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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 27.5 Points (-115)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was due for an off night and that came on Saturday night against the Milwaukee Bucks where he scored 18 points on 7-of-16 shooting from the field. However, SGA has been on a scoring tear to begin this season.He is averaging 30.5 points per game, has scored at least 28 points in six of eight games and 30 points in five of those eight games this season. As the focal point of the OKC offense, the volume is there for Gilgeous-Alexander as well. He is averaging 21.3 field goal attempts per game, but he is shooting 53.5% from the field.
For a player that likes to operate in the mid range area and on drives to the basket, the Bucks were a difficult matchup for him. Milwaukee is tied for second in the league in points allowed in the paint per game and first in field goal percentage. Detroit represents an excellent bounce back spot for him.
The Pistons are 27th in field goal allowed, 28th in points allowed, and 30th in defending point guards. This season, the Pistons have already given up big scoring nights to Tyrese Hailburton, Stephen Curry, Trae Young, and Jrue Holiday.
Like the Thunder, the Pistons are a rebuilding team. The oddmakers (and myself) expect a tight battle with the Pistons opening as 1.5 point favorites at home. If the tight battle comes to fruition, SGA will play 30+ minutes, which will give him every opportunity to go over this line.
Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 Assists (-122)
Jalen Brunson was the Knicks’ big free agent acquisition this offseason and thus far the early returns have been excellent. He ranks 12th in the league with 7.2 assists per game against just 1.6 turnovers. He has orchestrated this offense so well that his line has moved from 5.5 at the start of the season to 6.5 assists now. However, even at 6.5, it is still worth a play.
Brunson has finished with seven assists in five of his first nine games. In two other games, he finished with six assists. On Monday night, he will face a Minnesota Timberwolves that is last in the league in assists allowed and is 28th in defending point guards.
Additionally, center Rudy Gobert will be out once again as he remains in Health and Safety Protocols. That means the paint will be accessible for the Knicks big men in the pick-and-roll or via lobs from Brunson.
Brunson ranks 10th in the league with 59.2 passes made per game and he averages 11.9 potential assists as well. The potential is there for Brunson to pile up the assists in what should be a fast paced game.
De’Aaron Fox Over 4.5 Rebounds (-130)
For his career, De’Aaron Fox is averaging 3.6 rebounds per game with a career-high of 3.9 rebounds last season. He is on pace to shatter that mark with the start he is off to this season. Fox is averaging 5.9 rebounds per game so this season with a high mark of 13 rebounds against the Miami Heat.
He has recorded five rebounds in six of seven games played this season. In the one game he missed, he played just nine minutes against the Charlotte Hornets after leaving the game with a knee injury.
Fox is essentially averaging six rebounds per game this season and with his line, he would just need to collect five. I like his chances against a Golden State Warriors team that is 19th in rebounds allowed.
In the last meeting against Golden State on Oct. 23, he had five rebounds in 36 minutes. The Warriors also shot 51.7% from the field that night. The Warriors attempt a lot of threes and the misses provide long rebound opportunities for Fox.
With a little shooting regression from the Warriors, he could have a bigger night on the boards.
NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Back Tyrese Maxey, Kristaps Porzingis (Thursday, November 10)
Kristaps Porzingis
Over 20.5 Points (-110)
Kristaps Porzingis is healthy and playing well this season. He is averaging 19.2 points per game with a True Shooting Percentage of 59.4% from the field. Tonight, the Wizards will welcome his former team to town, the Dallas Mavericks. Additionally, the Mavericks are struggling to defend opposing big men this season.
According to NBA.com/advancedstats, the Mavericks are allowing opposing big men to shoot well above 55% from the field. Furthermore, can we assume that Porzingis will have an extra bounce in his step tonight against his former team?
Despite only facing his former team once as a Wizard, Porzingis has played the Mavericks five times in his career and is averaging 23.6 points per game. He has also gone over this projection in four of those five games, and I expect a big game tonight from him scoring the ball.
Tyrese Maxey
Over 22.5 Points (-125)
Tyrese Maxey has been one of the bright spots for the Philadelphia 76ers this season. He is averaging 23.6 points per game and has been one of the most consistent players for them thus far.
