Nicholls St. +150

[JDS]

Nicholls St. is 20-4 last 24 home games at David R. Stopher Gym. They are facing Texas A&M CC a team with ATS winning wet dreams 9 out of their last 10. At some point these teams on a roll ATS wise the oddsmakers will stretch that number at each win, although on a side note regarding another team I would say oddsmakers have not done a good job adjusting to the Minnesota Gophers as they are an incredible 20-3 ATS this year.

I mention these two teams because they are the top 2 a combined 35-6 ATS. Well I'm fading Texas A&M CC because this line is OFF by 3.5 points as I think this game should be listed a PK, so I will take +150 price and try to hit a blackjack here with Nicholls St. +150. Sportsline model is a model I respect and follow & IT agrees with my prediction I will post a screenshot below.

Take Nicholls St. on the ML and good luck if you tail

 

[JDS]

 

[JDS]

This is a BMR best bet.

2/12
1. JDS 146-106-0 +52.36 Units
NCAAB Nicholls +150
Bovada

 

[KVB]

Excellent price here. Where'd you pick it up, if I may ask?

 

[BigJay]

Nicholls St. is 20-4 last 24 home games at David R. Stopher Gym. They are facing Texas A&M CC a team with ATS winning wet dreams 9 out of their last 10. At some point these teams on a roll ATS wise the oddsmakers will stretch that number at each win, although on a side note regarding another team I would say oddsmakers have not done a good job adjusting to the Minnesota Gophers as they are an incredible 20-3 ATS this year.

I mention these two teams because they are the top 2 a combined 35-6 ATS. Well I'm fading Texas A&M CC because this line is OFF by 3.5 points as I think this game should be listed a PK, so I will take +150 price and try to hit a blackjack here with Nicholls St. +150. Sportsline model is a model I respect and follow & IT agrees with my prediction I will post a screenshot below.

Take Nicholls St. on the ML and good luck if you tail

Nickels, nickels, nickels. What a beautiful sound.

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[BigJay]

Excellent price here. Where'd you pick it up, if I may ask?

Jerky doesn’t beat the number. He sets it

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Good lucky, Jerky.

 

[JDS]

Excellent price here. Where'd you pick it up, if I may ask?

Bovada

 

[JDS]

Jerky doesn’t beat the number. He sets it

"Fa get about it"

 

[JDS]

Good lucky, Jerky.

Thanks stud, you got any cbb for tonight ?

 

[KVB]

By the way Jerky, love the play.

I got Nichols St. +142 and +140

I think there will be an edge there, even at that price.

The stacking percentages forecast has Nicholls St. winning with 75 points to Tex A&M CC's 72 points.

The non predictive public gauge has Nicholls state winning 72-71.

Of note, the BMR Predictor has Tex A&M CC winning 72-69.

I see that the stacking percentages forecast is identical to the projection @JDS posted above that projection is higher in the Total than the public gauge or BMR's prediction, which is right on the current Total.

The Total has moved towards the forecast and the public gauge while the spread has slightly moved away from the forecast with some fluctuation while the moneline has fluctuated both ways.

When it comes to the spread and moneyline, there hasn't been much noted overall movement here but i can identify what I would consider sharper trades in the market on Tex A&M CC, contrary to our assessments.

Also of market note is the the pressure seems to be mitigating on that Tex A&M CC spread with Nicholls money but, oddly, we have a situation where Tex A&M CC moneyline is not being mitigated.

This condition, I believe, is contributing to the overall rise in spread to -3 and above. Because the moneyline is being hit on the favorite, the spread is being pressured to rise in accordance, overwhleming the pressure of the Nicholls spread money.

I believe, like Jerky, that there is an inefficiency here at that line should be closer, contrary to the BMR model.

The wrong team is favored in our opinion.

Let's see how this trades moving forward as the line could move away from us here.

Good Luck.

 

[KVB]

Bovada

Excellent trading here.

