.5
C* KN St -3

 

[Wagerallsports]

Vernon Croy

E* Miami FL +19.5

 

[Bettor Days]

Tokyo Brandon

Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants
Game: Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants
Date/Time: Sep 3 2021 2:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: B%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-105)
Carpenter has allowed one run in his last 3 starts and Franco is not great but this is Hanwha's first time seeing him and Hanwha has the worst lineup in the league. All signs point to the under. Even the first half team totals add up to 4 not 5. For this number the 1st5 Under 5 is a nice bet for 2%.

(304631) KT Wiz Suwon at (304632) LG Twins
Game: (304631) KT Wiz Suwon at (304632) LG Twins
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 4:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: C%
Play: KT Wiz Suwon -135
Ko is a great young pitcher and although has has a shaky start here and there, he is backed by a great bullpen and a great lineup. Son is not quite up to this level with only three starts in his career, I think he will falter a bit vs this power lineup. KT has the lineup, bullpen and SP advantage and should be able to hold it down here.

(304633) Doosan Bears at (304634) Samsung Lions
Game: (304633) Doosan Bears at (304634) Samsung Lions
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 4:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: A%
Play: Doosan Bears +1.5 (-125)
Doosan SP Gwak Been was an easy fade early in the season but lately has put together some great starts. Mike Montgomery, on the other hand, has been getting tagged recently after a great start. These are two teams going in opposite direction and Doosan has the better bullpen. It might be an ugly start but in the end the bullpen should have Doosan in position to at least tie. Take them with the +1.5.

(304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Game: (304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: C%
Play: Total Over 3.5 (-105)
I am keeping this a 3% play because Rakuten is at home and may lose one inning of at bats. My numbers have Rakuten scoring 4.85 here so 3.5 is a play. Imai for Seibu is very spotty and is backed by a terrible bullpen. Rakuten can score 4 in any inning with sluggers like Asamura and Okajima and should be able to get over the 3.5 hurdle today.

(304139) Hiroshima Carp at (304140) Yakult Swallows
Game: (304139) Hiroshima Carp at (304140) Yakult Swallows
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Play Rating: C%
Play: Yakult Swallows -128
My numbers have Yakult a 58% chance to win which is -145. Take them anything 145 or better. Cy Sneed was a disaster to start his Japan campaign but lately he has allowed only 4 runs in 3 starts and is looking good. Takahashi for the Carp has allowed 12 run in his last three starts. Yakult has the SP, lineup and bullpen advantages here so take them to win on the money line.

(304133) Yokohama BayStars at (304134) Chunichi Dragons
Game: (304133) Yokohama BayStars at (304134) Chunichi Dragons
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: A%
Play: 1H Total Under 3.0 (-110)
This is strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness which usually ends in a stuck in the mud game. Yanagi has allowed 2 runs his last three starts and Romero has not been quite as sharp but he faces the worst lineup in the game. 3 is low but I like it for a small 1% play.

(304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Game: (304137) Seibu Lions at (304138) Rakuten Gold. Eagles
Date/Time: Sep 4 2021 1:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: C%
Play: Rakuten Gold. Eagles -125
This is available anywhere from 120 to 140 I got it for 125 at Pinnacle. Kishi hit a bump in the road last game but take that start away and he has been great. His FIP also shows that was an outlier. Imai is good and bad but vs Rakuten he has a 4.50 ERA and they should be able to get to him and get to that terrible bullpen. Take Rakuten on the money line. They are 10-4 vs Seibu as well this season.

 

[Wagerallsports]

H&H Sports
Early Update

CFB
Triple Dime - Oklahoma -31.5
Dime - Wisconsin/Penn State Over 49
Dime - Stanford/Kansas State Under 54

 

[Bettor Days]

H&H Sports
Early Update

CFB
Triple Dime - Oklahoma -31.5
Dime - Wisconsin/Penn State Over 49
Dime - Stanford/Kansas State Under 54

 

[Wagerallsports]

Tom Stryker

NCAA ELITE INFO DATABASE INVESTMENT
Louisiana Tech

NCAA NON-CONFERENCE WAGER OF THE WEEK
Ga. Tech

NCAA SYSTEM PLAY OF THE WEEK
UTSA

NCAA HIGH ROLLER GAME OF THE MONTH
Nevada