Furthermore, the Sixers are missing their All-Star point guard James Harden due to a foot injury for at least a month. Maxey has stepped up in big ways scoring the basketball for the Sixers in the absence of their superstars. Thus far this season, Maxey has a 57.8% True Shooting Percentage from the field and has gone over this projection in five out of the last seven games for the Sixers.
With the absence of Harden, Maxey’s shot volume has increased along with his playing time. The Sixers are more rested than the Atlanta Hawks, and I expect a big night from Maxey tonight.
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies NBA Player Prop: Big Scoring Night Ahead for Desmond Bane? (November 11)
Desmond Bane, 22.5 Points
When Ja Morant accepted his win for Most Improved Player last season, he gifted the trophy to his teammate, Desmond Bane, who finished fifth in the voting himself. Many thought that Bane should have won the award (Morant himself included).
Well, in his third NBA season, Bane might be in position again to compete for the award. The sharpshooting guard is averaging 24.7 pointsper game, up from the 18.2 he averaged last season. He’s garnering more Usage (26.3% versus 22.6% last season) and shot volume (3.5 more field goal attempts and 2.5 more free throw attempts per game) all while maintaining his stellar shooting percentages.
This has led to Bane eclipsing this point total in six of his past eight games. Over this stretch, he’s shooting the lights out, including a whopping 53% from long distance (on 8.4 attempts per game).
And tonight’s game sets up Bane for another opportunity for massive output. The Timberwolves are one of the best teams at defending the pick-and-roll, allowing ball-handlers the fourth fewest points per possession (0.76) on the fourth lowest field-goal percentage (37%). I expect Minnesota to blitz Morant into passing the ball.
This should leave Bane open on the Grizzlies’ secondary action. The T-Wolves are allowing the most points per game to spot-up shooters (34.6). And with Minnesota playing at the league’s second highest pace, this game should feature plenty of opportunities for Bane.
I’m riding the hot hand with the TCU product today. I have Bane projected at 26 points.
Pick: Bane Over 22.5 Points (-120.)
NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Bet Tyrese Maxey, Josh Hart and Alperen Sengun Saturday (November 12)
Hawks vs.
76ers
Tyrese Maxey, Under 5.5 Assists (-110)
Playing in a home-and-home series, the Hawks beat the 76ers Thursday 104-95. The 76ers will get a chance for revenge at home tonight as -3 favorites. With no James Harden commanding the offense, the 76ers look a bit different and have lost three of their last four.Harden was second to Joel Embiid in Usage Rate, so with Harden sidelined there is more usage to go around to the backcourt of Tyrese Maxey and De’Anthony Melton. Maxey has put up some huge scoring numbers this season, but has only gone over this assist proponce in his 12 games played.
The offseason addition of Dejounte Murrayhas really solidified the Hawks backcourt, especially on the defensive end of the court. Murray is tied for second in steals after leading the league last season. The Hawks also allow the fifth-fewest assists this season at 22.3 per game. Tough matchup for Maxey.
Our model has Maxey projected for only 4.3 assists tonight as the 76ers have a 112 implied total. In three games without Harden this season, Maxey is averaging 21.3 field goal attempts per game. He is a shoot-first point guard who will be clamped by one of the league’s best defensive guards in Murray.
Trail Blazersvs.
Mavericks
Josh Hart, Under 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-105)
What a start to the season for the Portland Trail Blazers. They are 4-1 on this six-game road trip as it will come to an end today against the Dallas Mavericks. Despite Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic not playing last game, they beat the Pelicans by double digit points. It is surprising, but this team is rolling lately,The Trail Blazers are 5.5-point road underdogs tonight with a very low 105.25 implied total. This game against the Mavericks is going to be played at a snail’s pace. With Luka Doncictaking things slow the Mavericks have played at the slowest Pace over the last two years, and the Trail Blazers rank 28th in Pace.
This Josh Hart prop is too high for Lillard back and most of the Trail Blazers healthy. Nurkic is questionable, but if he plays that will really hinder Hart’s rebounding upside. Through his first 12 games, Hart has gone under this prop line in eight games and is averaging 9.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game.
