Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

Both solid pitchers starting tonight. I have a slight advantage to Carrasco and the Mets because of Wright's head to head history with New York hitters. I think the home team will do enough to get the win tonight in a tightly contested game.

Pick: Mets ML -120 v. Braves

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[Wagerallsports]

Mets win

 

[Analytics Capper]

It's always risky to fade the Toronto Blue Jays. In my opinion they have one of the elite line ups in the entire league. But with that being said, I am not a big fan Berrios. He has great stuff but he doesn't get quick outs and seems to always get into trouble. Minnesota is coming off a blow out loss so the spot favors the Twins.

Pick: Twins ML +110 v. Blue Jays

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[Wagerallsports]

 

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot here for the team in better form. Slight pitching advantage for St. Louis as well. Good value for Cardinals tonight!

Pick: Cardinals ML -160 v. Yankees

 

[Enikk]

Very nice AC. What a game getting the 1 run in the 1st inning and it holding up. Was this a live bet after the 1st inning run for the line to be that big??

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[Analytics Capper]

The talent gap between the two teams are no more. This is a great spot for SD to welcome their new additions on national TV. If Darvish can get through the first couple of innings unscathed I think the Padres win tonight.

Pick: Padres ML +125 v. Dodgers

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[Analytics Capper]

Bassitt is on the bump for New York tonight. He's been solid all year long even though his record doesn't suggest it. He gets quick outs and we know New York has the team behind him to keep the runs down. Reds have scored 4 and 7 games the last 2 games so it's also a nice regression spot to fade the run production tonight. Hopefully Bassitt can get the quick outs and get into the 6th inning unscathed.

Pick: Reds Team Total Under 1.5 -110

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[Analytics Capper]

I love fading Rich Hill, especially in Boston at their hitter friendly park. I think Morton will be able to get the necessary outs and the bats will do all of the work needed for the Braves. Boston has been a fade for a couple months now and we'll continue doing it until they play better.

Pick: Braves ML v. Red Sox

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[Wagerallsports]

Nice comeback by Atlanta

Good call

 

[Analytics Capper]

The Angels took the first two games of the series scoring a total of 6 runs. So it's not like they are raking the ball. It does mean the As are significantly struggling getting contact themselves. They are on a 4 game losing streak and have manufactured just 1 run through the first 2 games of the series. Fortunately for them, they don't have to see Shohei Ohtani on the mound again today. With that being said, they did manage to draw 4 walks and earn 6 hits yesterday so it wasn't that bad as the score suggests. Give me the As today in a bounce back spot and a buy low spot.

Pick: Athletics ML -125 v. Angels

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[Wagerallsports]

They are on a four game losing streak and sure to break out of it

 

[Analytics Capper]

There's not much going on in the league today. The Field of Dreams game is tonight and so I think they wanted to showcase that game. This particular game is close to a coin flip, but I'm playing an aggressive regression spot for this one. The Rockies are coming off a loss and Marquez is coming off a loss. It's a perfect buy low spot and the value is great for the home team who we all know can put the ball in play very well. Hudson will give Colorado hitters that opportunity throughout the day to do so. I fully expect another high scoring affair and hopefully Colorado can get the hits with runners in scoring position to put them over the top.

Pick: Rockies ML +100 v. Cardinals

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[Wagerallsports]

 

[Analytics Capper]

Great spot for St. Louis coming off a bad loss against the Rockies. Jordan Montgomery has been pitching very well for his teams this season with a sub 3.5 ERA. He just shut down the Yankees powerful line up and helped them win 1-0. Both teams' bullpens are fresh but I have a slight lean to the home team. The Brewers are also struggling only winning 3 of their last 9 games.

Pick: Cardinals ML -155 v. Brewers

 

[Wagerallsports]

winner

 

[Analytics Capper]

Corbin Burnes is on the mound tonight for Milwaukee and they look to get revenge on their loss from yesterday. He's also personally coming off 2 losses himself so it's a great bounceback spot for him. I think Milwaukee should win the F5 and the full game today.

Pick: Brewers ML (-140) v. Cardinals

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[Wagerallsports]

Good Call AC

 

[Analytics Capper]

Backing Martin Perez at home today. Texas had a great comeback win yesterday and I think they keep the momentum going today. Logan Gilbert is solid but I think we begin to see the over performing Mariners team come back down to earth a little bit the next few weeks.

Pick: Rangers ML +110 v. Mariners

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[Analytics Capper]

Scary to go against the red hot New York Mets. But these are the instances where you can find value -- when it's not deGrom, Scherzer, or Bassitt starting for the Mets. Carrasco has had a solid year but I think we begin to see a little bit of regression. I also give the slight advantage to the home team here, with Strider coming off a loss. This will be a tough series for the Braves but I can see Atlanta taking the first game.

Pick: Braves ML -150 v. Mets

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