Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Tanko]

Good spot to fade TB coming off 3 losses. I also like Boston’s starter today with his lively arm. Going with the home team here, this should be closer to -135.

Pick: Red Sox ML -115 v. Rays

Typo AC. TB coming off 3 wins. Hopefully, everyone knew what you meant.
I definitely agree with the play. GL

 

[Analytics Capper]

Typo AC. TB coming off 3 wins. Hopefully, everyone knew what you meant.
I definitely agree with the play. GL

Appreciate it man!

 

[Analytics Capper]

Chicago is coming off a tough loss in extra innings last night. The starter tonight has a great arm but has gotten unlucky with little run support. Solid but low spot.

Pick: White Sox ML -125 v. Twins

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[Analytics Capper]

Awesome bounce back spot for the Mets as they are coming off a disappointing loss last night to Reds, totaling zero runs on the board. With tonight's game total set at such a high number, I can see that number being reached because of the Mets' potent offense waking up. The pitching match up favors New York with Peterson starting tonight, while Ashcroft for Cincy only lasted 2 innings his last time out.

Pick: Mets ML -155 v. Reds

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[Analytics Capper]

Mike Minor should never be a favorite at this stage of career. He currently sports a 1-5 record with almost a 7 ERA. The Reds are an awful team and are coming off a disappointing loss in extras last night. The Pirates actually have some talent, but I'm playing the value here and the read suggest to me it's a Reds play.

Pick: Reds ML (-105) v. Pirates

 

[Analytics Capper]

Both teams are solid. Phillies have been really really good since the change at manager. With Philadelphia being the road team and favored tonight, I believe the books expect a great outing from Wheeler. I've backed Philly a lot in these marquee games, and they've come up really clutch in late innings. Let's hope for an easier win tonight!

Pick: Phillies ML (-125) v. Cardinals

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[Analytics Capper]

The Guardians are admist a horrible rut. They've lost 5 in a row and 3 of their last 10. Last night's game was tough, losing to the Royals by a run. Thankfully for them today, they have a distinct pitching advantage since KC is trotting out Heasley who has only last 9 innings combined in his last two starts. He's sitting at 1-4 on the season and flirting with the 5.0 ERA. This give the Cleveland offense a great opportunity to find their rhythm today. Steaming road favorite, it seems like the books agree.

Pick: Guardians ML -140 v. Royals

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[Analytics Capper]

It's very difficult to sweep a team in baseball but this is a great spot for Texas to continue their momentum against a bad pitcher in Bundy. The Rangers are getting great clutch hitting this series in front of their home crowd and I think it continues today. It's a bit scary to fade Dunning but his numbers for the season are actually better than Bundy's.

Pick: Rangers ML -115 v. Twins

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[Wagerallsports]

Let's go Texas

 

[Analytics Capper]

San Diego is coming off a horrible 12-0 loss so this is a great spot to play the overreaction. You are getting a better number here compared to if SD won yesterday so the value is good. Manea hasn't been great this season with an ERA above 4, and his team lost the last 2 times he's started, but this is a solid buy low spot against a Rockies team that has cooled off considerably. I think in elevation, the SD bats will be able to score quite easily and win the game tonight.

Pick: Padres -150 v. Rockies

 

[Analytics Capper]

A great spot for a team after a loss and a great spot for the pitcher who hasn't won in his last two starts. Strider has had a great year so far with a sub 3 ERA but just hasn't had the run support to pick up check marks in the win column. The line up has given him 9 runs in his last 3 starts but he's still giving the team solid innings. I think this is a great bounce back for the team as they will be at home looking to tie up the series with the division rival.

Pick: Braves -1 (-140) v. Mets

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[Analytics Capper]

I'm usually not a fan of Stripling but I think the Phillies are at the beginning of a tough time for them. The injuries will catch up. I think the initial adrenaline after Bryce and others went down saw the team get a couple wins. But in the long haul, it's tough for a team to continue that type of success without their main players. This is a good spot to back the home team here who is a bit healthier and playing a little better.

Blue Jays ML (-115) v. Phillies

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[Analytics Capper]

We are going against the hottest team in baseball! Seattle has won 10 straight games, but Martin Perez is on the mound for the Rangers today. His dominant season continues with a sub 3 ERA and a 7-2 record overall. Perez was selected to his first all star game. It's scary to fade the Mariners but this is a tough schedule for them from a traveling standpoint. They played a double header yesterday in Washington and had to travel to Texas and play the Rangers today. I think it's a good spot to fade them as they look to cool off after this white hot scoring stretch for them.

Pick: Rangers ML -120 v. Mariners

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[Analytics Capper]

An AC special. A classic fade the public overreaction spot. The White Sox just blew out the Twins last night on the road 12-2. Minnesota is starting the superior pitcher, the line is steaming towards them, and we all know they are not 10 runs worse than Chicago. Another regressional spot -- although Smeltzer is 4-2 on the year, he hasn't won his last 3 starts. I'm going to trust it and back the home team tonight to tie up the series.

Pick: Twins ML (-140) v. White Sox

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[Analytics Capper]

Great spot here for the vastly superior team. Fried has been much better as of late and they are playing a Washington team that is 1-9 in their last 10 games. I look for a dominant showing by Atlanta early and often.

Pick: Braves F5 -0.5 (-150) v. Nationals

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[Analytics Capper]

Bieber is one of my favorite pitchers to back in the entire league. He knows how to get quick outs and stays efficient. This is important because I know fatigue won't be an issue for him as he goes through the other teams' lineups. For this game, instead of messing around with bullpens, I'm just going to stay backing Bieber in those first 5 innings and the Guardians offense has been better as of late.

Pick: Guardians F5 -0.5 (-155) v. Tigers

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[Wagerallsports]

Great spot here for the vastly superior team. Fried has been much better as of late and they are playing a Washington team that is 1-9 in their last 10 games. I look for a dominant showing by Atlanta early and often.

Pick: Braves F5 -0.5 (-150) v. Nationals

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Good call

 

[Wagerallsports]

Good luck with today's play

 

[Analytics Capper]

Skubal is on the mound for Detroit. I lean the Tigers to get it done, but going with the safer play in my opinion with the under and two bad offenses. Detroit manufactured a measly 7 runs in the 4 games leading up to the all star break, and Oakland 11 runs in the same 4 game span. These are bad offenses that should continue to struggle with both solid pitchers today.

Pick: Tigers v. Athletics under 7.5 (Game 1)

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[Wagerallsports]

I was eyeing this game too