Our model has Hart projected for only 14.8 points and rebounds tonight. This slow pace is not going to provide many opportunities to capture statistics. Both teams also rank in the Top 10 for Defensive Rating. Take the under due to a healthy Trail Blazers team and this slow and tough game environment.
Rockets vs.
Pelicans
Alperen Sengun, Over 1.5 Steals + Blocks (-115)
To be expected, but it has been a tough start to the season for the Houston Rockets. They are tied with the Los Angeles Lakers for the worst record in the league at 2-10. The Rockets are double-digit road underdogs against the New Orleans Pelicans who have everyone, including Zion Williamson, back and healthy.Even though this game will likely be one-sided, the total is the highest on this six-game slate at 232 points. The Rockets love to play fast. They ranked second in Pace last season and are in the Top 10 again this year. The Pelicans have a great roster when healthy to push the pace and get their athletes in transition.
More possessions equals more opportunities for Alperen Sengun to pick up steals and blocks. The second-year pro is averaging 1.8 combined steals and blocks this season, but has averaged 3.5 in his last two games. The Pelicans play sloppy allowing the 11th-most steals and seventh-most blocks per game.
Sengun is projected for 2.6 steals and blocks tonight, which is well over this 1.5 prop line. In five of his last six games, Sengun is playing 29 or more minutes per game. The Rockets may get pummeled in this matchup, but with so many possessions projected in this game, Sengun can easily get over this prop line
NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Picks: Paul George, Jayson Tatum & Jaden Ivey Overs Have Value (Monday, November 14)
Jaden Ivey Over 27.5 PRA (-118)
Jaden Ivey has been as good as advertised since the Pistons made him the fifth overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft. The rookie guard is averaging 15.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. That amounts to 24.7 PRA, and yes, Ivey has only reached 28 PRA in five of 13 games this season. However, there are a few reasons I like this play.
For starters, Ivey has gone over this line in three of his past four games. He nearly cleared this line with just his scoring alone when he had 26 points against the Celtics. The Raptors are ninth in the NBA in scoring defense, but Ivey had 19 and 26 points in two games against the Celtics in the last week, so we know he can get it done against an elite defense.
Additionally, there are multiple ways for Ivey to get here without a big scoring night. He has had three games with double-digit rebounds, including two in his past four games. Ivey ranks 21st in rebounds among guards this season.
Furthermore, the Pistons remain without Cunningham as he misses his third straight game due to shin soreness. Cunningham’s absence not only opens up more shot attempts for Ivey, but it also opens up more playmaking opportunities for him as well–Ivey already has a nine-assist game this season. On Monday, he will face a Raptors team that gives up the third-most assists in the league, and specifically the most to shooting guards.
Ivey has already shown that he is capable of filling up the stat sheet early in his young career. I like his chances of doing so and going over this line in the process.
Jayson Tatum Over 7.5 Rebounds (-140)
When you think of Jayson Tatum, you probably think about his all-around offensive game–his ability to get to any spot on the floor, the stepback 3s and his big scoring nights. Tatum has scored 30 points in his last four games, including a 43-point outing against the Pistons on Saturday. However, one aspect of his game that is probably a bit underrated is his rebounding ability.
Tatum has averaged at least seven rebounds per game in each of the last four seasons. He averaged a career-high eight rebounds per game last season and is currently at 7.2 this season. He has pulled down at least eight rebounds in each of his last two games and in four of his past seven. That includes two games of 12 rebounds and 10 against the Pistons on Saturday.
Tatum will have an excellent opportunity to pull down a ton of rebounds on Monday night. He will face a Thunder team that allows the most rebounds and defensive rebounds in the league and ranks 25th offensive rebounds allowed. Oklahoma City also ranks 27th in rebounds allowed to small forwards.
One reason that the Thunder allow so many rebound opportunities is because they rank 23rd in the league in shooting percentage. Nonetheless, the Thunder lit up the floor on Sunday afternoon in New York, shooting 62.5% from the field and 54.8% from behind the arc.
However, OKC will be playing on the second end of a back-to-back on Monday. Perhaps OKC stays hot, but I am expecting shooting performance closer to its season averages. That will give Tatum ample opportunities to pull down eight rebounds.
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