The top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Friday’s NCAA Tournament action. Two games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Virginia Tech vs. Texas and Davidson vs. Michigan State.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread in both games. Feel free to parlay both bets in order to maximize your profit.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Texas Longhorns
Friday, March 18, 2022 – 04:30 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
Virginia Tech's Form
A team wants to be playing its best basketball at this time of year. That is what the Hokies have been doing: they have won four straight games. Three of those wins came against teams that made the NCAA Tournament: they beat Notre Dame by seven, North Carolina by 13, and Duke by 15.
This incredible stretch of success includes an ACC Tournament victory.
Guard Play
Besides form, it is a truism that a team needs to have strong guard play in order to succeed in March. In Storm Murphy, who is in his fifth season and has already collected NCAA Tournament experience, the Hokies could hardly have a more experienced point guard. His individual play helps explain the Hokies' current run of success: in addition to posing a threat from beyond the arc, he has collected 13 assists to three turnovers.
Precise passing is important to a Hokie offense whose baskets are assisted to a relatively high degree. In the half-court, Virginia Tech likes to run sundry kinds of misdirection in order to fool the defense. What misdirection leads to is a player without the ball gaining a step on his defender and requiring a crisp pass to complete, for example, a backdoor.
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In Murphy, the Hokies have the ideal distributor for this offense. It's worth mentioning that the Hokies do not only rely on guard play.
Forward Keve Aluma is really hard to stop in isolation as a result of his athleticism, versatility, and acrobatic sort of flexibility in front of the basket. In addition to being an efficient three-point shooter in conference play, his smart off-ball movement facilitates many easy baskets.
Texas' Form
In contrast to Virginia Tech, Texas is struggling at the worst possible time. The Longhorns have lost three straight games including one to TCU. Again in contrast to the Hokies, Texas is struggling at the point guard position.
Marcus Carr is an inefficient scorer, commits way too many turnovers, and vanishes most obviously against stronger opposition. Unlike his Hokie counterpart, he's playing poorly now. He's accumulated a total of 13 points and five assists to four turnovers in his last two games.
Unique Problem
The Longhorns have this unique problem of struggling defensively away from home. They allow nearly 17 more points per game on the road than at home. Clearly, they rely on the energy of the home crowd.
But even at home, they often struggle against teams that shoot the three-ball well. One recent example is Baylor which converted 40.9 percent of its three-point attempts en route to its 68-60 win at Texas.
Virginia Tech is a team that shoots the three-ball well. Three players are converting over 37 percent of their three-point attempts this season. The Hokies' strong three-point shooting, superior form, and solid guard play plus Aluma will help them beat Texas for our first NCAAB pick.
Davidson Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans
Friday, March 18, 2022 - 09:40 PM EDT at Bon Secours Wellness Arena
Uniqueness
Michigan State has an advantage in this game because it poses a challenge to Davidson that the Wildcats have not seen before. Davidson has not faced a team with the length -- Michigan State ranks 12th nationally in height -- and athleticism that the Spartans possess.
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Conversely, Michigan State is extremely used to what Davidson will try to accomplish. The Wildcats have a pair of monsters at center whom they like to surround with sundry three-point shooters. Michigan State has faced several offenses in Big Ten play that rely on this center-shooter dynamic.
Moreover, the Spartans have also dealt successfully with superior versions of this dynamic. For example, they upset the third seed, Purdue.
Perimeter Defense
The Spartans own the Big Ten's top perimeter defense as measured by their ability to limit opponents' three-point percentage.
One thing that they do is to use the hard hedge against ball-screens in order to drive the ball-handler backwards which makes it harder for him to set up a teammate for a favorable three-point shooting opportunity.
Davidson relies heavily on its three-point efficiency and three-point volume but will have to face Michigan State's uniquely well-tested perimeter defense.
Davidson's Defense
If you don't like Davidson's offense, then it's hard to like Davidson because its poor defense primarily explains why it's a 10 seed. Against its three regular season NCAA Tournament opponents, Davidson lost to a San Francisco squad that produced an efficient output and the Wildcats also surrendered 75 points to New Mexico State and 79 to Alabama.
Dayton was close to making it to the tournament and recently scored 82 on the Wildcats. They try relatively hard to prevent dribble penetration, although they will succumb to teams with athletic slashers of which Michigan State, as always, has plenty.
More Picks: Davidson vs. Michigan State NCAA Tournament First Round Preview and Pick
Malik Hall, at 6-8, is one Spartan with a surprisingly strong handle, a wide range of moves when he is being guarded inside, and the high IQ to use off-ball movement for easy baskets.
Partly by design, the Wildcats allow a lot of three-point attempts. Michigan State's excellent shooting -- it ranks 17th nationally in three-point percentage -- will make the Wildcats pay for encouraging the Spartans to shoot threes.
Parlay Picks
The Spartans' three-point shooting edge, edge in athleticism, and superior defense will help them beat Davidson. For the above reasons, parlay Virginia Tech with Michigan State. Be sure to use our trusty parlay calculator for your betting needs.
- Virginia Tech PK (-107)
- Michigan State PK (-110)
NCAAB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+269) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
