The quarterfinals begin for the women today at the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells. The women will play two matches today, and two tomorrow, setting up for the semifinals on Thursday. Let’s take a look at the WTA odds to find a winning tennis pick.
Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys
Wednesday, March 16, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Stadium 1
Iga Swiatek
Iga Swiatek entered this tournament on a winning streak after claiming the title in Doha. The world number four was absolutely dominant against rival Anett Kontaveit in the Doha final to claim that title. She has needed some time to warm up here however at Indian Wells.
Swiatek has dropped the first set in all three of her wins here in Indian Wells. After losing the first set, the score lines for the rest of Swiatek’s sets are 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-1, 6-2, and 6-3. For whatever reason, it takes Swiatek about a set at Indian Wells to really get into form. But once she gets warmed up, she has been absolutely dominant.
Iga Swiatek is the highest-ranked player remaining in the draw here in Indian Wells. She has become the favorite to win the tournament by WTA odds. Swiatek has an excellent mix of defense and offense. Swiatek can defend with the best of them and rarely makes unforced errors.
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She can also take advantage of mistakes by opponents and blast high pace winners from the baseline. With the form that she is displaying (after dropping the first set of course), she looks poised to dominate the WTA tour for many years.
Iga Swiatek's most recent match was a three-set winner over former Grand champ champion Angelique Kerber. Swiatek took advantage of break-point opportunities converting 66% (8-12) of her break point chances.
When Swiatek is this strong on return of serve, it is tough to keep up with her potent mix of offense and defense. But she will face her toughest test on the return of serve in this tournament so far, against the hard-hitting Madison Keys.
Madison Keys
Madison Keys dropped a set to Misaki Doi in her opening-round match but has cruised in her second two matches. Keys followed that up with straight set victories over Alison Riske and Harriet Dart. Keys opposition has not been top-level, but she is taking advantage of her opportunities.
Keys is one of the hardest hitters on the tour. She has one of the fastest serves and can dial-up pace from her forehand that can rival the men. When Keys is on, she can hit through any player, even on the slowest of hard courts.
Keys' struggle with consistency is the only thing keeping her out of the top five in the world. Keys has all the talent, but she can suffer long stretches where she fails to find the court with her groundstrokes. Keys' inability to prevent unforced errors has been her Achilles heel for her whole career.
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This will be a very fun matchup today. Keys high powered game against Swiatek’s balanced game. Swiatek can usually dial-up more pace than her opponents, so this will be a different situation for her to not be the hardest-hitting player on the court. Yet she is quite adept at defending and she could slip into this new role comfortably.
Swiatek’s strategy will be to extend rallies and tried to coax errors out of Keys. Swiatek will need to be tenacious on the defensive end to draw these errors out of Keys. Coaches who have studied Madison's game understand that consistency and stellar defense are the way to beat the big hitter.
Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys who played once before. They met last May, in Rome, and Swiatek was able to prevail 7-5, 6-1. This match was on Swiatek’s best surface, that of clay. I don't think it's all that instructive or predictive for today's match.
The Pick
For my tennis picks, I like this match to go 'over' with Madison Keys’ big serves, she should hold serve more easily than any opponent Swiatek has faced recently. Keys’ power is tough to prepare for, and can sometimes be unsettling.
Given Swiatek’s predilection for dropping the first set this week, I would not be surprised if she took a little while to figure out the way that Keys plays here today. While I don't know if Keys will have enough to get the victory, I do believe it can be a very close match.
Our best bet for today's WTA quarterfinal is Iga Swiatek/Madison Keys 'over' 20.5 games.
WTA Pick: Iga Swiatek/Madison Keys Over 20.5 games (-104) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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