NBA player props

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Paul George Over 26.5 Points (-111)​

The Los Angeles Clippers will take on the Houston Rockets already for the third time in this young season tonight. That is probably music to the ears of Clippers star Paul George. During a home-and-home with the Rockets two weeks ago, George scored 35 and 28 points in those games. That began a run for George in which he has scored at least 27 points in five of his last seven games. He just missed in another game, finishing with 26 points.

It is not hard to see why George likes facing the Rockets. Houston ranks 27th in points allowed and 28th in field goal percentage defense. The Rockets are also 20th in 3-pointers allowed per game and 23rd in defending small forwards.

The Clippers have a deep roster, and you never know what lineup Ty Lue will deploy on a night-to-night basis, but that does not apply to Paul George. He is averaging 35.7 minutes, giving him to plenty of opportunities to get shots up. He is averaging 18.9 field goal attempts per game this season and 23 shots in two meetings against Houston. George is coming off a poor 5-for-21 performance against the Brooklyn Nets. Stars rarely have two bad games in a row, and I expect George to bounce back Houston

 

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Jaden Ivey Over 27.5 PRA (-118)​

21 points / 4 rebounds/ 8 assists

WINNER

 

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Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 Rebounds (-140)​

10 rebounds = WINNER

 

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Paul George Over 26.5 Points (-111)​

22 points = loser

12-6 YTD

 

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NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Bet Deandre Ayton and Zach LaVine​

Pacers vs.​

Hornets​

Mason Plumlee, Over 3.5 Assists (-105)​

Getting point guard LaMelo Ball back in the lineup has helped this Hornets offense immensely. They actually won their last game against the Magic after losing eight straight. The Hornets are 2.5-point favorites tonight in a matchup that features the second-highest total on this 10-game slate at 233 points.

There are two 3-pointers made props that are standing out in our model from the Hornets tonight. P.J. Washington and Kelly Oubre Jr. are projected for well over their 3-point props as the Pacers are allowing opponents to shoot 39.3% from behind the arc. Both of their props are coming in with a lot of juice.

Instead of taking either of those two props, we will take Mason Plumlee’s over 3.5 assists. If Washington and Oubre Jr. are draining shots from the perimeter, Plumlee will benefit as he has four or more assists in four of his last five games and in 10 of his last 15 games. Our model has him projected for 4.9 assists tonight.

Having Ball back in the lineup may take away assists from Plumlee, but Gordon Hayward, who averages 4.1 per game, is out tonight. The Pacers rank 25th in Defensive Rating and third in Pace this season, so Plumlee will have plenty of opportunities to get over this prop as the Hornets light up the scoreboard.

 

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Bulls vs.​

Pelicans​

Zach LaVine, Under 4.5 Assists (-150)​

The Chicago Bulls have lost four of their last five games as they play an island road game against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. They are three-point underdogs implied for only 111 points. With a 2-4 road record, they are in a tough spot against the Pelicans, who rank eighth in Defensive Rating this year.

Zach LaVine is the player we are targeting tonight with his under 4.5 assists prop. Through his 10 games played this season, LaVine is averaging only 4.1 assists per game, which is the lowest he has averaged since playing a full season with the Bulls. He has gone under this prop line in six of his 10 games (60%).

As a team, the Bulls rank 18th in total assists, averaging only 24.2 per game. They have six players on their team averaging between 2.9 and 4.2 assists a night. LaVine and DeMar DeRozan have the ball all the time, but both are also shooting a ton. LaVine leads the team with 17.1 field goal attempts per game.

Our model has LaVine projected for only 2.9 assists tonight, which is well below this prop line. With only 111 implied points, there won’t be a lot of opportunities for LaVine to rack up assists. He is averaging 7.6 potential assists per game this season, which is fewer than DeRozan and not high at all.

 

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Warriors vs.​

Suns​

Deandre Ayton, Over 15.5 Points (-122)​

t was a disappointing road trip for the Phoenix Suns, who lost three of their four games. They return home for one game before going back on the road. The Suns are 6-1 at home this season as they are hosting the Golden State Warriors on ESPN with an even spread despite the Warriors’ 0-7 road record.

Chris Paul continues to be questionable for the Suns as he has missed three straight games with an injury. Not only is he questionable, but Cameron Johnson and Jae Crowder remain out. If Paul sits, that will open up more usage for the rest of the Suns players, specifically center Deandre Ayton.

The Warriors defense is not what it used to be, and this season is a great example of that. They rank 25th in Defensive Rating and lead the league in Pace. The Warriors also have allowed 117.5 points per game and have the third-worst Rebounding Percentage. Ayton will dominate the paint tonight.

Our model has Ayton projected for 20.4 points. With this game being projected to be competitive, Ayton will see 30+ minutes and a ton of opportunities to get over this prop line as the Warriors are allowing 22.5 points per game on put-backs alone. I love this spot for Ayton to get 16 or more points.

 

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Mason Plumlee, Over 3.5 Assists (-105)​

Lost by the hook 3 assist
Bastard

 

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Zach LaVine, Under 4.5 Assists (-150)​

A bit of regression going on here another loser. Freakin 5 assists

 

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Deandre Ayton, Over 15.5 Points (-122)​

Cheese and rice another loser and they just took him out of the game with two minutes and change. Was stuck on 14 whole third quarter.

