The Memphis Grizzlies beat the NBA odds in Game 1, but the Golden State Warriors won straight-up. Will Tuesday be any different?
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tuesday, May 3, 2022 – 09:30 PM EDT at FedExForum
The Memphis Grizzlies beat the spread~! Just like those loveable Cincinnati Bengals at Super Bowl LVI, the underdog Grizz (+2 away) cashed in last Sunday versus the Golden State Warriors – but it was Golden State doing their best L.A. Rams impersonation, winning 117-116 to take Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal.
There’s no reason to switch our NBA picks at this point. Memphis are still available as 2-point road dogs at Heritage Sports as we go to press, and the BMR consensus reports show 82 percent of early bettors pounding the Grizz. It’s a moral imperative.
Ja 4:20
If you’re relatively new to NBA betting, you might be unfamiliar with some of the old-school methods handicappers use to suss out value.
Join Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
Market size is key; there are a lot of Golden State fans out there who are more than happy to throw a few uneducated dollars at their heroes.
The Grizzlies? They have their local fanbase and John Hollinger, and that’s about it.
Here’s what all those filthy NBA casuals missed during the regular season:
- Memphis: 56-26 SU, 52-29-1 ATS
- Golden State: 53-29 SU, 41-37-4 ATS
The Dubs went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS versus the Denver Nuggets in the first round, while the Grizz (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) had a harder time of it versus the Minnesota Timberwolves – partly because Ja Morant went 4-for-20 from downtown.
Morant made up for that in Sunday’s opener by shooting a perfectly normal 4-for-11 from deep en route to 34 points, 10 points, and nine rebounds.
Positive regression strikes again. Anyway, as we get deeper into the playoffs, we expect more and more casual bettors to flood the marketplace and bet on the large-market favorites, giving value to the Grizzlies of the world.
Check Out: BMR’s Sports Betting Forum
That’s why many pro bettors wait until this time of year before they start pounding the NBA odds board. Small margin, small bet; big margin, big bet.
Forget About Dray
“But what about Draymond Green?” Sure, Green was ejected during the first half of Game 1 for doing Draymond Green things.
But Memphis didn’t have Steven Adams (health and safety protocols) available for the opener.
There’s a good chance Adams will suit up in Game 2, and he played very well against Golden State during the regular season, helping the Grizz take the series 3-1 SU and ATS.
Check Out Our Video Section: Today’s Picks of the Day
I should also mention that FiveThirtyEight project Memphis to win Tuesday’s game by three points.
Maybe we can’t give those projections as much weight now that the postseason has begun, but at least Nate Silver’s computers have those first-round games to work with.
Let’s roll with the standard 2-team underdog-Under parlay for Game 2, and may the sphere be with you.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies +2 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
NBA Pick: Under 227.5 (-119) with GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