I couldn't get in at any 150's and that's why I have wierd numbers, like +142. I took what I could get.

Not done here, the market knows it will hit again at +140, so look where they sit.

Let's see how this trades. Still trying to fill a position if it gets there.

 

[JDS]

By the way Jerky, love the play.

I got Nichols St. +142 and +140

I think there will be an edge there, even at that price.

The stacking percentages forecast has Nicholls St. winning with 75 points to Tex A&M CC's 72 points.

The non predictive public gauge has Nicholls state winning 72-71.

Of note, the BMR Predictor has Tex A&M CC winning 72-69.

I see that the stacking percentages forecast is identical to the projection @JDS posted above that projection is higher in the Total than the public gauge or BMR's prediction, which is right on the current Total.

The Total has moved towards the forecast and the public gauge while the spread has slightly moved away from the forecast with some fluctuation while the moneline has fluctuated both ways.

When it comes to the spread and moneyline, there hasn't been much noted overall movement here but i can identify what I would consider sharper trades in the market on Tex A&M CC, contrary to our assessments.

Also of market note is the the pressure seems to be mitigating on that Tex A&M CC spread with Nicholls money but, oddly, we have a situation where Tex A&M CC moneyline is not being mitigated.

This condition, I believe, is contributing to the overall rise in spread to -3 and above. Because the moneyline is being hit on the favorite, the spread is being pressured to rise in accordance, overwhleming the pressure of the Nicholls spread money.

I believe, like Jerky, that there is an inefficiency here at that line should be closer, contrary to the BMR model.

The wrong team is favored in our opinion.

Let's see how this trades moving forward as the line could move away from us here.

Good Luck.

Let's get another one together KVB, I always feel better when you chime in and we agree on a potential inefficiency.

 

[KingKolzig]

Justbet not offering this unreal

 

[JDS]

Justbet not offering this unreal

Click on extra games and it is listed there Kinger.

 

[KVB]

Not done here, the market knows it will hit again at +140, so look where they sit.

I could keep going about this game.

I realize this isn't a high volume game like Wake vs Duke or WV vs TCU, but a little example is showing up in how this trades.

The market is priced to keep taking that favorite on the moneyline, potential public money, while it limits the dog price. Not opening up.

@purplegrape @JDS @pete0 @billybobcoverz @k310 @613tunit and others...Look around 21:30 in this video. And let's watch how this game trades...

 

[KVB]

I could keep going about this game.

I realize this isn't a high volume game like Wake vs Duke or WV vs TCU, but a little example is showing up in how this trades.

The market is priced to keep taking that favorite on the moneyline, potential public money, while it limits the dog price. Not opening up.

@purplegrape @JDS @pete0 @billybobcoverz @k310 @613tunit and others...Look around 21:30 in this video. And let's watch how this game trades...

As I'm typing this post Pinny moves from -165/+135 to -166/+135.

Can you pick up what I'm putting down here?

 

[JDS]

I could keep going about this game.

I realize this isn't a high volume game like Wake vs Duke or WV vs TCU, but a little example is showing up in how this trades.

The market is priced to keep taking that favorite on the moneyline, potential public money, while it limits the dog price. Not opening up.

@purplegrape @JDS @pete0 @billybobcoverz @k310 @613tunit and others...Look around 21:30 in this video. And let's watch how this game trades...

KVB who is looking like the "skurred book" at the moment as you mention in the vid ?

 

[sharpsquare]

Well if JDS and KVB agree I am certainly going to follow along....

 

[KVB]

KVB who is looking like the "skurred book" at the moment as you mention in the vid ?

I should ask what you think.

But I think the entire market is looking like the "skurred book" out here. This is what I'm seeing. The hold across the market is very high.

It's high because to lower it, would invite us back onto the dog at +140.

I love it when we get examples that line up with the video. And this one shows the whole market with close to the same numbers I use in the vid, lol.

Let's see how it trades, you never know for sure until that last hour and then last 15 minutes of trading.