Not a good day all around l might have to go get a seasonal job at See’s Candy packing fudge.

12-9 YTD

0-3 really shanks that record

 

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NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Back De’Aaron Fox and Anfernee Simons on Thursday (November 17)​

Anfernee Simons, Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+110)​

The Nets have struggled to defend the 3-point line so far this season. In fact, the Nets rank 28th in opponent 3-point percentage (38%) and are allowing opponents to knock down 13.5 three-point shots per game, which ranks 27th.

Tonight the Nets will be challenged with defending Anfernee Simons, who is a lethal 3-point marksman shooting 37.6% from beyond the arc. But more so, Simons is getting up the attempts per game from the 3-point line. He is averaging 10.4 attempts per game and knocking down an average of 3.7 per game.

Simons has been hot from beyond the arc in his six November games as he has knocked four or more 3-point shots five times. Furthermore, Simons has knocked down at least five 3-point shots in three straight games for the Blazers. Lastly, Simons has faced two teams, the Miami Heat and Memphis Grizzlies, that also rank near the bottom of the league in 3-point defense and knocked down four 3-pointers in each of those games.

 

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De’Aaron Fox, Over 6.5 Assists (-130)​

De’Aaron Fox is off to an incredible start to the season as he has improved his jumpshot and become the focal point of the Kings offense. One underrated part of Fox’s game has been his ability to find his teammates and rack up the assists, and he should have plenty of opportunities to stuff the stat sheet tonight against the Spurs’ poor defense.

Thus far this season, Fox is averaging 6.1 assists per game, and he has been incredible dishing the ball in the month of November. In fact, Fox has dished seven or more assists in four straight games. This sets up to be a favorable matchup for him against a Spurs defense that allows a league-worst 27.7 assists per game this season.

Fox has accumulated so many assists thanks in large part to the pick-and-roll game with Domantas Sabonis and the shooters he has around him, such as Kevin Huerter, who is shooting 52.6% from 3-point land. Expect the Kings to find success tonight on offense against this Spurs defense and Fox to have a big game with at least seven assists

 

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Anfernee Simons, Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made (+110)​

Was 4-9 from behind the line
WINNER

 

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De’Aaron Fox, Over 6.5 Assists (-130)​

Ended the night with 8 assists and 28 points the kid has game.

WINNER

THIS GUY IS BACK ON TRACK


14-9 YTD

 

[Bubbles]

great winnings big.

 

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Bucks vs. 76ers NBA Player Prop: Giannis Antetokounmpo Should Rebound in Philly (November 18)​

Giannis Antetokounmpo, 11.5 Rebounds​

Amid the 11-game NBA slate tonight is a prime Eastern Conference matchup between the 76ers and Bucks. These two teams met in October, with the Bucks squeaking out a two-point victory.

In what figures to be another close game, I’m honing in on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s rebounding prop. Antetokounmpo pulled down 13 boards in that game, and is averaging 11.8 on the season. He’s pulled down at least 12 rebounds in eight of his 11 games this season.

While rebound props can be a bit more variable, this is a perfect matchup for the two-time MVP to clean the glass. Dating back to the 2018-19 campaign, Antetokounmpo has eclipsed this line in nine of his last 10 matchups against Joel Embiid and the 76ers.

To state the obvious, Embiid is a really tough matchup. Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis and Serge Ibaka figure to attempt to check the 76ers big man, whose insane 37% Usage Rate ranks second to only Luka Doncic. With Embiid being involved in so much of the 76ers offense, his primary defenders typically aren’t able to crash the boards.

Antetokounmpo figures to guard PJ Tucker or Tobias Harris — both matchups would allow him to help with Embiid in the paint and rebound. The 76ers allow the second most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards as is, which should spell a big day for Antetokounmpo.

I have the Greek Freak projected with 13 rebounds tonight and I would bet the 11.5 up to -120.

Pick: Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 (+110)​

 

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Giannis Antetokounmpo, 11.5 Rebounds​

Just snagged his 13th rebound with 6 minutes to go in game.

WINNER

25-9 YTD

 

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Jazz vs.​

Trail Blazers​

Jusuf Nurkic, Under 27.5 PTS + REB + AST (-122)​

The Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz have the best two records in the Western Conference. What a bizarre start to this season. The Trail Blazers are small home favorites in their last home game before a four-game road trip. We will target another under prop with Jusuf Nurkic who is back from an injury.

In his last two games since returning from injury 13 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 0.5 assists while playing only 20 minutes per game. The lack of playing time is the major concern as Nurkic may not fully be healthy yet. The Jazz also don’t have a true big, so Nurkic could just as easily be played off the floor tonight.

Through 12 games this season, Nurkic is averaging 25.6 points, rebounds, and assists per game. That is nearly two stats per game below this prop line and that doesn’t account for the fact how little production Nurkic has provided over his last two games. This is one of the best player props on the board.

The Trail Blazers are implied for a pretty high 115.25 points, but a majority of their production comes from Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons who are both healthy for tonight’s game. This game has a 226.5 point total, but there is a lot of concern around Nurkic’s playing time and production since his injury.

 

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WINNER

25-9 YTD

Should read 15-9 YTD

 

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Jusuf Nurkic, Under 27.5 PTS + REB + AST (-122)​

Winner landed on 27
16-9 YTD