The NCAA Tournament is finally here, and every bettor is looking for value in the first round. With so many upsets, people are hoping to find the Cinderella team that will take over this March.
There is a familiarity bias with these picks. Since so many schools have unrecognizable names, people tend to go with teams that have done this before and bet against teams that have been upset in the first round. Even though no one on the team was even considering the school, Steph Curry’s run with Davidson gives them the recognition that carries weight.
Davidson plays against Michigan State, a team that has a complicated NCAA Tournament history. They’ve defied the odds to make the Final Four on plenty of occasions, but they’ve also been eliminated in the first round as a 2-seed. What will happen this year?
The NCAAB odds have this as a pick-em game, and some sportsbooks have Michigan State as a one-point favorite. What is the better bet? Let’s start with the keys for each team to win before we make an NCAA Tournament pick.
Davidson Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans
Friday, March 18, 2022 – 09:40 PM EDT at Bon Secours Wellness Arena
Keys for Michigan State to Win
Michigan State needs to stay out of foul trouble. That is one of the team’s biggest defensive weaknesses. In too many NCAA Tournament games, key players sit during runs because of foul trouble. You have to have your best players available in the biggest moments, and you can’t do that with foul trouble.
The Spartans are also bad at committing turnovers. This is an easy way to lose momentum on the biggest stage, and the Spartans need to avoid this mistake. If they end up committing pointless turnovers against Davidson, they won’t win this game.
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Michigan State’s offense is stable, but they don’t have any single player who can take over a game. In this one, someone needs to take that role. It may depend on how Davidson defends them, but some person needs to be the star with ice in their veins. That is the only way you can win nail-biters.
The Spartans have some candidates to be the hero, but we’ll have to see how the game plays out before we know who it will actually be. If no one steps up, the Spartans won’t make it to the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Keys for Davidson to Win
Davidson is great at winning the turnover battle. That needs to continue against a better opponent. If Davidson has an uncharacteristic number of turnovers, they won’t be able to turn things around with the rest of their talents.
The NCAA Tournament is all about how you start. Davidson needs a strong start in this game to gain confidence and momentum against the Big Ten opponent. We should have a strong understanding of how this game will go after the first five minutes. If Davidson starts slow, Michigan State will likely win this game.
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While Davidson needs to make the big plays, they also need to focus on the fundamentals. Michigan State can capitalize on the errors, so this will be a key for this game. If Davidson can do the little things well, they could win this game with a late stretch in the final minutes.
This is a great college basketball matchup, and it could bust plenty of NCAA Tournament brackets. What is the best pick for this game?
NCAA Tournament Prediction
This is a toss-up game, and I don’t love the value. However, Michigan State is the better team on paper. If this were a simple game in the regular season, I would confidently pick Michigan State to win and cover. However, the uncertainty that comes with the NCAA Tournament makes this one interesting.
Michigan State loses because of personal errors. They don’t lack talent. In key moments, they lack discipline. That is a hard thing to fix this late in the season.
I don’t love the NCAAB pick, but I’m going to take Davidson to cover the spread. This could truly go either way, so I’ll take the underdog. If I’m flipping a coin, I might as well be rooting for the team looking to make an upset. No one wants to root for a seven-seed to barely edge out a 10-seed.
NCAAB Pick: Davidson +1 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
