The Los Angeles Dodgers have been slumping in the last week with multiple losses to the Pirates and Phillies.
Will the Dodgers rebound tonight with Julio Urias on the mound? Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Saturday, May 14, 2022- 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Are the Los Angeles Dodgers beatable this season? It seems like it. The Phillies have now won back-to-back games against the Dodgers with a 12-10 extra-innings victory.
The Dodgers have now lost or tied two straight series to the Pirates and Phillies. Both teams were below .500 before these series’ began.
And to make matters worse, left-handed ace, Clayton Kershaw is now headed to the Injured List.
The Dodgers always adapt and figure things out, but something just seems off with the Dodgers right now.
The Pitching Match-Up
The Philadelphia Phillies will pitch Ranger Suarez, a left-handed pitcher with a 3.68 ERA on the season.
- His WHIP is a bit high at 1.50 but he’s still 3-1 on the year and giving good enough starts to help the Phillies win games.
- Suarez still has a 4.96 xFIP in the last 30 days, however, and has struck out just 18.1% of batters while walking 9.5% of batters.
- Against righties, he’s giving up a .376 wOBA and ISO of ..207 but he’s been very good against lefties.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers will pitch Julio Urias, who has a 2-2 record but a 2.10 ERA.
- His WHIP sits at 1.10 and he’s been better than Suarez this season.
- Urias has a 4.66 XFIP, which is high but has also struck out 21.9% of batters while limiting walks to 5.7%.
- Righties and lefties haven’t been able to hit for much power against Urias. He’s also allowed few runners on base this season.
Who Has the More Favorable Lineup?
The Phillies haven’t been hitting lefties all that well this season. Only Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos have a high wOBA against lefties this season.
Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos, along with Harper, have high ISO numbers, but the reality is, that a .137 combined ISO and wOBA of .289 as a projected lineup isn’t going to get the job done against Urias.
The Phillies are also striking out 28.1% of the time against lefties to make matters worse.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, have a .124 ISO and wOBA of .276 against lefties but strike out just 22.3% of the time in the last 30 days using the projected lineup.
Only Freddie Freeman and Will Smith have been consistent with higher ISO and wOBA numbers against lefties.
However, the Dodgers only strike out 22.3% of the time using the projected lineup in the last 30 days.
Los Angeles will likely be able to put the ball in play more often and when you do that, good things happen.
Game Prediction
Neither offense matches up very well against lefties. Ranger Suarez has struggled against righties this season, as stated above, but only Will Smith is truly hitting lefties at a consistent rate.
The Dodgers have limited their ground ball rate in the last 30 days against lefties to 41% using the projected lineup.
That’s good stuff knowing Suarez is earning nearly 50% ground balls in the last 30 days.
But the Phillies are also limiting ground balls to 41.5% in the last 30 days using their projected lineup. The strikeouts, to me, are what will break the Phillies today.
After so much offense in the last couple of nights, the expectation is that the bats cool off and we get some solid pitching performances tonight.
The Pick
With just Bryce Harper and Will Smith hitting consistently against lefties on their respective teams, I’m looking at the under in the first five innings.
Julio Urias and Ranger Suarez have been above average this year and continue to pitch games that keep their respective teams around throughout the entirety of the game.
Even if both pitchers allow two runs, we’ll win this bet. For your MLB pick, I’m grabbing that Under 4.5 in the first five innings between the Dodgers and Phillies.
MLB Pick: Under 4.5 F5 (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
